Originally posted on 09/29/2012:

Big Al McMordie


- BIG AL's 91% NCAA FB ELITE INFO GAME OF THE MONTH! -


Football NCAAF
Game Date/Time: September 29, 2012, 7:00 pm(PST) Matchup: Oregon State Beavers @ Arizona Wildcats


Take: Arizona Wildcats


At 10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Oregon St. The Beavers have opened the season with two straight upsets over ranked opponents, and are now in the Top 25 for the first time in almost two years, but I look for Mike Riley's crew to come up short in the desert. Last week, Arizona was blanked 49-0 by Oregon, but that game was on the road in Eugene; in the three games prior to that, Arizona won by an average score of 46-18. And it's not as if Arizona failed to move the football. It got inside the Red Zone six times, but turned it over four of those six opportunities (plus one turnover outside the Red Zone for a total of 5 TOs). But Arizona will no doubt move the ball against Oregon St, which gave up 444 yards of offense last week to UCLA. And one of the things I love to do is play against single digit road underdogs (or PK) off back to back upsets, if they were a 7-point (or greater) underdog in their last game. These teams have failed to cover the spread 91% of the time over the past 33 seasons, as they're an awful 2-20 ATS. Also, since 1980, .750 (or better) teams are a solid 71.4% off shutout losses, if they're matched up against a foe off back to back wins. Lay the small number with Rich Rodriguez' men. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.