[BoomerOK95]

i have lost so much on the pats ,i have to see em win first

[Red Man Spit]

I have always said there is NO NFL team worthy of getting 17+ points, that is until I saw Miami at home last year hosting New England. Still in all, I have a small play on KC +16'.

[Brady2Moss]

The play is Under in this game.

[roasthawg]

Give me any bad team +16 in the NFL, and I like them. In the first week, I LOVE them.

My thoughts exactly...I'm on the Chiefs and the under in this one.

[JoeMama51981]

The Pats stopped covering the spread late in the season because the lines were inflated. Thier D was lacking a bit but the line was constantly inflated.

If you really like KC.... I'd like to know why. All of the people that like KC are sighting reasons that NE won't be as good as last year. Let's get one thing staight, they DON"T HAVE TO BE as good as last year to beat a KC team with absolutely nobody good enough to mention by 21 to 24 points AT HOME.

[BossE]

yea i hear u, i got this odd line to make 12$ on a dollar on Kc are they really that bad?? i wouldent touch the ML but if it wins ill hate myself... other then that i like KC + pts and the Over..

Go KC??

[R3Sports]

We'll see, I'm sure the line will move slightly come Sunday.

[BossE]

Keep us posted

[Poker_Beast]

I agree JM - KC may be the worst team in the NFL and the Patriots the best so 16.5 points is not that much to cover for the Pats.

[topcat]

I'm I the only nut here that likes KC to cover vs the Pats week 1?

i believe the pats will win by 24,but good luck. do a altrenate line.you might need it.

[mgcolby]

Some people need to check their emotions at the door when it comes to NE. I understand people are tired of seeing them win, but Aging comments and they have declined are a little out of whack.

They lost Stallworth who by the end of the year was the 4th receiver behind Gaffney. Their oldest receiver is Moss at 31 the rest are all well under 30 accept Washington. They lost one of the most overrated CB's in the history of the NFL in Samuel, the guy can't play man for shit, doesn't change sides of the field to go with the number 1 receiver, racks up most of his picks against shitty QB's and costs his team as many big plays as he creates - if not more. Wheatley has played well as a rookie and O'neal should be able to help out.

The entire DL rotation is under 30, not to mention a healthy Seymour who for the first time in two years didn't have offseason surgery. The LB's got younger overall with Mayo playing very well on the inside, they added Victor Hobson to the inside as well. Vrabel had his best season as a pro last year, and Thomas is finally playing his true position on the outside. James Sanders is a very good safety who should bump Rodney's playing time down, Merriweather is a bit of an unknown as this will be his first season starting in the FS spot, but he will add some much needed speed and athleticism to the Pats secondary. Overall they got younger in the places they needed to get younger.

The OL has looked terrible during the preseason without Matt Light and Stephen Neil. Neil is on the PUP and Light is back, but Cassel didn't do his line any favors, often holding onto the ball too long. By the way Light is the only starting OL over 29, he is 30. In the backfield Jordan, Morris and Faulk are over 30 but that platoon of backs is solid.

There was some speculation about Brady's foot today with a possible stress fracture being discovered on an MRI. Its tough to say if that is true or not, especially when dealing with Ft. Foxboro. Either way I doubt he would have practiced on it if it was serious.

This team is talented from top to bottom on both sides of the ball, they have played more football than any other team over the past 8 seasons, and most importantly over the past two seasons. Burning your guys out in the preseason is pointless, so I would take the preseason of the Pats with a huge grain of salt. I think the same goes for the Colts as well.

My point is the defense should be better than last year and if you think that D wasn't good I would suggest a refresher. The offense will be just as good, but I think they may look to run the ball more which may reduce their scoring.

I won't tell anyone how or who to bet on, but I would suggest not betting against the Pats based on wishful thinking a lone.

[topcat]

Some people need to check their emotions at the door when it comes to NE. I understand people are tired of seeing them win, but Aging comments and they have declined are a little out of whack.

They lost Stallworth who by the end of the year was the 4th receiver behind Gaffney. Their oldest receiver is Moss at 31 the rest are all well under 30 accept Washington. They lost one of the most overrated CB's in the history of the NFL in Samuel, the guy can't play man for shit, doesn't change sides of the field to go with the number 1 receiver, racks up most of his picks against shitty QB's and costs his team as many big plays as he creates - if not more. Wheatley has played well as a rookie and O'neal should be able to help out.

The entire DL rotation is under 30, not to mention a healthy Seymour who for the first time in two years didn't have offseason surgery. The LB's got younger overall with Mayo playing very well on the inside, they added Victor Hobson to the inside as well. Vrabel had his best season as a pro last year, and Thomas is finally playing his true position on the outside. James Sanders is a very good safety who should bump Rodney's playing time down, Merriweather is a bit of an unknown as this will be his first season starting in the FS spot, but he will add some much needed speed and athleticism to the Pats secondary. Overall they got younger in the places they needed to get younger.

The OL has looked terrible during the preseason without Matt Light and Stephen Neil. Neil is on the PUP and Light is back, but Cassel didn't do his line any favors, often holding onto the ball too long. By the way Light is the only starting OL over 29, he is 30. In the backfield Jordan, Morris and Faulk are over 30 but that platoon of backs is solid.

There was some speculation about Brady's foot today with a possible stress fracture being discovered on an MRI. Its tough to say if that is true or not, especially when dealing with Ft. Foxboro. Either way I doubt he would have practiced on it if it was serious.

This team is talented from top to bottom on both sides of the ball, they have played more football than any other team over the past 8 seasons, and most importantly over the past two seasons. Burning your guys out in the preseason is pointless, so I would take the preseason of the Pats with a huge grain of salt. I think the same goes for the Colts as well.

My point is the defense should be better than last year and if you think that D wasn't good I would suggest a refresher. The offense will be just as good, but I think they may look to run the ball more which may reduce their scoring.

I won't tell anyone how or who to bet on, but I would suggest not betting against the Pats based on wishful thinking a lone.

great wright up man.pats are tough,and when its all said,and done the pats will be there at the end,and this comes from a die hard carolia panther fan.

[treece]

Chiefs are not as bad as people think. If you watched their preseason games you know what i'm talking about. The +17 i got should be good.

[arpeggiomeister]

entertain us with your money management strategy that will get you to 500%....

It is fairly simple. It is not for the faint of heart. First you must understand that the money I have allocated for sports wagering has replaced my high risk portion of my portfolio. I used to trade stock options until last year when I tried this for the first time. I am willing to risk the crap out of this money in order to achieve large gains. I know I am going to receive a lot of criticism for this because conventional wisdom recommends that your bets only amount to 2% of your account. This isn't the only thing I do to make money which is the key difference.

In my system you bet 50% of your account. I rely heavily upon 10 point teasers, but not exclusively. I took the Giants for -4 in a line bet. I have a teaser researched for this weekend depending on the outcome of the game on Thursday.
10 point teasers net approximately an 83% return on investment. (ROI) By placing bets with 50% of your account each time you compound your profits. If you can win 5 times in a row you will have over 500%. Let's say you start with $2,000. Here is how the compounding would look if you win all 5 bets:

1 - Bet $1,000 - win $830 new account balance - $2,830
2 - Bet $1,415 - win $1,174 new balance - $4,004
3 - Bet $2,000 - win $1,660 new balance - $5,664
4 - Bet $2,832 - win $2,350 new balance - $8,014
5 - Bet $4,000 - win $3,320 new balance - $11,334

At this point I pull $10,000 off the table and put it into the stock market where I sell covered calls which average me about 3% a month.

If I lose once it will take two winning bets to recover. Lose twice in a row and I'm done for the season, unless I can afford to recharge my account.

In my opinion it is easier to predict who will beat the spreads in the beginning of the season because teams haven't had enough time to figure each other out yet. I follow the weak teams and bet against them. I am looking for the best point spreads I can find.

In order to pull this strategy off you may find that you need multiple accounts due to maximum bet limits. I know sportbook.com is $2,000 for parlays and teasers, and $5,000 for straight bets. I have only had need for two but if my plan works than I foresee myself running 5+ books in tandem eventually.

That's the system. It's high risk, but it also allows your winners to truly have an impact. If I could get to the point where I could win more than 50% of my parlays it would make this system truly extraordinay. I'm working on it, but I'm not there yet. I researched the past 7 seasons using this system and only one season turned out to be a loser. One season only netted a small gain. The remaining 5 would have easily netted 500%. It would be complicated to explain every detail of my research but what I did was chose the 3 worst teams from each of the past season and bet against them regardless of who they were playing. I excluded bye weeks and weeks where they were facing each other. For these weeks I took the next worst teams on the food chain and substituted them. The highest return was over $52,000 for the season. Barring the one season for a loss and the other for a minimal gain, the next lowest result was over $28,000. My point wasn't to see if I can pull in $28,000 for a single season, but rather to see if I could conceivably win five 10 point teasers in a row. My research shows that it is very possible, but it is one thing to look at past results and a whole other thing to do it for real. I don't know who the 3 worst teams are going to be this year, but I have a pretty good guess. Kansas City is number 1 on my turd list.

There is obviously more to tell, but I'm writing a book here.

[counterfiet100]

Gl with that man post your picks and keep track for us it would be fun to watch. 10 pointers can be dangerous. really you just need to dodge a few bullets each week. i used to look for dogs that could win outright not necessarily the "worst" teams...

[RageWizard]

I think that Brady has been fine all preseason and Bellacheat is just up to his old tricks with the NFL public. N.E. rolls 35-7. So I guess I'm on N.E. this week even though I don't have the babaloons to bet this game. I hope N.E. does roll so I can fade them the rest of the year.

[arpeggiomeister]

[quote=counterfiet100;1009458]Gl with that man post your picks and keep track for us it would be fun to watch. 10 pointers can be dangerous. really you just need to dodge a

Thanks for the tip. Personally, I am not good enough to pick which dog will win, at least not usually. I picked two dogs last year in the same week and had a God complex for about 7days; until I got clobbered the next week. So much for my ego. hahaha

I barely knew the game last year. I've learned a lot, but I have much, much more to learn.

I have heard people say that 10 point teasers are dangerous but they have treated me really well. I sincerely hope it is not a case of beginner's luck. I had a touch of that when I first started trading stocks. I did really well dabbling with a couple hundred here and there, and then I went for it and watched $10,000 go up in smoke.

I value every opinion I come across, but on the same token you must be willing to take risks in order to make money.

Giants covered so if I can just win 4 more times I'll have it.

[LT Profits]

I have ZERO interest in this game, as it is the least attractive betting proposition of the week.

[frostno98]

If Brodie Croyle can pass, I can defiantly see KC covering. Dewanye Bowe will be a much better receiver this year, so having that, a healthy Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzales should give them more scoring opportunities.

[R3Sports]

Well, Bowe was very solid last season, especially as a rookie.

[purecarnagge]

you guys think the pats won't come out and do primal instinct number 1.

ESTABLISH DOMINANCE....

Chiefs are a joke...no offense no veterans...they will be asking Randy Moss for Autographs after he burns them for 6

[frostno98]

you guys think the pats won't come out and do primal instinct number 1.

ESTABLISH DOMINANCE....

Chiefs are a joke...no offense no veterans...they will be asking Randy Moss for Autographs after he burns them for 6

Pats will score, many times no doubt about that, but I don't see their Defense shutting anyone down. Especially with Assante samuels gone and a old secondary.

[R3Sports]

KC (+16 1/2) is a lot of points. If you can find 17, they basically need to win by THREE TD's to cover.

[purecarnagge]

You guys think 1 corner back makes the patriots pass defense... Its not like they haven't been replacing key guys year in and year out and producing results. need to get past a big name free agent leaving...

[mgcolby]

Pats will score, many times no doubt about that, but I don't see their Defense shutting anyone down. Especially with Assante samuels gone and a old secondary.

You mean Asante Samuel, who sucks ass? But hey if you picked off Joey Harrington 3 times in a game, within the same season you made 10 picks, you would be happy too. Just not an all pro!

Does anyone actually look up info on teams before they bet or come on betting forums and spout off?

Please elaborate on that "old secondary"?

[greenwave67]

At +16 1/2? I'd take it in a New York minute, Dan. I think this game will be closer than people are guessing. NE has aged and Brady may have a few confidence issues lingering from the SB - and I think he's a little wrapped up in some super model business these days, too.

Do you use a type of system to win your $$$?

[kingme]

I'm on KC

nice pick

[bmw530i]

Chiefs +16.5 and +1,100 on the ML

[JoeMama51981]

If Brodie Croyle can pass, I can defiantly see KC covering. .

HAHAHA That's a BIG "IF" don't you think???

[JoeMama51981]

Anyone who wants to take KC on the moneyline PM me and i'll give you my address... You can just sent me the $$.

[arpeggiomeister]

Gl with that man post your picks and keep track for us it would be fun to watch. 10 pointers can be dangerous. really you just need to dodge a few bullets each week. i used to look for dogs that could win outright not necessarily the "worst" teams...

Here's my week one 10 point teaser:

NE (vs KC) -5.5
PHI (vs STL) +2.5
DAL (vs CLE) +4

[Italia_NYC]

Give me any bad team +16 in the NFL, and I like them. In the first week, I LOVE them.

Agreed. I am loving KC in week 1 to cover. Plus, I personally believe the Giants beat Brady so bad, he will never resemble his old self again.

[Doc JS]

Plus, I personally believe the Giants beat Brady so bad, he will never resemble his old self again.

Based on what, exactly???

You haven't SEEN Brady this preseason. So, what pray tell, are you basing this opinion on???

Doc

[LINE-crush-ER]

the best bet on the board here is to bet on the cardinals 4th quarter .
well nothings ever a lock it would be luck that the third quarter would run out , with new england on the 1 .
but i will watch this game and to make it interesting to me . im taking 4th quarter cardinals , but not large

[Sforz]

Agreed. I am loving KC in week 1 to cover. Plus, I personally believe the Giants beat Brady so bad, he will never resemble his old self again.