Originally posted on 03/12/2012:
Has nothing to do with where the line opens. All you're trying to do as a sports investor is to make +EV plays. You can calculate your +EV edge as long as you have three factors: (1) a projected or fair number absent public perception (for me, I had this one set at 195), (2) the number you bet (in this case 199) and (3) the closing number (in this 198). Now, in order to do this you need to know that your "fair" line is consistently accurate within an acceptable standard deviation. In my case, I have proven my model's numbers over a large sample and have confidence in the lines it projects.
Here is a solid thread where SK explains it quite well.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...e-its-use.html
Here's a great thread from Ganchrow with about expected value from a theoretical perspective.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...ical-hold.html