[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/3/2012

Play #1

Heat/Sixers under (194) 1x (Locked)

This is a rematch of last season's playoff series and the intensity will be heightened. This is not the same Philly team as they are now more experienced and playing at a very high level on both offense and defense. Last season, Philly had a hard time playing well on both sides of the ball on a consistent basis. This season, they have discovered that the true key to consistent winning in the NBA is the result of defensive effort. I expect this game to be all about defense for both teams. Miami is coming off a humiliating loss to the Bucks the day before yesterday and that loss will be fresh in their minds after squandering a 17 point lead. In addition to running way too many ineffective isolation sets, Miami's defense was atrocious. This presents a great bounce-back opportunity for Miami to get rolling on defense once again. The key to this play is getting at least 194, which is the third most common final score in the NBA behind 189 and 197. While I do understand that this total might go up before it goes back down, I was targeting 194 so I could not pass it up and risk losing it while I am at work. That is why I am locking this one up now before the ref assignments are released. If this total goes up to 195 before dropping, there is a solid chance I bump this up to a 1.5x play or more. Even though the Heat and Sixers are ranked 2nd and 6th respectively in OEFF, they are also ranked 10th and 1st in DEFF. Because they are both coming off a day of rest, I expect the intensity of this game to manifest itself on the defensive edge. I suspect we do not see many open looks for either team, as both defenses will look to establish themselves early. These two teams played to a 205 point final score on January 21st, with a total that opened at 195 and closed at 193 with Pinny juicing the under at -113 (which is like -126 at any other book). Now, despite a 205 final score on a closer of 193, Pinny opened today's game with an adjustment in favor of the under by opening at 192, a full three points lower than the previous opener and one point lower than the previous close. I think the books are tipping their hand just a bit with that opening number and offering a very enticing number for over bettors. In that previous game, the teams played to a very slow PACE of 88, but were able to hit 205 because of phenomenal shooting performances by both teams (Philly shot 53% from behind the arc, while Miami hit 54% of all shots). It will be extremely difficult for these teams to recreate those shooting performances, especially when you consider that Miami will be keying on stopping Philly's outside shot according to comments from Spoelstra and Philly has a top 5 defense in all major advanced statistical categories (e.g. just to name a few DEFF, TS%, EFG%, Points in the Paint, OF%, Fastbreak Points Per Game, etc.). Philly is coming off a dominating defensive performance against the Bulls and I think they understand the necessity of playing the same type of game in order to defeat another top echelon team like Miami. Miami's dependence on isolation offensive sets and Philly's dominance in defending the same, should play an important role in this game. On the other side, Philly's depth will be a problem for Miami to defend. However, Philly plays at a slow PACE ranked toward the bottom of the league at 90.6. Consequently, I expect this to be classic game where both teams get off to a hot start and then slow it down considerably in the 2h. I have this game set at 190 which supports the books' adjustment in favor of the under in this game, however, I expect the majority of all bets to be in the over's favor at least 60/40 by tip. That provides us with a nice little opportunity to fade the majority in this game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x now and possibly more down the road. Good luck.

Play #2

Pistons (+5) 1x (Locked)

This is a pure line value play. Last week, these teams played in milwaukee and the bucks opened at -7 and won by 20 points thanks to an overall shooting % of 51% and 59% from beyond the arc. Needless to say, that will be a difficult performance to reproduce. In this game, the bucks are giving 5 points in what amounts to a 4 point adjustment. That is just way too much for a bucks team that plays poorly on the road. Using standard adjustments, the bucks should be no more than -2 or -2.5 tonight, yet we are getting 5 full points. When you take into account a double revenge angle for detroit, plus a possible look-ahead spot for the bucks as they play the bulls tomorrow, I think the pistons can cover this spread and keep the game close, if not win outright. The pistons strength is down low with monroe and that is where the bucks struggle without bogut. I just don't think the bucks will shoot as well as they did last week and detroit should be motivated because of the revenge angle and the fact that this is a winnable game against a bad road team. I have the pistons at +2.5 in this game based on the stats alone and factoring in the situational analysis makes them a clear "play on." Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the pistons for 1x. Good luck.