It's always interesting to me to look back at where we started with the first Grand Slam in Australia and to see where we are when we head into the final one, the US Open. Going into Australia, the talk surrounded whether or not Novak Djokovic could replicate his form of 2011. How many Slams would he win this year after taking three of four in 2011? The other big question, would Roger Federer ever add to his record Slam total after failing to register a single Slam title in 2011? Nine months later, we have both with a Slam title in their pocket this year, but both in very different positions. Federer is the unquestioned best player on tour this season, while Djokovic has played consistently - but nothing close to his 2011 level. Rafael Nadal won't compete this year due to injury and the intrigue surrounds Andy Murray. Murray who made the Wimbledon Final, but but faded to Federer. Murray who then came back and won the Gold Medal in London. Is that the sort of win that can get him to believe he can with a Grand Slam? Is his knee healthy enough for a long run? Plenty of good banter as play opens on Monday.
FEDERER QUARTER
Roger Federer enters the tournament as the #1 seed. For that, he opens against Donald Young. A nice reward for returning the top, what should be an absolute crush job for Federer. The other high seed in this quarter is Berdych on the bottom at #6. Let's stay up in Federer's half first. The first two rounds should be routine with Authom or Phau waiting in the 2nd. The foursome below Federer has Verdasco as the best seed at #25. He opens against Machado with American Robby Ginepri going against Albert Ramos in the other pairing. Let's go ahead and chalk up three rounds of relative ease for Federer. The other part of this half of the quarter is headed by Giles Simon, the 16th seed and Mardy Fish who is 25th. Fish opens against Soeda. The winner draws Davydenko or qualifier, Pella. Simon starts with Michael Russell in what could be a tough match. The winner gets Karlovic or Jimmy Wang. Karlovic has been out with injury for a bit, so it will be interesting to see what sort of shape he is in. If he's fit enough, he should overpower Wang easily - but if he's not ready, he could be an early exit candidate.
On the bottom half, Berdych comes off a nice run in Winston-Salem that could have boosted his low confidence. He opens with Goffin. On a different surface, that might be a pretty good battle. On the hard court, Berdych should dispatch him in four or less. His 2nd rounder could be Istomin or Zopp. Neither is quite a gimme, but neither is quite in the greatest form right now. It's especially disappointing for Istomin who looked solid @ Wimbledon, but has failed to follow up on the hard courts this Summer. This is a surface that should enhance his game, but given his struggles, he'll probably feel good about winning his opener. The foursome above this features Sam Querrey as the 27th seed. He opens against Yen-Hsun Lu. That could prove to be tricky if Querrey doesn't start strong. Ramirez-Hidalgo and Devvarman feature in the other 1st rounder. Neither will be expected to move past the 2nd round. Rounding out this half are seeds, Almagro at #11 and Mayer at #22. Almagro's bracket is a tough one. Stepanek first up and then Mahut or Petzschner. I think he is underrated on this surface, but he skipped the Summeer hard court season and flopped in the 1st round last year. Prime upset candidate, but also a guy who could surprise and make a run if he survives the opener. Mayer goes against Sock. Sock will be a fan favorite, but he will have to have one of the matches of his career to pull off another 1st round win @ the Open.
Upset Watch
Authom over Phau
Wang over Karlovic
Stepanek over Almagro
Quarterfinalists
Federer, Berdych
Darkhorse
Stepanek
MURRAY QUARTER
Andy Murray by all accounts is fit for the US Open after battling a nagging knee issue during his brief participation in the US Open hard court series. He's got a very workable early draw, opening with Bogomolov. A second round encounter likely against Dodig. The third round could see him pitted against Bellucci, Andjuar, Haase or F.Lopez. None of those is going to pose a major threat to a healthy Murray. That foursome though should provide some competitive 1st and 2nd rounders. Bellucci and Andujar have never met on hard courts. Bellucci's game is a little better suited to the surface, but he's still very inconsistent. Neither Haase or Lopez has much in the way of form, but both can be dangerous when they get rolling. Haase took Murray to five sets here last year, but doesn't appear to be anywhere close to the player he showed in 2011. The winner in this one though could have the track to the 3rd round. Raonic as the 15th seed and Granollers as the 24th highlight the bottom part of this bracket. Raonic gets Giraldo first and then either Mathieu or Andreev. He should be able to make his way through. Granollers draws the American, Dennis Kudla. The winner there gets Lacko or Blake. While it's not a given, this certainly seems like it will be James Blake's last U.S. Open. Even though his play has been uneven this Summer, Blake has shown enough to expect a win in the 1st round. Granollers has been surprisingly consistent on this surface in the last two tournaments and his veteran savvy probably proves too much for Kudla. Dare I say in the 2nd round, watch out for a Blake upset. Raonic missed the US Open last Summer with an injury, so I expect him to be motivated in this spot. He played well in Toronto & Cincinatti and should be in line to meet Murray in the 4th round.
In the bottom of this quarter, Tsonga leads as the 5th seed. He has a cake draw to the 3rd round. Beck first-up. Kilzan or Falla in the 2nd. The 3rd round could potentially see fellow-Frenchman Jeremy Chardy. Even with his lackadaisical play at times, Tsonga should coast to the 3rd round with minimal effort. I wouldn't doubt he screws around and makes one of these matches more complicated than needed, but he should be there. Klizan-Falla in the 1st round should present the Challenger King, Klizan, Falla has at-times been a thorn in the side of competitors on this surface, but Klizan even with his lack of hard court experience, should have a chance to score a Grand Slam win. Chardy takes on Volandri & Ito vs. Ebden should be a competitive 1st rounder in the bracket above Tsonga's. Chardy played pretty well in Toronto & Cincy, scoring upset wins over Murray and Tsonga. This is a big tournament for him. A couple years ago, he looked like a player on the rise. He regressed quite a bit in the past year and a half, but looks poised to score a couple wins this week. He should set up for an intriguing third rounder with Tsonga. The other part of this quarter has Cilic as the 12th seed and Nishikori as the 17th. Cilic takes on Matosevic first and then it is Brands or Ungur in the 2nd round. Nishikori gets qualifier Andreozzi, while Americans Smyczek & Reynolds fight out opposite of them. Smyczek surprised me with his run through qualis, but Reynolds has dominated 5-1 head-2-head.
Upset Watch
Haase over Lopez
Blake over Granollers (2nd)
Klizan over Falla
Quarterfinals
Murray,Tsonga
Darkhorse
Cilic
FERRER QUARTER
This quarter should easily be the most entertaining and topsy-turvy. With Nadal out, Ferrer moved into the top four seeds and leads this quarter as the 4th seed. The problem for Ferrer is that this quarter has a lot of hard court savvy players. Tipsarevic as the 8th seed on the top part of the quarter plus the likes of Gasquet and Isner who both had solid runs during the Summer. Ferrer meanwhile enters this tournament as a bit of an unknown. He looked terrible against Wawrinka in his lone hard court match in Cincy. Admittedly, he does not normally play much in the build-up to the US Open ... but I've got Ferrer on upset watch in this quarter. Normally, I love him during Slam time - but I'll have to see him turn it back up a notch to think he can run through this quarter. In a different time, I would say Kevin Anderson would test him first-up. Anderson though has been struggling to win recently. He's 3-7 in his last ten, but his matches usually are competitive. If he can serve lights out, he could make things tricky. The winner goes against Gimeno-Traver or Sjisling. The foursome above this featurs Kamke against Hewitt and Youzhny against Muller. Youzhny should provide too much for Muller with his overall movement and return game. Hewitt is going to be tough to figure from round to round and I don't fancy him having to work best of five matches for long. Still, Kamke is a good match-up for him early and he did beat Youzhny in Cincinnati, so don't rule out a couple wins for the Aussie. Above this group, Gasquet leads as the 13th seed. He goes up against Montanes who shouldn't be too problematic. Melzer faces Klahn below them. Although Klahn lacks experience, Melzer could be primed for an upset. Klahn has been here before in the main draw, losing to Querrey in four sets. He won't be overwhelmed, but will need to be super sharp. The four some below figures to be competitive with Steve Johnson against Rajeev Ram and Haas vs. Gulbis in what could be a highlight 1st rounder. Johnson could be in line for his first main draw Slam win. As much as I like Ferrer, I think he's going to lose before the quarters. Youzhny has had some good Slam success and Gasquet or Haas has potential if they get rolling early.
Tipsarevic ranks as the 8th seed on the top of the quarter. My mouth waters thinking about what could be with Isner as the 9th seed on the bottom half of that bracket. It looks like a collision course, but of course those don't always work out well. Tipsarevic starts with Rufin and then could see American Brian Baker in the 2nd round. Even though Baker's form has slipped lately, he could provide a tough test. Two intriguing 1st rounders in this portion of the bracket include Zemjla and Mello along with Stebe against Troicki. Troicki should be the guy to come through to the 3rd round here, but Zemlja or Mello can take him out if he screws around. Stebe I just don't think has the game right now to win in a best of five. Isner's portion of the bracket won't be a steamroller. He has Malisse up first and while Malisse looks to be ready for vacation, he can be a tough cookie when his serve is on. Remember, Isner crashed out in the 1st round last year too. I don't expect a repeat, but he also needs to rev his game up. Kukushkin or Nieminen will be the 2nd round opponent, both less impressive than Malisse to me on this surface. The foursome above has some veterans with Kohlschreiber opening against Llodra and then youth with Dimitrov against Paire. Llodra has fallen a long way, having to go through qualis in Winston-Salem and he couldn't even do that. Kohlschreiber has been in good form this season mostly and he should come through. Dimitrov would have been an easy banker maybe a month ago for this one, but he's look awful on hard courts this summer. Paire hasn't looked much better though. This one will be interesting. I think Kohlschreiber moves through to the 3rd against Isner.
Upset Watch
Zemlja/Mello over Troicki (2nd)
Klahn over Melzer
Johnson over Ram
Quarterfinals
Tipsareivc, Isner
Darkhorse
Youzhny
DJOKOVIC QUARTER
I expect Djokovic to play with a little chip on his shoulder after flaming out in London and getting handled by Federer in Cincinnati. He's got a brilliant draw to the quarterfinals. Lorenzi in the 1st. Then Gabashvili or Dutra-Silva in the 2nd. A 3rd round meeting maybe with Benneteau or less shows the ease of which he should find the 1st week. His 1st "test" likely being in the 4th round potentially against Wawrinka or Dolgopolov - maybe Baghdatis if things get funky. In any case, the best of five format won't give those guys much of a shot against a healthy Djokovic. Djokovic's group of eight on the bottom of this bracket is arguably the weakest in the tournament to me. The eight above should provide for some better tennis. Dolgpolov as the 14th seed opens with Levine and then could be in line to face Baghdatis in the 2nd round or Bachinger. Darcis takes on Jaziri and Stakhovsky against Wawrinka in what should be a roller coaster of a match. Dolgpolov has shown the flashes again this summer of both brilliance and absolute horse shit. Which one rules this tournament? Last year he made the 4th round, losing to Djokovic. A repeat could be in the cards this year or he could tumble out as early as the 2nd round. Watch to see how his 1st round match goes. If he gets it done routinely, watch out for him. Wawrinka has played some of his better Grand Slam tennis at the US Open over the years - don't discount him from being a factor in this part of the bracket.
Up top, it's Del Potro (7) and Monaco (10) as the seeds. Del Potro comes in with a left wrist issue that he says won't hinder him after making a trip to the Mayo Clinic for a check-up. It's not a tendon or ligament issue, so it's something that may be perfectly fine for two weeks, Del Potro gets Nalbandian out of the gate. If the wrist is fine, Del Potro should work Nalbandian over as Fat Dave seems to be more of what we see at this stage. Becker against Harrison below that one. Harrison has been a little iffy this Summer and that leaves the door open for an early exit. Seppi is the 26th seed opening against Robredo in a veteran battle. Kubot takes on "I LOST TO DONALD YOUNG" Leonardo Mayer. Look for Kubot and Seppi likely to get through, although Robredo is tricky. Monaco goes up against Garcia-Lopez to open. Monaco while not at his best on this surface, does have a draw that could push him into the 3rd round at least. Fognini and Roger-Vasselin face off in the other 1st rounder. The foursome opposite of this features an All-American opener with Roddick against Rhyne Williams and Berlocq against Tomic. A Roddick-Tomic 2nd rounder is tantalizing. Tomic got a couple nice wins in Cincy, while Roddick flamed out last week in Winston-Salem to Darcis. The winner would get Monaco in the 3rd and could be a good bet to get to the 4th round.
Upset Watch
Becker over Harrison
Baghdatis over Dolgpolov (2nd)
Tomic over Roddick (2nd)
Quarterfinals
Tomic, Djokovic
Darkhorse
Tomic/Wawrinka
Futures Plays Federer to Win US Open +275
Tipsarevic to Win Quarter +475
Isner to Win Quarter +275
Just a breakdown on my "darkhorse" status too. It's not someone who I expect to win the quarter, but someone I think can go a couple rounds deeper than expected & maybe be in position to pick up the pieces if something shocking happens in that quarter.
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