Originally posted on 05/06/2011:

Alright after digesting all this information the last day I have made some conclusions from my main contenders.

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*


The trainer of Mucho Macho Man, Kathy Ritvo, has really thrown me off this horse. She has no derby experience and she isn't a good trainer to begin with. In 2011 her steeds are 2 for 50; 4% win clip. I'll have to let this one beat me because proper preparation is key. My next throw out is CommaTotheTop. Looking at this horses last 3 running lines is speed and fade in all of them. Now this horse has to go 1.25 miles against stiffer competition and in a race which looks like there will be a good amount of early speed with Decisive Moment, Pants on Fire, Shackelford, Mucho Macho Man, and Uncle Mo. Expect much of the same here.

That leaves me with Twice Appeal, Pants on Fire, and Animal Kingdom to be me keys to weather I profit this derby.

Will be back in AM with an Oaks/Derby double pick. Got to get some coffee and start capping the Oaks. Good luck to all with your selections.