NBA 6/12/11

Dallas/Miami under (187) 10x (Locked)

Possible addition of between 1x - 10x depending on the ref assignments and line moves. I actually have this game capped at 179.5 when you factor in everything, including the elimination game under trend. Therefore, I think we have a ton of value in the under at 187 and will play it for 10x now to ensure I get a number I like. Tomorrow, I will look to add between 1x - 10x at a slightly better number to rival my biggest play of the season when we easily cashed a 15x play on the under in game 2 of the Bulls/Hawks series.

I actually think this total might creep up to 187.5 or maybe even 188 at some point tomorrow from a ton of public action coming in on the over based on the result of game 5. However, we know better and feel it's best to lock in 10x now at 187 because I don't want to risk losing a number I feel comfortable with if some big gun hits the under with big time money and drops it a half point. When the game opened up at 189, sharps pounded that down to 187 within 10 minutes. It is pretty clear that the big money sharps agree with us and know the under is the play here. Right now the overall action is pretty even on the total, however, by opening tip, I expect a 65/35 split in favor of the over as all the weekend Joe's start placing their bets. Therefore, we should have some nice public fade action factor in to help support this under as well.

This game is do or die for the Heat and I expect lock-down defense from the perimeter. Miami will use the same slow paced, half-court offense and defense to wear Dallas down just like they did in games 1 and 3. I expect a Miami win tomorrow and a Miami ML/under parlay might not be a bad idea. However, I am not messing around with the side because the Heat are big-time jag-bags and perhaps they have given Dallas just enough added motivation to cover this game in Miami. Plus, a play on the Heat ML has no value right now because of the high price. Regardless of winner, however, I expect a big time defensive game from each team. Both teams shot over 50% in game 5 and I don't see that happening two games in a row where these two teams are playing in a different arena and under totally different circumstances.

Most trends point to the under here, with Dallas on the road and Miami at home. I think we see an ultra-slow pace in the 2h as both teams will be giving every ounce of effort and intensity. Uncontested shots will be hard to come by and even where they happen, I expect a lot of bricks tomorrow.

Now that I am finally back at home and have an internet connection, I will try to get you an in-depth writeup on this game late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

I love this play and will have big plays on both of these final two games of the NBA season. I will update all of my records for MLB and WNBA later today, however, so far in this thread for the NBA we are a dominating 24 - 16 = + 54.5x (please note, this does not include the 5x loser on the Bulls series play against the Heat). This thread includes NBA plays from the second round and beyond, so when you add the + 47x we made in profit during the first round of the NBA playoffs as documented in previous threads, we have now made over 100x in profit since the start of the NBA playoffs on April 14th as documented right here on SBR.

We only made a little over 60x in profit on the NBA regular season, so as you can see, we have just been killing the NBA playoffs as we are hitting over 60% (please note, not all plays were made at -110 odds as I have bought the hook here and there) and have brought in over 100x + in profit. I think you would be hard-pressed to find any tout who would have made you 100x since April 14th while providing you the in-depth writeups I do for free. I provide all of this just to improve my own capping and to help all of you make some money and beat the books. The goal is now to hit 120x in profit for the NBA playoffs on a whole, so we need to make about 20x in profit over these next two NBA games. Let's keep it up and stay hot over these final two games of the 2010-2011 NBA season!!! Good luck!