NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/2/2012

Play #1

Hornets/Spurs under (183.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that neither team looks to play a fast pace and I just dont see the hornets shooting over 51% like the last time they played or as they have done in their last two games. NO just doesn't have the firepower to keep that offensive production going. The hornets rank toward the bottom in OEFF, EFG%,TS%, etc. With Duncan most likely resting tonight, that will hurt the spurs offensive efficiency in the paint. Usually, I like to look at the over when both teams are on a b2b, 4 in 5 like tonight, but in this case I think the under is the play because I expect the fatigue to manifest itself in a slower pace and poor shooting percentage. These two teams played about ten days ago to a 206 final score which was the result of SA shooting 54% and NO shooting 50% from the field and behind the arc, but only playing at an 88 PACE. I expect a similar slow PACE, but I just dont see these tired teams shooting so well. I have this game set at 180 giving us 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.