The Spurs were fortunate to take that first game given how the game was playing out. When the game started to get close in the 4th quarter, Durant was getting pushed around by Stephen Jackson, and was barely able to get any shots off. He is obviously stronger than Durant. However, Durant will get the respect from the refs this game, and those touchy fouls will be called against SJax and Kawi Leonard. And the Spurs will get in the penalty in every quarter. Durant will score over 30 tonight and he'll be there in the 4th when the game gets tight. I wouldn't be surprised if Durant shot 15 free throws tonight.


Westbrook played out of control in game 1 as I predicted. His immaturity is the reason the Thunder won't beat the Heat in a series, even if they get to the finals. However, Tony Parker is really no match for Westbrook on the defensive end. Parker is much, much smaller, and less athletic, and even when Westbrook elevates for his midrange jumpers, Parker has no chance to affect his shot. I need to see Westbrook more in the post tonight.

That's why I think it's a mistake that Pop is not putting Danny Green more on Westbrook.

Parker is running Westbrook around a lot of pick and rolls which is part of the game plan to tire his legs out. However, Westbrook is playing over the pick because he knows if he goes under Parker knocks down the shot and he can go under and if Parker gets by he still has the speed to try and recover. Additionally Ibaka is sitting back there, so I think it has to be a point throughout this series to go over the screen as much as you can.

Duncan played as good as he could in game 1. Perkins and Ibaka are both going t check him throughout this series. One longer and more athletic, one stronger and more physical. The different defensive styles are going to bother Duncan just enough throughout this game in my opinion to force some illadvised shots. I don't expect much from those two on the offensive end. Hard screens, tip ins, etc.

Now the main matchup as I said before this series started would be Ginobli and James Harden. First off, Ginobli is definitely better then harden. BUT. This is where the coaching comes in. Harden has the advantage in this matchup only for this reason. Ginobli has to go against Sefalosha most of the time in this series, who is the best perimeter defender on the Thunder. Ginobli (most of the time) has to check Harden. So he is expending double the amount of energy, while Harden is stuck guarding a perimeter shooter. Harden's played terrible- the stats are misleading as he knocked down 2 threes in garbage time. He will have to play much better in this game.

I think it would be a mistake to take Sefalosha off Ginobli, because the Thunder will lose.

The Spurs turned the ball over a ton in the first half of game one, and that led to about 10 or 12 Thunder fast break points if I remember correctly. Now the second half, Spurs turned the ball over 3 times, and that's why they were able to walk away with the victory. However, even with so few turnovers, the Thunder were right in the game up until a few minutes left in the 4th quarter.

Analysts always say turnovers lead to fast break points. However, that is very misleading. The Spurs took around 25 threes in the first game. Those 3 misses are not a result of Spurs just missing the 3. They are a result of OKC being much longer, much more athletic, and much faster than the Spurs. They can rotate and close out faster, especially when they have their small line up in. Long 3's lead to long misses which lead to one quick pass and it's pretty much a layup. A long 3 miss and Westbrook or Durant rebound means that it's essentially a fast break anyway.

I think the Spurs will stick to their formula. Shooting 25 three pointers is going to give the Thunder a chance in this game. I don't care that they shoot 40% in the reg. season. This is the conference finals against a much more athletic and perimeter oriented team. YOUR ADVANTAGE IS NOT to shoot 3's.

If I'm a Spurs fan, I want to see a 7-16 or so from 3. Not 12-28. That's not gonna get it done.



THUNDER +185 to win game 2, Risking $200