Originally posted on 07/13/2012:

Statistically analyzing two of the best teams in baseball (New York Yankees + Texas Rangers) you will find that the NYY are in one run games (24.7 %) of the time while Texas is (23.25 %). This means that betting both sides of the Run Line every single night, you will hit around 75% of the time with these two high scoring offenses. Now obviously when a 1 run game happens you will lose both bets, but analyzing the first half of the season neither NYY or TEXAS lost in 1 run games more than 2 times in a row. By placing 100 dollar bets on both sides of the run line I finished the first half of the season up close to 2,000 dollars.

So lets track the second half of the season and see what happens. I have already withdrew the 1,800+ dollars so from here on out this is basically an experiment to see if this is long term profitable.

Tonights plaý

NYY -1.5 at +155 (Bet 100.00 to win 155.00)
LAA -1.5 at +170 (Bet 100.00 to win 170.00)

TEX -1.5 at +115 (Bet 100.00 to win 115.00)
SEA -1.5 at +245 (Bet 100.00 to win 245.00)

Often times when the line is highly favorable to a team such as TEXAS tonight I would drop the fourth bet (SEA -1.5) because of how unlikely it is that SEA wins tonight by more than 1. I ran the numbers both ways and it turns out it would have been more profitable to just leave all four bets in place because of the profit margin when SEA does pull off the upset. I could have raked in 3,488.00 had I let the math do the work the entire first half of this season.

Thoughts?