Originally posted on 09/08/2012:

The answer is simple

In general you'd expect spreads to have more value (or cost you less...) since the vig is lower than moneylines.

The spread and moneylines are simple derivatives of each other. Example:

Pr(Covering 3.5 pts) = Pr(Covering 0 pts) - Pr(Losing by 1 or 2 or 3) = Moneyline - Pr(Losing by 1 or 2 or 3)

So if you like a team and want to know whether to lay the points or take the moneyline, you need to know what the 1 2 and 3 are worth.

If you shop enough sometimes you'll find the best value is in the spread and sometimes you'll find the best value in the moneyline. It's like asking whether you should buy corn or Iowa farmland.