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brought this over from another site for those who might be interested in reading it.
Alan Eastman (Ace-Ace)
SD-6 1ST HALf $2000.00 -105
I think that it’s one of the strongest plays on the board. I also think that there is more value on this game in the first half than there is opening ourselves up to a back door cover on the large number. The Panthers have to travel cross-country without their best player, suspended wideout Steve Smith, and take on a team that many have destined for the Super Bowl. The Chargers covered all six of their non-divisional home games last year, winning all six by double-digit margins. They got off to fast starts in those games and we expect the same thing this weekend. The Chargers are 44-20-2 ATS overall and have been a dominating home team. I think they will overwhelm the visiting Panthers, who are still adjusting to the loss of their best player.
DET-3 $2500.00 -110
Matt Ryan is making his NFL debut at home against the visiting Lions and I expect him to make some typical rookie mistakes. The Falcons are firmly entrenched in a rebuilding mode. And while they will play hard they don’t have the overall talent to win many games this year. The main area where I expect Detroit to take advantage is against the weak Atlanta secondary. Detroit likes to throw the ball all over the field and I think they will have an easier time moving the ball than Atlanta will against an improving Detroit defense. Atlanta is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.
CIN-1.5 $2000.00 -110
The Ravens have not looked good at all this preseason and now they are breaking in a new quarterback and a new head coach. Baltimore is just 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games and 1-5 in its last six games in Week 1. This defense is not what it once was, and with an offense that is going to be even worse than what they’ve had to deal with over the last few years that’s a recipe for disaster.
IND-6.5 1ST HALF $800.00 -105
Just as with our play on San Diego, I think there is simply more value on the first half of this game than with the large numbers. The Chicago defense is not as strong as it has been and I am betting that Peyton Manning shakes off the rust early. Indy is facing a soft Cover-2, the same defense that they play, so nothing the Bears will do on D will be anything they aren’t used to. Kyle Orton is also an unproven quarterback making a start in the RCA Dome and I expect a slow start from a weak Chicago offense. We just need the Colts to be by a touchdown for this one to cash and I think they will be ahead much more than that at the break.
DAL-5.5 $600.00 -105
The Browns are a little banged up and I think the Cowboys are going to take advantage of that weak Cleveland secondary. Derek Anderson has not fully gotten over his concussion and hasn’t been able to find a rhythm with his receivers since he’s been out of action for several weeks. The Cowboys have covered five straight spreads in Week 1 and I think that they are going to be too talented for Cleveland in this one.
NYJ UNDER 36 $300.00 -103
When I look at these two teams I see two improved defenses and two new quarterbacks. On top of that this is going to be an intense rivalry game because it’s not only between two divisional foes, but between an ex-quarterback (Chad Pennington) that was dumped by his former team. The Dolphins have bought into the “Parcells Way” and that means playing good defense and running the ball. On top of that, Pennington knows the entire Jets playbook inside and out – even better than Brett Favre - and will have the Fins prepared for everything New York wants to do.
GB UNDER 38 $500.00 -105
Neither of the quarterbacks on either side is anything to write home about so I see the defenses dictating the tempo in this one. Green Bay was an exceptional ‘over’ team last year and has gone ‘over’ in eight straight NFC games. But streaks like that generally don’t carry over into the following year. Also, the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. Also, the ‘under’ is 15-6-1 in Minnesota’s last 22 games on grass.
SEA +1 $300.00 -106
The Seahawks offense will be fine with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm and I think that they are the better team in this situation. The Bills have been a poor team in the first-half of the year over the last few seasons, and they have lost some heart breakers in their home openers over the last few years. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series and the Seahawks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 September games.
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Originally Posted by MiamiBoy86
