[LT Profits]

Originally posted on 08/06/2012:

(This is a general question not attacking you LT)

I am just wondering if you can specify the way you go about your bets. You're looking at the price off the bat rather than the matchups and numbers? I know some guys look at trends, some look for matchups, would it be accurate to say you base your initial thoughts for your card on where you perceive value based on the price? It is obviously working I just only started betting baseball 2 years ago and can't imagine this works in the other two major sports, whilst a complex yet nuanced system that would work in baseball. Just curious, cheers.

All my bets in all sports are based on value, I handicap what percent of the time something should happen and then compare that to the actual odds. The second part is the easy part.

[cfunk]

New to the forum, didn't realize what "Nominate Post" would do. But since I created a new thread, I might as well say something. This is how you do it folks. It's all about +EV.

I've been working the +EV system for about 1.5 months now and have had good results. Rather than build my own model to handicap the expected outcome percentage, I've been using AccuScore on ESPN to give me my numbers (free since I am an Insider). I haven't been blindly following the numbers, but if I find a number with +EV of greater than 6% or so, I look further into the game (recent game log, pitching stats, weather, injuries, etc.), and then decide to bet or not. I've hit 58% of my Over/Under plays since I started doing this. I know it's rudimentary but as long as I'm getting results I'm going to stick with it.

I've got a question, hopefully it has a simple and quick answer: How much are 0.5 runs worth on the betting line? Sometimes AccuScore might give the percentages on say 8. But the line at the book is 7.5. Is there a simple way to adjust the odds or percentage so I can measure the value?

Also, what do you do on even number totals (7, 8, 9, etc.)? I usually end up not playing them because I don't get an +EV because there is a percentage missing on the expected percentages (the percentage that the game total actually lands on the line).

Any advice for a rookie?