Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
Just playing devil's advocate but couldnt reduced size also mean he has more speed and can therefore avoid getting hit as much thus making the need to have a solid chin redundant?
It very well could.

My thought process is this. Roy's cardio has never been a weakness. His greatest weakness has and will continue to be his wrestling. He was unable to get JDS down (or chose not to even really try) and was completely tossed around by Mir, who is a jiu-jitsu guy as well. He gassed in the Mir fight because he was sick not because of a lack of cardio.

Mirko no longer posseses the same lethal striking that he once did, but he is still a very, very technical striker. He throws mostly straight punches as his kicks have lost their snap and can potentially leave him open to takedowns. Mirko's weakness is his chin and his bottom game on the ground. His takedown defense is very solid particularly out of the clinch, which is the one area where Nelson's takedowns are somewhat sufficient.

Nelson has two ways to win this fight. Eat a shot to give a shot and go chin-to-chin with the aging and fragile striker until he gets the KO. Or clinch with Mirko and drag the fight to the ground where he can use his weight and great top control to work for a submission. Nelson being lighter mitigates the two threats that he poses to Mirko. He will have less power in his hands. He will have less of a chin. He will have a harder time dragging Mirko down. AND he will have more trouble keeping Mirko down once he gets him there.

Even with improved speed, Nelson's loopy hooks will have slower deliveries than the crisp, down-the-middle straight punches that CroCop will be throwing. In my eyes, this went from being a value play to me thinking that CroCop should actually be a decent favorite to win.

Just my .02$ though..