[jacktheknife]

Could easily go either way. Sakara is a better boxer from distance, whereas Rivera's best work comes against the fence, throwing knees and uppercuts from inside. I won't be remotely surprised if Rivera wins, but I favour Sakara slightly on the basis that, given the kind of distance from which an MMA fight begins, he's better than Rivera. Rivera operates best from inside the phone booth, and that's a position he actually has to work to get to. He'll have to go through a bit of fire to get there.

That said, if Rivera can land a clean straight right on Sakara's chin during an exchange, Sakara is probably going to sleep. Even though Sakara is the more technical and varied striker here, there's no getting away from the fact that his chin absolutely stinks.

With all of that said, I don't currently see any value in either line. If I was forced to make a play, I'd take a flier on Rivera exposing Sakara's chin at +139.

When you start to say to yourself "he can totally win by faking the shot, hitting the 2-3, ducking inside, working the body, faking the single leg, going back to the body, opening up his head so he can back up, work the straight right, and hit the flying double knee, provided he clicks his heels three times and pinches his nipples before the fight", you might realize that by expecting such a concise and undeviated strategy, you're unconsciously recognizing what we call a bottleneck.

The shorthand is that Sakara can win this a few ways and Rivera's got one apparent and risky avenue. Throw his age on top of it. I, for one, can't be bought that cheap for no +139.

[flickavic]

very well done my friend.