[wantitall4moi]

The + even - even crew should start posting picks and see how it goes.. think it would be good to see

The one thing I can say is that +/- Ev is more easily determined during a game. Before the game it is narly impossible to determine. Guys will use models, which if theyre fairly accurate will give them the best guess. But comparing lines and odds between different books doesnt determine +/- Ev, it just gives you a comparison shopping of what books are offering.

We have had this debate forever. If +/- Ev were sop easily and accurately predictable BEFORE the games started then everyone with a brain and you could divide and multiply would be a millionaire.

In game betting in some sports that are slower can tip you off to strategies and game plans that were in question prior to the start. Also gives a full accounting of any replacement players and how effective or ineffective they may be. The most obvious ones are quick or 'flukey' scores that will obviously effect a chance at an outcome of a game. But not always. But if over compensated for could offer some 'value' the other way.

In the end the only real + Ev bets are ones that cant lose no matter what. But in terms of profitability they might not have as much 'value' (risk versus reward) as a bet that has a comfortable lead. Having +155 ML and your team winning by 20 points isnt a sure thing. But it is probably enough of a lead that buying the other side +400 would basically be a separate bet rather than an actual 'hedge'. So it comes down to semantics after awhile. Obviously one side at +155 and one side at +400 coupled together is + Ev no matter how you slice it. But some would say that the +400 bet was not + EV alone given the circumstances. That is where semantics and theory start entering in.