Originally posted on 09/27/2012:

First off, you should learn how to calculate hold rates properly. A 121.64 market has a theoretical hold of 17.79%

Secondly, Pinnacle is not always the least expensive in regards to futures, nor are they always the "sharpest". I've seen them have hold rates as low as 8% for 150 entry golf fields when they include a field bet, and I've seem them drift upwards towards 15-20% on some things. I've seen 5 Dimes offer conference futures markets with holds around 5%. I once calculated 5 Dimes hold on Champions League futures and it was 2% But that's besides the point.

When golf season is in full bloom, you can get odds to finish Top 10, Top 5, and win outright on 150 golfers every week. You can also get first round leader props on 150 golfers. Do you think these bookmakers are studying weather reports on the difference of weather conditions on a course from 7am, 11am, and 3pm? Do you think they're analyzing whose teeing off in the morning vs. the afternoon and making adjustments? Do you think they know if certain second tier golfers have an affinity for a certain type of layout that might make that players true price different than just being based on recent form? The answer is NO. Are there golf handicappers spending 20 hours a week doing things things looking to get a 10%-15% edge, the answer is YES. Are there many of these, NO.

When I bet an each way (Win/Place) on Porto to win the Champions League in 2004 at 33-1, was there an edge on that bet even though the total market was probably at 118%? YES. Did I also get lucky, YES. When I had an each way on Villareal at 40-1 to win the Champions League in 2006, was there an edge on that bet? YES. Was I unlucky to miss a penalty kick in the semi-finals YES.

When Europa League futures are put out at the final 32 with a hold of 12%, do they usually overvalue Premiership teams like they did last year with Man City and Man U who really could have cared less, YOU BET. Do bookmakers analyze the side of the draw teams are on, and calculate the true chances of 4 teams on one side of the draw? SOMETIMES.

I could go on for 25 paragraphs, but with you, I don't think there's any point. Judging by various posts in other threads you've made, you are a very negative person, always looking to scoff at anyone's theories pertaining to anything. You're the type most of us loathe, the type who thinks they are the smartest guy in the room, but almost never is. Someone who always uses sarcasm to try and embarrass another posters views, because you feel it's erroneous. Fact is, you're usually embarrassing yourself as your blatant lack of comprehension is magnified by your hilarious self -assurance when being wrong, obviously masking a deep seeded lack of self-worth brought on by the fact that probably no one can stand you.

As a final note, you think 1 player out of 10,000 will flip 13 heads in a row? Well I'll tell you what, you take 15% juice of the top, and offer me 8500-1 on doing just that, and I'll make 500,000 $1 bets on doing just that. Can you tell me your expected win/loss (easy), and can you tell me the EXACT % chance that I will win $25,000 or more making these bets (a little harder)?

Perhaps there are some simple math things you don't know?