When looking at Wimbledon, it should be noted that the Big Four (Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Murray) have not made the semifinals as a group. The last two years it has surprisingly been Federer who has been booted in the quarterfinals. So, that means in one of these quarters it is a good idea to look for futures that will produce an upset.
DJOKOVIC QUARTER
Djokovic is the top overall seed with Berdych waiting down on the bottom half of the quarter as the 6th overall seed. In Djokovic's half, there looks to be very little to trouble him. He will open against Ferrero. A couple years ago, this would have been a tantalizing match-up. At this stage of their careers, Ferrero is unlikely to trouble Djokovic much. Ryan Harrison and Yen-Hsun Lu get another crack at each other. Harrison beat him in straights in Eastbourne, but Lu is a tough read on the surface as he showed @ Queens Club when he turned it on out of nowhere and made the quarters. The bracket below is interesting with Stakhovsky against Stepanek and Becker and Blake. None will trouble Djokovic, but all the 1st rounders could provide some pretty tight matches. Stakhovsky had an oblique issue in London, so Stepanek should be counted on to get through here with the better game for grass. In the other portion of the top half, Granollers is seeded 24th and gets Troicki who has had a poor 2012 overall outside of one week in Dusseldorf on clay. The Challenger King, Martin Klizan, gets Chela in just his third ever grass court match. Chela has been awful, 2-8 in his last ten, so this match is one to avoid. Chardy and Volandri along with Leo Mayer and Juan Monaco finish out his half. This portion of the draw to the 3rd round looks like it should be Granollers or Troicki's to take, but there is very little confidence on grass from most of the players here so anyone advancing shouldn't surprise.
Berdych gets the enigmatic Ernests Gulbis to open. Gulbis has made it a routine to lose in the 1st round of Slams and given his form this season, I'd expect nothing less this year. Berdych is likely to have a much tougher route to the quarters as he will face off against Florian Mayer, Tursunov or Petzschner likely in the 3rd round. His 2nd rounder against either Bolelli or Janowicz should be a rather routine day, atlhough Bolelli could at least provide Berdych with some tough sets. Back in the day, Tursunov used to be a good threat on grass and it looked like after making the Nottingham Challenger final that he could have been on the rise. Two quick exits in London & Hertogenbosch inspire little confidence. Mayer is no grass king, but he has won a few at Wimbledon over the years. If Tursunov turns his game up, that could be a great 1st round match. If he shows up looking more like he did against Petzschner this past week, Mayer could whip him. All in all though, I always have a hard time trusting Mayer. The other part of this bracket includes Almagro as the #12 and Gasquet as the #19. Almagro went with no grass court prep this year. He gets a tricky Olivier Rochus first-up and while from a talent standpoint, Almagro should win - I do expect Rochus' solid grass court resume to provide him with some chances to scare the Spaniard. Rochus has taken sets off Del Potro & Djokovic in the last two Wimbledons. Rufin and Darcis battle below these two. Berlocq vs. Bemelmans and then Gasquet opens against Kamke. Gasquet's grass prep was poor in the loss to Matosevic, but he's clearly got the game best suited to this surface. His last two trips to the All-England Club have yielded 4th round finishes. Gasquet seems to treat the tournament with respect seeing as he has not had the opportunity to play at it every season due to injury or suspension. If he shows up ready, I like him to emerge into the 4th round and play Berdych.
Quarterfinal Match-Up: Djokovic-Berdych
Potential Outsider(s): Gasquet
1st Round Upset Watch: Lu over Harrison, Rochus over Almagro
FEDERER QUARTER
There is some talent in this quarter opposing Federer, but it would be a major upset if Federer failed to make the quarters for the eleventh time in 13 trips to Wimbledon. Keep in mind though that Federer has failed at the quarterfinal round two straight years here. Fognini draws Llodra below Federer & Ramos. I think you definitely have to give Fognini a look if he's offered at plus money. Llodra used to be very good on grass, but this year has not been good to him on any surface as he has battled back issues and is also awaiting the birth of a child. A good 1st rounder potentially with Muller and Benneteau also in this portion of the draw and then Russell against Menendez. The winner of Muller-Benneteau should be counted on to make the 3rd round against Federer. Neither should trouble him. The one guy who is lurking in the bottom portion of Federer's bracket who might provide some interest is Gilles Simon. His game has troubled Federer in the past. Simon though will have plenty of landmines early that he may not survive. He opens against fellow Frenchman Mathieu. They have not met in four years, but Mathieu has beaten Simon four times out of four. Simon dropped his only grass prep to Bolelli. Malisse plays Matosevic in the match above Simon's draw in what could be a serve-fest. Malisse looked good in both grass court prep tourneys, falling in the quarters of both. Matosevic surprised Gasquet in Eastbourne and has shown a solid serve at-times. Consistency though is not his strong suit. I like Malisse's experience on grass to carry him through and set up what should be a cracking 2nd rounder with Simon. I think Malisse has the goods to pull the upset if he serves well. Verdasco is also in this portion of the draw, kind of a forgotten man. His draw is cake for a 3rd round appearance, but is anything really easy for him now?
The bottom half of the draw is headed by 8th seed Janko Tipsarevic and #11 seed, John Isner. Tipsarevic will be forced to be at his best to open as he gets unseeded David Nalbandian. Nalbandian found good form @ Queens Club before his meltdown in the title match. This will be their 3rd clash of the year, the other two being split on hard courts. Tipsarevic has lost in the 2nd or 1st round in two of his last three trips to Wimbledon. The survivor will take on either Sweeting or Starace and as long as they haven't over extended themselves from Round 1, should be in line to get to the 3rd round. Also in this bracket, Youzhny gets The Human Punching Bag a.k.a. Donald Young with Cipolla against Cervantes in the other 1st rounder. Youzhny was solid in Halle before Federer ripped him up in the semis. When he is healthy and playing well, the Russian is a danger on this surface. He could be a surprise 4th rounder with a favorable draw. Up top, Isner opens against Falla. Everyone of course assumes Isner will win and Mahut will beat Lorenzi to set-up some more stupid media revisiting of their epic Wimbledon encounter from 2010, even though their 2011 encounter in Round 1 was a straight forward Isner win in 3. You can't tell me this draw is random. Isner went with no grass prep this year again. It shouldn't hurt him as Falla was destroyed by Muller in the Dutch build-up tourney in straights and Isner provides better movement than Muller. Mahut may get a test from Lorenzi, but his serve likely will get him through - but it may take longer than expected. The other first rounders in this portion of the draw are Andreev vs. Goldin and Istomin vs. Seppi. The Istomin-Seppi match is interesting. Seppi is 3-0 against Istomin on different surfaces. Istomin though shows improvement and has KO'ed some tough players in his brief encounters at Wimbledon, including Wawrinka in 2010 and Kohlschreiber last year. Also recall in 2010, he was up 2-1 on Berdych before losing in 5. While everyone will be looking to Isner and Mahut in the 2nd round, watch out for the winner of Istomin-Seppi to possibly sneak through to the 3rd. Slight edge to Istomin.
Quarterfinal Match-Up: Federer-Youzhny
Potential Outsider(s): Youzny, Nalbandian, Istomin
1st Round Upset Watch: Fognini over Llodra, Golding over Andreev, Istomin over Seppi, Nalbandian over Tipsarevic
MURRAY QUARTER
As I mentioned to start, the Big Four have never completed the list of semfinalists at Wimbledon and this looks like the quarter to look for the outside to crash the party. Murray is always a guy that bettors love to hate and always believe he'll flop at Slams. I can't argue against that in the latter stages of Slams, but he's often overlooked as a potential semifinalist because of that perceived opinion. Let's not overlook Murray making the semis three straight years @ Wimbledon. Let's also not overlook that his quarter has been getting increasingly more difficult with the rise and consistency of David Ferrer who looms on the other side as the 7th seed and champion from the Dutch grass build-up. I also find it real scary reading about eight pain killing injections that Murray had pumped into his back in the Spring. Also lurking is Del Potro as the 9th seed, 12th seed Marin Cilic and a bevy of big servers like Raonic, Anderson and Eastbourne Champ, Andy Roddick. This shapes up as a very difficult quarter. Starting with Murray's draw, he opens against Davydenko and then faces the winner of Karlovic-Sela. Given Davydenko's decline, Murray should survive and prove to be too much for his 2nd round opponent - although Karlovic is always scary if his serve is having one of those A++ days. Right above this section is Dimitrov battling Anderson again in a great 1st rounder + Baghdatis against Montanes. The winner of Dimitrov-Anderson should have a legit shot to move to the 3rd round. Don't discount Baghdatis continuing to flounder even against Montanes. Montanes has been rolling on clay, skipping any grass prep. That hasn't stopped him from winning three of his last four 1st rounders @ Wimbledon. Cilic opens with Stebe and has a favorable second round match-up against either Kubot or Ito. Kubot has had a couple good performances in back-to-back Wimbledons, so Cilic will have to earn the W. Querrey and Pospisil along with Raonic and Giraldo fill out the rest of this part of the bracket. A 2nd round serve fest with Querrey and Raonic could loom. Raonic is always a danger and in his second foray at the All-England Club, he should be at full health. Don't be shocked if his serve is popping if he pushes into the 4th round.
Ferrer leads the charge in the top half of this quarter. He'll enter in fine form, but seeking his first quarterfinal at Wimbledon. He's been knocked out in the 4th round the last two years. His work rate alone should be enough for him to get back to the 4th round again with Roddick floating as the only real threat and I don't rate him as much of one. Ferrer should knock off Brown in the opener with relative ease with de Schepper or Bachinger waiting in round two. Also, a fairly routine win in the making. Odesnik and Phau face off with Roddick and Jamie Baker in the other 1st rounder. Although Roddick wasn't exactly dominant in Eastbourne in route to a title, he should have enough to get to a third round meeting with Ferrer. The bottom part of Ferrer's draw has Del Potro as the 9th seed. He gets the declining Dutchman Haase to open and is likely to dispatch him in four sets at the most. Soeda or Kunitsyn waits next and won't provide a ton of resistance. You've got Serra and Kuznetsov and an interesting match between Nishikori and Kukushkin in this bracket as well. Nishikori could proove a dangerous floater if he is healthy and able to stand up to the grind of five sets. That remains to be seen since he hasn't played competitively since late April due to injury. He also has to get the monkey off his back, having never won a main draw match at this tournament. Given that he skipped any sort of grass prep, the advice would be wait and see what he shows against Kukushkin before investing any coin on him in any way, shape or form. Given the uncertainty of most of this section due to form or injury, Del Potro should have a chance to at least make it back-to-back 4th round finishes at Wimbledon, but also beware that his knee could still be a concern.
Quarterfinal Match-Up: Ferrer-Raonic
Outsider(s): Raonic, Anderson
1st Round Upset Watch: Montanes over Baghdatis
NADAL QUARTER
Nadal should enjoy a fairly nice route to the semifinals with Tsonga looming as the big test. Nadal has turned Wimbledon into another one of his personal playgrounds with five straight finals appearances and two titles. He opens against Bellucci and should be able to parlay that into another easy win in round two over Dodig or Rosol. The bracket above Nadal's features a great 1st round clash between Germans, Haas and Kohlschreiber. Haas has been in blistering form lately with a title in Halle, while Kohlschreiber has disappointed mostly in 2012. Kohli has a poor track record here too, losing to Istomin in the 1st round last year. Haas has looked motivated in the past few months and will look to inspire another shock semifinal run like he had in 2009. Zopp and Jaziri in the other 1st rounder will likely be fodder for the winner of the all-German clash. I think it's Haas and Nadal in round three. The other part of the Nadal bracket has Dolgopolov and Feliciano Lopez as the seeds. Lopez proved a danger on grass last year as a surprise QF participant. Even though his form is a bit iffy, Lopez should ease past Nieminen in the opener and then could face Mr.Comeback, Brian Baker in round two. Baker has been one of the great stories of 2012 with an ATP title in Nice and a good showing to push Gilles Simon to five sets at the French Open. He worked through qualis to get to the main draw, but has just one main draw win at the ATP level on grass. I can see him beating Machado, but Lopez should be too good in round two. Ebden against Paire and Bogomolov against Dolgpolov. Dolgpolov has struggled, but at least should be good for one win. Paire's serve makes him dangerous. This portion of the bracket looks open for anyone who can be consistent to get to the 3rd round. Slightest edge to Lopez, but not overly confident with that. Nadal's toughest match in route to the quarters could be the 3rd round against Haas or Kohlschreiber.
Up top, Tsonga is the 5th seed. He has Hewitt first-up and based on recent results, I would be hard pressed to say Hewitt will push Tsonga much. Tsonga has made the semis and quarters the last two years at Wimbledon. He wasn't great in grass prep, losing to Dodig - but inspiration was likely low. The question of course is will Tsonga be able to turn it on and continue to distance himself from the loss to Djokovic at Roland Garros? He may have to find his A game early against Roger-Vasselin or Garcia-Lopez in round two. Both aren't mugs. Below this stands Lacko and Ungur along with Wawrinka and Melzer. Melzer and Wawrinka is interesting. Melzer has been bad for months, while Wawrinka's grass pedigree the last couple years is awful. In the bottom of the Tsonga part of this draw is 10th seed Mardy Fish who is looking to shake off his health scare. The question is what can Fish offer after being out for two months? He has Ramirez-Hidalgo first-up. A win there would see him against Ward or Andujar, so if Fish has any fitness - he could conceivably make the 3rd round. Beck and Levine + Tomic and Goffin fill out this part of the bracket. Tomic hasn't looked particularly worthy of backing during grass preps, but he has been battling a virus. Tomic was sloppy in losing to Fognini and has a lot of points to defend this year after making the quarters last year. Goffin has very little grass court experience, so a healthy Tomic should have the game to move on and has the goods to get to the 3rd round although Levine might be tricky.
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