Originally posted on 10/16/2012:

^ To be fair, Oregon only didn't cover the spread in its first few games because they were like 49-0 at halftime and sent in their scrubs to play the 2h.

Oregon doesn't seem to be concerned about covering the spread as long as the game is out of reach. 9-10 points is within reach so I would say that the soft defenses responsible for their opponents' scores in those games isn't a factor.

You want to bet on what they're capable of doing and expected to do under the circumstances. This means throwing out a lot of irrelevant data.