Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=16403716'>posted</a> on 10/16/2012:

-3 1/2 UL Lafayette

Cajun Back Up QB>>> Cajuns Terrance Broadway completing 45-of-77 passes for 612 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception

The Write Up:
The first thing to look at is how efficient each team is when it comes to total yards and average scoring. North Texas averages 380 yards of offense each game, but only has an average score of 19.5. This means they are below average offensively and do not see the end zone very often. On the other hand, UL-Lafayette is at the median of college football YPG (yards per game), averaging 31 more than UNT, but they average twice as many points, at 38 a game. This means ULL is far more efficient at reaching the end zone than North Texas. Not only are they more efficient, but ULL averages 5.0 YPR (yards per run) while UNT gives up 5.2 YPR, which means the Ragin Cajuns will win the battle in the trenches and keep the pressure off their quarterback. Another factor to look at is turnovers. While both teams are on the positive side of turnovers this season, North Texas is only at +4, while UL-Lafayette is at +8. Once again, an underlooked statistic that ULL is twice as good as UNT in. While being evenly matched on paper, UL-Lafayette outscores their opponents on average 38-24, while UNT is outscored by their opponents on average 19-26. Also, ULL has won five years in a row against UNT, including three in a row in Denton, so home field advantage is a non-issue here.

While the betting public is looking at these two teams as being marginally equal and taking the home team getting points, a sharper bettor will look at the factors overlooked by the public and see the value that others do not see. When analyzed a little bit more, the sharp bet is clearly on the favorite here. Add in the fact that teams favored by 3 1/2 points in college football this season are hitting at 73% and this is a Tuesday night gift for the betting world.