Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
Half-games are worth a ton in the NFL. For 8.5, first figure out the no-juice line. That gives you a baseline for winning 9+ games. With that, you can use a binomial distribution to figure out the implied odds of winning a single game. And with that, you can price any over/under.
Eh? You're going to treat every game with equal probability?

Interesting approach.