Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=16137638'>posted</a> on 09/24/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by hotelis View Post
wtt, can you comment gaurani game a little? why do you think it could go over 2?
3 things i usually look at to put into my formula i have weather to bet the over or pass since i dont like betting unders. The odds. The odds on the over are dropping and money is going that way. Two i usually look at average goals scored vs average goals against and average that out. The other thing i look at is who the book thinks will win. This sounds ridicoulous but it works for me. in this case the fav is -.5 -134 which means the book thinks it should win pretty easily by 1. I see Sol in this game scoring a goal which means Gurani would need to score 2. The other line is over 2.5 -115 but if i can get it at 2 for the above price i will do that in case of a 1-1. My formula might sound silly but its how i do things. I get screwed because of lineups, weather and other factors that i dont know about. I havent been doing soccer for a long time since i live here in the states, but starting to learn. There are so many leagues its hard to keep up.