Quote Originally Posted by Highness View Post
parlayin- i can't respond to PMs since i don't have 20 posts but everything you said in your PM was correct. it's definitely more complicated than just betting on pitchers with high ERAs but it's a really good place to start. results are solid going back a few years

and ignore everything wantitall4moi says, everything he's saying nonsense and fluff
if you guys stopped creating ghosts then you would have mre than 20 posts.

Baseball is easy even if youre just looking to bet one way.

Most over rated stat is starting pitching. If a guy doesnt go at least 7 2/3 he isnt worth betting on. If a guy has to lay heavy odds and is a 6 inning type guy and the team is mediocre then they are almost always a great bet against. Wont always be correct but odds are generally much better against a good starter than they are with him especially if he doesnt pitch a lot of innings.

Weather is the next most over rated stat. There will be a thousand wind is blowing this way or that way in a dozen ball parks this year. Yeah linesmakers dont know that info either. So as with anything once suckers and idiots get done betting into the obvious lines coming back over the top always offers great value. Wont always win but ups your price more than enough to make up for it.

There are a few more that arent as obviously over rated but if guys pick and choose their spots they will find them.

BECAUSE baseball is so stat oriented it makes it a great game to bet, especially if you use the stats people use to make their plays against them. baseballl odds are as volatile as they get, so gaining 30-40 cents is not uncommon. At that much of a difference you can pick a lot more losers than a guy who doesnt get the best price but has the same record.

If two guys bet the same 1000 sides of a game and player A gets an average of +110 a side and is 510-490 he profits 71 'units'. If Player B goes the identical 510-490 but only gets a -103 average price he is only going to profit 5 units. So a 13 cent difference in average price makes a huge difference.

baseball is ALL about the price you get results dont really mean much in the grand scheme. Although the ability to pick winners does matter more than in every other sport. That goes whether or not your playing both sides of the same game or just one side and looking to win.