Originally posted on 09/26/2012:

people falling into the neuvo forum speak of beating the closing number. That has almost zero impact on whether you are 'right' or 'wrong'. The closing number isnt even the best available most of the time. But it is the new standard for people who want to sound smart to come out with new stuff all the time as ways to win. This beating the closing number is the new thing these days.

Just because you beat a closer doesnt mean youre going to win, despite what everyone wants to think. I ran the numbers, and I posted them here and at EoG. Getting even the BEST available number isnt going to give you a positive expectation beyond maybe 4.5%. Its something like 200 sides in 4500 or so total games since 1996 where even getting the very best odds (discounting vig) will turn a loser into a push or a win. Thats for both favs and dogs. Some of those results are obviously going to be common games, but I am not going to repost something I have already posted. But in terms of actual individual games it is something like 147 or so. So in reality its more like 3.25%. Just looking at generic closers it drops it to below 4 and 3 respectively. Thats also EVERY game. So results will vary obviously.

Worrying about this garbage is forum fodder. Learn to pick winners and worry about the lines after you can do that consistently. If you cant pick 50% without a spread then how can you hope to beat a game that has one? And dont say 'dogs get point'. Because dogs 'cover' (lose but not by enough) roughly 25% of the time. So if youre picking dogs and they dont win SU then youre going be going 1 for 4 most of the time.