Originally posted on 09/29/2011:

$$$$ Take #101 South Florida (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 29)
This is a nice spot to get on board with the hottest team in the Big East. South Florida opened the year with a nice win over Notre Dame. They have used that momentum to stay unbeaten and have looked impressive while doing so. Pittsburgh lost at home to Notre Dame last week in an ugly game. That performance versus a common opponent shows which team is stronger, with USF winning on the road and Pitt losing at home. But South Florida has also lost three straight times to Pittsburgh and has revenge against the Panthers. Pitt is still working its way through a new coach. Skip Holtz and his coaches in USF have gotten their players' attention and right now these teams are heading in different directions.
$$ Take #108 BYU (-7.5) over Utah State (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 30)
BYU has played a very difficult schedule so far this season so they are much more seasoned than Utah State. The Aggies seem to be getting a lot of respect from the books, mainly because of their near-win at Auburn to open the year. But that was a long time ago and this Aggies team can't hold up physically to the Cougars. BYU has won 15 straight at home against USU and the Aggies are coming off an outright loss as a double-digit underdog. I think that BYU is undervalued right now and that they will lay the hammer in this one for a 20+ point blowout.
$$.5 Take #115 Wake Forest (-2.5) over Boston College (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)
Boston College really is not playing good football right now. It took a blowout over weak UMass last week to give this team any confidence. They do have Montrel Harris back but he doesn't look as explosive and hasn't completely fixed the BC running game. Wake Forest is off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for this one. Wake would have won in Syracuse to open the year if his QB hadn't gotten hurt late in the third quarter. They dominated N.C. State at home and this looks like one of Grobe's veteran Deacons teams that will play tough, disciplined, mistake-free football all season.
$$$ Take #137 Cincinnati (-14.5) over Miami, OH (1 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)
The Bearcats have dominated this in-state Rivalry and they should continue to do so here. They have won five straight by an average of nearly 28 points per game and are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the Redhawks. Cincinnati is off a 30-point win in primetime last week over N.C. State and this team will be building momentum into Big East play. The Bearcats racked up 600 yards of offense last year in this game and scored four TDs in the first quarter to put it away early. That blowout came against a Miami team that won 10 games. This year's Miami team is not as strong and lost at home by 15 last week to Bowling Green. The talent is all on Cincy's side and they will roll here.
$$$ Take #177 Auburn (+10) over South Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)
This is too many points for South Carolina to be laying out. Despite somehow covering the spread last week against lowly Vanderbilt the Gamecocks were unimpressive. South Carolina once again has a quarterback controversy and Stephen Garcia just keeps making dumb decisions on and off the field. USC will be much better off when he is gone. But I can't lay double-digits in an SEC game when a team is unsettled at quarterback. Auburn has been defying expectations all year and outside of their game against Utah State in the opener hasn't had a bad game yet. South Carolina may or may not win but this game won't be a blowout.
$$.5 Take #109 Air Force (+3.5) over Navy (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 1)
Air Force won this rivalry game with fellow service academy Navy last year. I think that they will make it back-to-back victories after Navy had won seven straight. Tim Jefferson and Asher Clark give the Falcons a big edge in experience in the backfield and in a game that will again be close that will make the difference. In the last meeting in Annapolis Air Force battled as a dog and lost in overtime. They were nearly a double-digit favorite at home last year and I think that they are even stronger this time around. I am looking for an outright win for Air Force in this one.
$$$$$ Take #213 Washington (-1.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
This play is from the 411 System and it is my Game of the Week.
The Redskins lost on Monday Night Football because of some late turnovers. But I was impressed with this team again and I thought that they were the better team on the field. Washington is 2-1 on the season and they have a very veteran team that I think will have no problem bouncing back from that MNF defeat. St. Louis is an exhausted team right now. They have been blown out in three straight weeks by the Eagles, Giants and Ravens. This was supposed to be the year that the Rams dominated the NFC West. But instead they have been the worst team in the division and are in last place. All reports talked about how dejected and beaten down they were after the Ravens left town. The Redskins are just as physical and they have revenge for a 20-point loss here last year. This is not the same Washington team and the Redskins seem to buy into Mike Shanahan's systems. The same cannot be said for the Rams and I see them falling to 0-4.
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$$$ Take 'Under' 39.5 Minnesota at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
The Vikings could be 3-0 right now. They have had double-digit leads in all three of their games in the second half and have blown them all. If they were 3-0 this line would look a whole lot different but this small line doesn't change the talent disparity. The Vikings have the better defense and the better running game and they don't want to fall to 0-4. Kansas City has been blown out in two of its three games. They are also off a disappointing close loss to rival San Diego. It will be tough for them to bounce back from that game. Looking at the two common opponents that the Vikings and Chiefs have played (Detroit and San Diego) the Vikings played much better than the Chiefs. They are the stronger team and won't be bothered by being on the road here.
$$.5 Take #224 Houston (-4) over Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
Houston is favored for a reason in this game. I think that all of the public money is going to come in on the Steelers here since they are a big public team. But despite that the line has jumped from its open at 2.0 to its current spot at 4.0. That line movement tells me all the sharp money is coming in on the Texans, who are tough at home. Houston should have beaten the Saints on the road last week and this is a good Houston team. Pittsburgh was blown out in its first road game of the year at Baltimore. And they have just looked OK in their last two games against bad teams (Seattle, Indianapolis). Right now Pittsburgh has a lot of problems on the offensive line and they cannot protect Big Ben or establish the running game that has been their strength for decades. It won't get any easier this week against a good Texans defense. I like the home team by a touchdown here.
$$Take #234 Oakland (+4.5) over New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
This one is an upset special! I think that the Raiders have a chance to knock off the Patriots in this one. New England is in the second of back-to-back road games and they are coming off a bad loss in Buffalo where they blew a 21-0 lead. The Patriots have to fly cross-country to face a team that they don't respect and the Pats also could be looking ahead to a game with the Jets next week. Oakland has one of the best running backs and running games in the NFL right now and I don't think that they will have any trouble moving the ball against New England's No. 31 ranked defense. This is not the same Oakland team we have seen in the past and they are tough. All of the square money is coming down on the Patriots but I will get with the live dog here.
$$ Take #209 New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 2)
The Saints used a miracle comeback last week to win and cover at home against the Texans. They are back on the road but I think that the momentum will keep going. The Saints have played a very tough schedule so far this year (Green Bay, Chicago, Houston) while Jacksonville is just 1-2 despite not playing a good schedule at all. The Jaguars have a rookie quarterback under center and he won't be any match for the blitzing Saints defense. Drew Brees should get a lot of possessions here and I can see the Saints delivering the knockout punch early in the second half.