[JR007]

SEPTEMBER 21, 2011-- Let’s Talk About Turnovers: the turnover is still probably the most overlooked part of football.. The best piece about turnovers that I ever read didn’t come from some ESPN clown more concerned about who is more 'now' and 'elite' and who isn’t, or some sportswriter goof who writes about how many yards Cam Newton throws for and calls it a record. It was written 14 years ago by an Iowa State Professor of Statistics…<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD width=400></TD><TD></TD><TD width=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=8 cellPadding=8 width="100%" bgColor=#fffdef><TBODY><TR><TD>

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.., which is why the public isn’t familiar with it. Here is an excerpt from “American Football: by Hal S. Stern, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, December 24, 1997: First, he referenced a study that had been done 26 years earlier:

“…First, we describe Carter and Machol's [study on NFL football done in 1971) use of their results to evaluate the football wisdom that says turnovers (losing the ball to your opponent by making a gross error) near one's own goal are more costly than turnovers elsewhere on the field. A turnover at one's own 15-yard-line (85 yards from the target goal) changes a team from having expected value -0.64 to -4.57 (the opponent's value after taking possession is 4:57), a drop of 3.93 expected points. The same turnover at the opponent's 45-yard-line changes the expected points from 2:39 to -1:54, a drop of 3.93 expected points! Turnovers are worth about 4 points and this value doesn't seem to depend on the location at which the turnover occurs.”

Four points is more than a field goal! Next to the touchdown, a turnover is the hidden second-highest scoring factor in football -- indirectly and on average, of course. Four points per turnover is why the Indianapolis Colts chose Kerry Collins over Curtis Painter after Peyton Manning became unavailable due to injury. As a 16-season veteran, Collins is less likely to throw interceptions. Sure, he got sacked and fumbled (losing two, what else is new, that was to be expected!) on opening day at Houston. But guess who had the positive turnover margin in that 34-7 win by Houston on opening day? It was Indianapolis, +1. Collins did not throw an interception. If Painter had played, the Colts probably would have lost that game 51-7 with Houston tacking on an extra two touchdowns on, or on drives following, interceptions. Collins threw only one interception against Cleveland last week. He also lost a fumble (again, that’s what Kerry Collins does), but the Colts were only -1 in Turnover Ratio for the game. Which probably means that instead of losing 27-19 to Cleveland (as a +3 home underdog), Indianapolis would have lost 34-10 to Cleveland on their home field had Painter played. Wow, they’re horrible! Their general manager has done the worst job of building an NFL team because with the loss of one guy, their next-best option at the position is someone with whom the best-case scenario so far is that they lose without being embarrassed on the scoreboard, but still by more than the spread!

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[Creditsforedits]

JR007 is proven to lack credibility and honesty. Protect yourself from this individual.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-bettin...l#post12486495