Originally posted on 07/07/2012:

I haven't done any of this so I can't give anything specific.

It seems to me that comparing my models line with the opening line would provide some useful information.

The linemaker uses the same statistics that I am using. He maybe shades the line based on his knowledge and experience. This makes the open a relatively "pure" number. At this point, I don't have to worry about manipulation, sharps vs squares, efficient market theory, etc.

There might be information that I could get from comparing my line vs the open. For example, the linemaker knows that people overbet last years Super Bowl champ. He shades the line a half point or a point to take advantage of this. If the open on the champ is always a point or so more of a favorite on the champ than my model, maybe this is happening. It might not provide a bet but it would be useful to know about it.

I could look at the at cases where my line differs from the open and look for a pattern. I could look at the final results of my model in cases where my model agrees with the open and cases where it disagrees. Maybe mine performs better when it agrees with the opener.

It seems to me that if my model is as good as the linemaker at creating the open line, this would be an indication I have a pretty good model. It would give me more confidence in my model.

The linemaker has to post a line in every game. I don't have to play every game. I am starting from a good base with my model and can then try to look for specific bets.