STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 3/28/11
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*** CATS OUT OF THE BAG! ***
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Kentucky has emerged as the favorite to win the NCAA tournament. Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, made the Wildcats +160 favorites to win it all right after John Calipari’s young squad dusted off North Carolina to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 1998. Kentucky will face UConn (+200) in Saturday’s second game in Houston. The Wildcats opened as 1.5-point favorites over the Huskies, but were quickly bet up to -2 at the Mirage. The total opened around 141 online.

UConn (30-12, 21-12 ATS) clobbered Kentucky, 84-67, in Maui in November. Kemba Walker scored 29 points and the Huskies jumped out to an early big lead against the Wildcats (29-8, 16-15-1 ATS). Kentucky star freshman point guard Brandon Knight was held to just six points. He had 22 against North Carolina and has hit two game-winners in the NCAA tournament.

In the other seminfinal, Butler opened as 2.5-point favorite against Virginia Commonwealth, shortly after the Rams disposed of top seed Kansas in the early game Sunday. Pinnaclesports, BetED and BetCRIS were among the first online sportsbooks to post numbers for Saturday’s Final Four showdown between a pair of Cinderellas from mid-major conferences. Eighth-seeded Butler has gone from a +1,500 longshot to a serious threat to win it all. Rood had the Bulldogs at +380 on Sunday. VCU, the second 11th seed to reach the Final Four (LSU, 1996), is +640 to win the tournament.

“VCU could win it, you know? Very easily” said Rood. “Athlete-for-athlete, they’re as good as anyone left.” Still, Rood opened Butler as 3-point favorites over the Rams, citing the Bulldogs’ tournament experienced. But Vegas pros pounced on VCU +3 and bet the number down to 2.5. Sharp bettors also bet under 133 quickly, forcing Rood to move the total down to 132. “I just think it might be a little higher-scoring than some guys believe,” said Rood.

Butler (27-9, 19-13-1 ATS) heads to Houston having won 13 straight. The Bulldogs are 9-2-1 against the spread during the run. VCU (28-11, 18-20 ATS) lost four of five to end the season and snuck into the NCAA tournament as one of the First Four. Shaka Smart’s Rams have been an underdog is seven straight games, covering the spread in all but their 75-70 loss to Old Dominion in the Colonial Conference Tournament title game.

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***** MONDAY, MARCH 28TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Milwaukee is 8-4 vs spread in its last dozen games. Bobcats won last two games, by 2-8 points, after losing 10 of last 12 games before that.
-- Celtics won last three road games by 4-10-3 points.
-- Orlando won last five games, but only covered one of them.
-- Chicago won 12 of its last 13 games (10-2-1 vs spread).
-- Portland won five of its last seven games (6-1 vs spread).

• COLD TEAMS
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-- Pacers are 5-7 vs spread in last dozen games as an underdog.
-- New York lost six games in row and nine of last ten.
-- 76ers lost three of their last four games.
-- Spurs lost their last three games, by 3-2-7 points.
-- Jazz lost their last six games, are 1-5 vs spread in last six as favorite. Washington lost 10 of last 11 games (3-8 vs spread).

• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Celtics are 1-7 vs spread on road if they won the night before.
-- 76ers are 7-4 vs spread if they lost the night before.
-- Portland is 9-5-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Washington is 0-6 vs spread if it covered the night before.

• TOTALS
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-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Last ten Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last three New York games went over the total. Five of Orlando's last seven games stayed under.
-- Last five Chicago games went over the total.
-- Four of last five San Antonio games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Utah games stayed under the total.

• KEY TRENDS
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-- The under is 10-1 in Boston’s last 11 games.
-- The Chicago Bulls have covered in 21 of their last 28 games.
-- The New York Knicks have lost six in a row, both straight up and against the spread. New York has also lost each of its last six meetings with Orlando.
-- San Antonio has covered in only two of its last eight meetings with Portland.
-- Washington has covered in just eight of its last 31 road games.

• KEY STAT
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The Washington Wizards have allowed at least 110 points in seven of their last 10 games and not surprisingly, have won and covered only one game over that span. However, despite their rotten defense, the club has played under in 41 times this season including five of the team’s last seven games.

• QUICK HITS
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-- MILWAUKEE @ CHARLOTTE, 7:00 PM ET MILWAUKEE: 48-32 ATS off a SU loss. CHARLOTTE: 24-39 ATS revenging road loss.
-- BOSTON @ INDIANA, 7:00 PM ET BOSTON: 32-15 Under as road favorite of 6pts or less. INDIANA: 27-13 Under with revenge.
-- ORLANDO @ NEW YORK, 7:35 PM ET ORLANDO: 3-17 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. NEW YORK: 23-9 ATS as an underdog.
-- PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO, 8:00 PM ET NBA PHILADELPHIA: 49-28 ATS as underdog of 10 or more. CHICAGO: 14-2 Under revenging road loss.
-- PORTLAND @ SAN ANTONIO, 8:30 PM ET PORTLAND: 6-1 ATS L7 Monday games. SAN ANTONIO: 11-2 ATS playing with revenge.
-- WASHINGTON @ UTAH, 9:00 PM ET WASHINGTON: 11-25 ATS in road games. UTAH: 5-0 ATS revenging SU loss as road favorite.

• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS
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--Popovich is 94-57 UNDER (+31.3 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of SAN ANTONIO.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 47.4, OPPONENT 44.0 - (Rating = 4*)

-- Van Gundy is 62-33 UNDER (+25.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.5, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 4*)

-- D'Antoni is 36-13 OVER (+21.7 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive losses as the coach of NEW YORK.
The average score was NEW YORK 54.9, OPPONENT 55.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--Rivers is 8-24 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON.
The average score was BOSTON 48.7, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)

• NOTES & TIPS
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-- Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics: Rondo sat out Sunday’s game against Minnesota with a sprained pinky finger and his status for Monday’s game against Indiana is up in the air. Rondo is putting up 10.2 points and 11.4 assists per game. Oddsmakers have yet to post a line for this matchup.

-- The Orlando Magic will be without guards Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick for Monday's game at New York. Oddsmakers have the Magic set as a 1-point favorite with the total at 206.5. The Orlando Sentinel reported Nelson, who sprained his knee Friday vs. New Jersey, is doubtful to play. He is averaging 12.7 points and 6.0 assists and is listed as day to day. Redick will miss his ninth straight game with an abdominal injury. He is averaging 10.1 points, and coach Stan Van Gundy told the newspaper he is hopeful Redick can return Friday vs. Charlotte. The Magic also will be without reserve swingman Quentin Richardson due to back spasms. They are expected to start Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson in the backcourt, with Chris Duhon coming off the bench.

-- NBA referee Leon Wood has seen more of his games play under the total than any other ref in the Association. The over/under record in the games he has worked is 25-38 with his average game total of 196.4, which is also among the lowest numbers of regular NBA refs.

-- The San Antonio Spurs have lost three straight games for the first time this season. San Antonio dropped a 111-104 decision to Memphis on Sunday and also saw leading scorer Manu Ginobili go down with a quad injury late in the second quarter. He returned to play a bit in the second half, but wasn't himself. “At first, when I came to the bench, I thought I was going to be OK,” Ginobili said. “Then it stiffened up. I can’t put my full weight on it.” His status for Monday’s game against Portland is now uncertain.
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NOTE: The Stat/Systems Sports Power Ratings (Stan's Forecaster) are generated by a formula that weighs several key factors, including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. These ratings, which are updated on a daily basis are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a great long-term handicapping tool.

* Stat/Systems Sports renowned Outplay Factor Ratings, which are also updated on a daily basis have proven over the years to be a great team strength indicator: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined by a sophisticated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and points against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared.

* Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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*** #731 MILWAUKEE @ #732 CHARLOTTE (-1.5, O/U 177.5) ***
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Surprising back-to-back wins have helped the Charlotte Bobcats get back in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. Despite a disappointing loss their last time out, the Milwaukee Bucks' playoff hopes also remain very much alive. Seeking a third consecutive win for the first time in two months, the Bobcats will try for a fourth straight home victory over the Bucks in Monday night's pivotal matchup. Following a 2-10 stretch, it looked like the Bobcats (30-42) would miss out on the postseason for the sixth time in their seven-year history. However, after an 83-81 win at Boston on Friday with leading scorer Stephen Jackson on the sidelines and defeating New York 114-106 the following night, Charlotte still finds itself in ninth place in the East, one game behind Indiana for the final playoff spot.

"From the start of the year our goal was to make the playoffs, and we're still trying to attain that goal," forward Matt Carroll told the Bobcats' official website. "We're still fighting for it regardless of what the situation is." "We haven't given up and that's the goal of everybody -- coaches, players, the organization – and we're still fighting for it." Milwaukee (29-43), too, continues to stick around and sits just one game in back of Charlotte despite falling 95-87 to Chicago on Saturday. The Bucks led by as many 15 but were outscored 26-13 in the fourth quarter and suffered their fifth loss in eight games.

"We still got a chance (at the playoffs), it's gonna come down to probably the last couple games of the season -- we're still right there," said swingman John Salmons, who had 25 points. "We just have to continue to play (hard) down the stretch for the rest of the season and see what happens." Carlos Delfino went five of seven from 3-point range against the Bulls and finished with 23 points. Delfino has made 26 of 44 (59.1 percent) from long distance and is averaging 23.4 points over his last five games. After scoring a season-best 37 points in Friday's 102-96 win at New York, Brandon Jennings was held to 13 on 5-of-15 shooting Saturday.

Jennings, though, is averaging 26.0 points, 10.2 more than his season mark -- in two wins against Charlotte this season. Former All-Star Michael Redd, who tore ligaments in his left knee in each of the previous two seasons, could make his debut Monday. Jackson returned Saturday after sitting out against Boston with a hamstring injury that's sidelined him for five of 11 contests. "That motivated me to see those guys (win that game in Boston)," said Jackson, who scored 19 against the Knicks. "Everybody counted us out and the young guys got a win for us that we definitely needed.

"If our young guys can go out there and try to keep our season going, then that's more motivation for me....This is the best I've felt." Charlotte, which last won three in a row Jan. 25-28 while Jackson averaged 25.0 points, has lost three of four to Milwaukee but has taken three straight in the series at home. Jackson had made 10 of 18 from beyond the arc and averaged 30.0 points in his previous three matchups with the Bucks before failing to score in a 104-101 loss Nov. 27 after getting ejected for picking up two technical fouls less than six minutes in.

--CHARLOTTE is 26-8 UNDER (+17.1 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 47.0, OPPONENT 46.0 - (Rating = 3*)

--CHARLOTTE is 19-3 OVER (+15.6 Units) in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 98.3, OPPONENT 99.0 - (Rating = 3*)

*STAN’S FORECASTER - Charlotte by 1.5; O/U 181.5
*STAN’S POWER LINE - Charlotte -0.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Charlotte -0.49
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points.
(52-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.2%, +31.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.6, Opponent 51.1 (Average first half point differential = +1.5)

The situation's record this season is: (3-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (86-70).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (CHARLOTTE) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%).
(54-21 since 1996.) (72.0%, +30.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (45-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average score in these games was: Team 101.4, Opponent 99 (Average point differential = +2.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (41.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-13).

--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games.
(102-42 since 1996.) (70.8%, +55.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 177.5
The average score in these games was: Team 91.9, Opponent 91.9 (Total points scored = 183.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 66 (45.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (46-12).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call us toll-free in the office at 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” –Stan ‘The Man
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*** #733 BOSTON (-3, O/U 189) @ #734 INDIANA ***
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The Boston Celtics may be stumbling, but they're afforded the luxury of cruising into the playoffs with another Atlantic Division title. The Indiana Pacers don't have any margin for error if they're going to join them in the postseason. The Pacers attempt to create some breathing room in the tight race for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference by snapping a five-game slide to the Celtics on Monday night. Boston (50-21) has already clinched a fourth consecutive division title, so a 5-6 stretch heading into its final 10 games isn't overly concerning. The Celtics are only playing for seeding.

They are second in the conference, two games behind first-place Chicago and one-half game in front of Miami for third. The Pacers (32-42) aren't as comfortable, entering this game with a tenuous hold on eighth. Indiana is just one game ahead of ninth-place Charlotte and two in front of Milwaukee for 10th. Indiana has also played two more games than its pursuers, and its lead was put in further jeopardy following a 100-88 loss at Detroit on Saturday after falling 110-93 to Sacramento the previous night. "We just gave away two games in the last two nights to two teams that wanted it more, and just let other teams right back in the hunt," forward Danny Granger said Saturday.

"We have to step it up and if we don't we will be out of the playoffs." Getting swept in the four-game season series with Boston wouldn't help the Pacers' postseason chances. They've dropped 11 of 13 meetings with the Celtics, including five in a row while averaging 89.6 points on 40.2 percent shooting. Indiana made just 37.5 percent of its field goals in a 92-80 loss at Boston on March 16. Granger has struggled greatly over the last four contests versus the Celtics, making 28.6 percent of his field goals while hitting 4 of 23 from beyond the arc to average 16.3 points.

He's entering this matchup in sluggish shooting form, making 9 of 27 shots to total 34 points over the last two games. That may not improve with the Celtics playing stifling defense of late, yielding just 83.2 points over the last 10 games. However, they're also sputtering offensively in that span, scoring 85.9 points per contest. Boston appeared to be comfortably on its way to a victory Sunday, but blew a 25-point, second-quarter lead before pulling out an 85-82 win over Western Conference-worst Minnesota to open this four-game road trip.

"You've got to work to win them all," said forward Kevin Garnett, who had 13 points and 13 rebounds against the Timberwolves. It's unclear if Rajon Rondo, among the NBA's leaders with 11.4 assists per game, will play after sitting out Sunday's win with an injured right pinky finger. The All-Star point guard is averaging 9.6 points and 10.4 assists over his last seven meetings with Indiana, but has appeared in only one of three matchups this season due to injuries.

--INDIANA is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 53.6, OPPONENT 55.1 - (Rating = 3*)

--INDIANA is 18-5 against the 1rst half line (+12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was INDIANA 52.8, OPPONENT 49.5 - (Rating = 3*)

*STAN’S FORECASTER - Boston by 3.5; O/U 190
*STAN’S POWER LINE - Boston -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -4.27
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 175 points or less.
(98-19 since 1996.) (83.8%, +48.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -261.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.2, Opponent 91.5 (Average point differential = +9.7)

The situation's record this season is: (4-3, -4.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5, +8.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (42-9, +18.4 units).

--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (INDIANA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team.
(64-21 since 1996.) (75.3%, +40.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.7, Opponent 47.3 (Average first half point differential = +1.4)

The situation's record this season is: (3-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).

--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(39-13 since 1996.) (75.0%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 185.9
The average score in these games was: Team 90.7, Opponent 88.4 (Total points scored = 179.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (54.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1).
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