Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Very limited write-ups today, I have to start heading back home shortly.

Plays:

Cleveland Cavaliers +4

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

Both of these teams are extremely counter-intuitive. Each one perform’s much better on the road, so we are catching an advantage from the universal home adjustment that odds makers use.

Referee assignments:
  • David Jones: 16-17 home team ATS record
  • Scott Bolnick: 2-5 home team ATS record
  • Eric Dalen: 19-15 home team ATS record

Minnesota Timberwolves +2

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

This edge would be considerably bigger if Pekovic wasn’t questionable. Hopefully Pekovic plays, but if he doesn’t Derrick Williams will have a big game.

Referee assignments:
  • Scott Foster: 15-20 home team ATS record
  • JT Orr: 15-15-1 home team ATS record
  • Gary Zielinski: 16-20 home team ATS record