Originally posted on 12/24/2011:

Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
You missed my other post. I said without an independent way to determine a 'fair line'. A model/simulator/system then it doesnt matter. But with those then the closer is irrelevant. You will ave an independent result already and you just bet he best available number when youre ready. You could bet early, bet late, or bet when you thought the time was right. That still doesnt mean you had an advantage or were better at something.

It just means you used (in your mind) a better way to determine what a 'fair' market line for that game was.

I know guys are trying to use all these wall street and market prediction software and putting it into sports betting. But those things dont work in the area they were intended. The stock market is more fixed and manipulated than sportsbetting. But at least the prices are easier to track and give 'long' term value to.

Sports betting isnt nearly as complex or complicated as people want to make it out to be. If it were then everyone would be killing it.

Seriously. I wasnt a gambler. I used the system to its fullest. I bet both sides of the same game for a guaranteed profit. I did it well and I made a lot of money. Could I have made money betting one side of a game? Probably, but why bother you can bet more and risk less with a TRUE advantage. Making money betting sports isnt about winning, it is about not losing.

You dont think I looked at moves, mostly in baseball but also on ML plays? Of course I did, if I had seen a clear cut reason or pattern I might have changed tactics. i didnt. Moves were right and they were wrong, the best approach was to just go with the flow and take advantage of it.

Everyone wants to 'beat the book' That is a total misnomer. What people should want to do is BECOME the book. And when you can control youre own action becoming the book is very lucrative. If I have a side -115, and I have the opposite side +135 I am a bookmaker then. I am collecting vig, taking a hold, on my own bets basically. But the book is paying me. So instead of me paying the book a commission on whatever I win, they pay me no matter who wins. In this case I get 4.12%, instead of me paying them on a -110 line 4.55% if I win. Even when you win a one sided bet you lose vig. Betting both ways, especially in baseball where they move vig around willy nilly youre cutting their hold in half from the start. Baseball has small holds anyway, much less than football. Simply because it is a diime line, and places with smaller holds like Pinnacle it is almost non existant. Most of their holds are 1.44% Some even less. A few around 1.5% But that is less than most exchanges will charge in commissions fees. So if you bet a side at Pinnacle for say -142, and they take a ton of action and you can eventually get the other side for +157 youre looking at an instant 2.5% return. On an amount you really dont have to worry about since it is 'risk free'.

This isnt rocket science. Seriously anyone can do it. Like Isay the trick is betting the 'right' side of the line move. Which is obviously the most difficult part. But even if youre 'wrong' with the 'right' outs, you can minimize the damage because the takes are so small.

So look at a 'bad' game. You bet a team -147 for say 7350. The line moves against you, and you wait until it hits +139 before you eject. That is an extreme move and most guys would eject before then probably. But even so, you take a chance. That 'gamble' costs you 167 bux. So nt earth shattering, but when youre living and grinding on pennies it cus into the bottomline.

So with a 10K bankroll and having a bunch of 'bad' leads worst case a guy isnt going to go broke, and might even show a small profit if he has enough good leads. Its a grind, not a bet big or go home sort of thng. And it isnt something you can come to the forums and brag about.
Now you are directly contradicting yourself. On the assumption that your above referenced -115/+135 is not an arbitrage (with both bets placed simultaneously) than what you are doing absolutely depends on you beating the closing line to be successful.

After placing the initial bet, if the line moves your way you can win, if it moves against you you are losing, period. So the questions are

1) What tools/knowledge are you using to predict/pre-empt these line movements?
2) In the long run for those bets where the line does move in your direction how would just holding on to the initial position/bet compare to 'scalping' approach? If markets are truly efficient (and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that NFL, NBA, MLB markets are) then it follows that the initial bet has a substantial +EV and that the second, scalping, bet merely reduces that value.