Originally posted on 09/08/2011:

Machine Plays: 3-2

I'm not going to write all the reasons why Green Bay is a smart play, cause it would be too long. I'll just mention a couple. They had the #2 scoring defense last year against the 7th hardest schedule in the NFL. Some people don't think that schedule strength matters in the NFL, and if you are one of those people, then there's no reason for you to open my threads the rest of the year becasue I think schedule strength is critical.

Against the top 10 teams in the NFL last year Green Bay went 8-3 SU. New Orleans went 2-2 SU. Go ahead and think about that for a second, and then tell me if Green Bay will be intimidated tonight. Aaron Rodgers' QB rating at home was insane: 7-1 with a 112 rating, 19 TDs and 6 picks.

New Orleans will be without their 2nd leading receiver, without leading DE (Will Smith), and without DT Aubrayo Franklin.

Defending superbowl champs have gone 7-0 SU in the first week of the season over the last 7 years. Green Bay has covered 20 of their last 29, and covered 4 points (tonight's number) against each of their last 7 opponents (all playoff teams!). Their roster returns even better than last year (LY had 16 players on I-R roster).

Go ahead and hang a square around my neck, and by the end of the night there will be money dangling from it. New Orleans may be "hungrier" than Green Bay and Ingram could be a stud this year. But I don't bank on what "might be". I bank on results. Green Bay delivers results. Last year New Orleans was 18th in the league in sacks, and now they are without Will Smith. Aaron Rodgers will have time to find open receivers. Ballgame.

GREEN BAY -4