Last I counted USF had over 14 players shunned @ the last moment by FSU before signing day several years ago. USF is also full of athletes who were directly recruited by FSU, but chose USF because they knew they had a better chance to start@ USF. USF suffers from sub-par coaching and this is what's holding them back, not on field talent. Holtz will eventually get it together (I am being an optimist)
Some of these kids are related on opposite teams and played at rival high schools. These factors are often overlooked and are more commonly known as "intangibles" and the #1 reason people loose that "it should have been a lock" etc.
would it surprise me that FSU covers?...no, would I be surprised that they SU loose to USF?...Heck no.
I've played @ a very competitive level, and I know very well about intangibles and what so called "experts" know dog crap about and is the reason why locks don't workout and instate games are chalk full of intangibles you would never understand.
I took the time to help you not berate your bet, I hope you take it as friendly advice.
Goodluck either way.