Quote Originally Posted by JM92 View Post
Like I said before, I only started fully betting this year and I started this "study" around mid-march. I don't use projections or nothing, although I do obviously guide myself by statistics, which are the base of my analyse. I don't even lose that much time, because my knowledge of the league and the amount of time I "waste" in the Nba helps me a lot with this kind of "situational plays". I have been "betting" (i put really small amounts into it) every bet that is according to my terms and so far I'm actually hitting almost 60%. The problem here is, as you stated, the juice. It just kills me. And the more plays, the more it does. If I put aside the + 100/105 prices I sometimes get, in 42 bets I have an average price of - 123... this is a lot of juice and even though I'm hitting 60% I barely get any profit.

LTA is absolutely right JM...there is no substitute that can countermand the juice that you will pay from too many bets. I promise you that you are not the only one. Some good cappers swear that the way to win is an extraordinary number of bets with perceived small edges in many angles. I have not been able to make that kind of physical and emotional commitment and make that work.

Notice LTA (at times) agonizes over some plays. Others he posts the night before. Usually he posts when he can get just a little bit more edge on the line. To a good capper a half a point on the line is huge especially in football with key numbers. It is everything. A good example was the other night with Dallas versus GSWs. That was a very close call. I played just one-quarter of a unit because I could not hold back when the World Champs were getting 4 points at GSW. LTA was looking at the same thing I believe and his instincts correctly said to no play because of the terrible fatigue schedule Dallas was in the middle of.

That is how thin the margin can be.

I put $200 bucks in two online sites and now have $1500 in one and $400 in another. Got a few free plays at the beginning. That is since September 2011. Many people on this thread could laugh at those amounts. But I ran it up by NEVER taking a shot or exceeding my bankroll. Until recently my big play was $25. I have less money in play than many here but I will be around playing for a long time with my conservative style.

Its a game, a hobby for me and nobody has more fun than me. So LTAs style of play is very measured, conservative and perfect for me.

BOL

Catch