The field has been announced. Over the next 2 days I'll break down the field to a few contenders and hopefully 1 winner. Sometimes, the best horse wins the Kentucky Derby. But more often than not, the horse with the bigest beyer numbers, most attention from the public waltzes into Churchill Downs and beaten because of his pedigree, preparation or the bad luck that comes with being favored.

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1
4. Stay Thirsty, R. Dominguez, 30-1
5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1
9. Derby Kitten, J. Castellano, 30-1
10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1
12. Santiva, S. Bridgmohan, 30-1
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1
15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza, 12-1
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1
17. Soldat, A. Garcia, 20-1
18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1
19. Nehro, C. Nakatani, 6-1
20. Watch Me Go, R. Bejarano, 50-1

1st set of criteria is to eliminate any horse whose last prep race was not 1 1/8th mile. Only one horse fails and that is Derby Kitten.

2nd step and one of the most important is to throw out any horse who didn't finish 4th or better in its final prep race. Preferably 3rd or better. A horse who comes in to the race in bad form doesn't find it. Past history proves it. Dating back to 1962 no horse has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race and has worn the roses. We can safely eliminate Santiva (9th place finish in Bluegrass), Soldat (5th place finsh in the Florida derby), Stay Thirsty (7th place finish in the Florida derby), Watch Me go (6th place in the Illinois derby)

2010 Super Saver Arkansas Derby 2nd
2009 Mine That Bird Sunland Derby 4th
2008 Big Brown Florida Derby 1st
2007 Street Sense Blue Grass 2nd
2006 Barbaro Florida Derby 1st
2005 Giacomo Santa Anita D 4th
2004 Smarty Jones Arkansas Derby 1st
2003 Funny Cide Wood Mememorial 2nd
2002 War Emblem Illinois Derby 1st
2001 Monarchos Wood Memorial 2nd
2000 Fus. Pegasus Wood Memorial 1st
1999 Charismatic Lexington 1st
1998 Real Quiet Santa Anita D 2nd
1997 Silver Charm Santa Anita D 2nd
1996 Grindstone Arkansas Derby 2nd
1995 Thunder Gulch Blue Grass 4th
1994 Go for Gin Wood Memorial 2nd
1993 Sea Hero Blue Grass 4th
1992 Lil E. Tee Arkansas Derby 2nd
1991 Strike the Gold Blue Grass 1st
1990 Unbridled Blue Grass 3rd
1989 Sunday Silence Santa Anita Derby 1st
1988 Winning Colors Santa Anita Derby 1st
1987 Alysheba Blue Grass 3rd
1986 Ferdinand Santa Anita Derby 3rd
1985 Spend a Buck Garden State 1st
1984 Swale Lexington 2nd
1983 Sunny's Halo Arkansas Derby 1st
1982 Gato Del Sol Blue Grass 2nd
1981 Pleasant Colony Wood Memorial 1st
1980 Genuine Risk Wood Memorial 3rd
1979 Spectacular Bid Blue Grass 1st
1978 Affirmed Hollywood Derby 1st
1977 Seattle Slew Wood Memorial 1st
1976 Bold Forbes Wood Memorial 1st
1975 Foolish Pleasure Wood Memorial 1st
1974 Cannonade CD Allowance 1st
1973 Secretariat Wood Memorial 3rd
1972 Riva Ridge Blue Grass 1st
1971 Canonero II Venezuela 3rd
1970 Dust Commander Blue Grass 1st
1969 Majestic Prince CD Allowance 1st
1968 Forward Pass Blue Grass 1st
1967 Proud Clarion Blue Grass 2nd
1966 Kauai King Gov. Gold Cup 1st
1965 Lucky Debonair Blue Grass 1st
1964 Northern Dancer Blue Grass 1st
1963 Chateaugay Blue Grass 1st
1962 Decidedly Blue Grass 2nd

And the field is down to 15.

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1

10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1
15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza, 12-1
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1
19. Nehro, C. Nakatani, 6-1

Next set of criteria is to throw out any horse who didn't win a race at the age of 2. Late bloomers rarely win the derby. We can elminate Midnight Interlude, Nehro. Nehro is also the only horse in thef field with a Dosage Index above 4. The DI is used to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree. It's a stamina check. It's not perfect, but only 5 winners of the Kentucky Derby (in the last 70 years) since 1940 (Strike the Gold [1991], Real Quiet [1998], Charismatic [1999], Giacomo [2005] and Mine That Bird [2009]) have had a Dosage Index above 4.00. Even though the aforementioned 5 horses won the Kentucky Derby within the last 2 decades (20 years to be exact), the percentage of 5 out of 70 (1940-2010) is just 7% overall.

Cut the field down to 13 with confidence.

1. Archarcharch, J. Court, 10-1
2. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario, 30-1
3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1
8. Dialed In, J. Leparoux, 4-1

10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1

The next set of criteria specifies that in either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse must have been first or second with a furlong to go; otherwise, the horse gets a strike. This very important because 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong remaining in the Derby, the two exceptions being Grindstone in 1996 and Giacomo in 2005. Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby after being fourth with a furlong to go. Giacomo won the roses after being sixth at the eighth pole. Thats knocks out Archanarch, Brilliant Speed, and Dialed In.

The field is cut into half at 10, and I will wager dollars to doughnuts that the horse wearing the roses will come from this group. There are some juicy prices left on the board.




3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1


10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1

From here points will be added to the list of 10 contenders.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile or longer race as a 2 year old. Give points to Animal Kingdom, Comma to the Top, Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire, Uncle Mo.


Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 beyer speed figures in its last race. This is a big knock if the horse did not. A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby. Mucho Macho Man, Uncle Mo are the only two which did not meet the criteria.

Give points to horses which raced against graded stakes competition prior to April as a 3 year old. Reason: battle tested. All qualify except for Uncle Mo.

Next the horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole. This shows a horse that does not like to be passed coming down the stretch. Strikes against Comma to the Top, Mucho Macho Man, Decisive Moment, Master of Hounds, Uncle Mo, Shackelford, Twinspired

Horses with less than 6 lifetime starts have not faired well in the derby but there has been a few winners of late. This indicates a lack of racing experience. Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 are the only ones to break this rule. Uncle Mo, Animal Kingdom, and Shackelford all lack racing experience.

Give a point to a horse that has won a graded stakes race. This shows a horse has the class to win. Decisive Moment, Master of Hounds, Twinspired, and Shackelford have failed to win a graded stakes race.

Points in asteriks:

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*

5. Decisive Moment, K. Clark, 50-1 *3*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*


10. Twinspired, M. Smith, 30-1 *3*
11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez, 20-1 *3*

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
14. Shackleford, J. Castanon, 20-1 *2*

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez, 5-1 *2*

Eliminate: Decisive Moment, Twinspired, Master of Hounds, Shackelford, and Uncle Mo.

Remaining field (main contenders):

3. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel, 30-1 *5*
6. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela, 30-1 *5*
7. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik, 30-1 *6*
13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh, 12-1 *4*
16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado, 20-1 *5*

Finally its time to take account speed figures. We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The KentuckyDerby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race.

Twice Appeal - 88
Comma To The Top - 97
Pants on Fire - 97
Mucho Macho Man - 98
Animal Kingdom - 96

Don't pick a horse with a new jockey. You really need to know your horse in a race like this so it isn't the place to pick someone getting on the horse for the first time. Calvin Borel jumps on Twice Appeal for the 1st time and has a poor speed figure. PVal on Comma To the Top to replace Nakatani. Trainer of Mucho Macho Man, Kath Ritvo is making her first derby appearance which has not been a successful thing in the past.

That leaves Pants on Fire and Animal Kingdom as the 2 horses to use in this years derby with Mucho Macho Man, Commat to the Top, Twice Appeal and I'll throw Soldat in underneath.

I'll post official plays later on.