[Dark Horse]

Based on coaching continuity and week-to-week preseason patterns. For example: IND is 6-2, 1-8, 5-1, and 1-5 ATS in weeks 1, 2, 3, and 4.

Week 2 fades: SEA, IND, TB
Week 2 play-on teams: NYJ, CIN

Using closing lines.

PHI was play on team and won yesterday (PHI preseason pattern in weeks 1 through 4 is 0-5, 10-0 (both including this season), followed by 1-7 ATS in week 3.

[Dark Horse]

Both Seattle and Chicago have longstanding coaching continuity, so preseason trends from week-to-week tend to be less coincidental. Chicago has a QB controversy, and Lovie Smith has said he will use his starters tonight into the 3Q.

SEA under Holmgren in preseason week 1 and 2: 4-1 ATS (now 5-1) and 1-7 ATS. 1-7 means Holmgren doesn't give a f*ck.

Take CHI 1H and full game.

[Dark Horse]

Reminder to self:

Whoa. What a crap shoot.

CHI up 19-9 going into 4Q, with only 3 pts by their offense...

OK, that's not crazy.

Earlier on Grossman did absolutely nothing, except throw an interception. So far, so good. Everything normal.

But that's where the resemblance to reality ended.

Bears QB controversy? Orton got like one series at the end of the 1H. He looked good. A lot more effective than Rex: FG Chicago on final drive of 1H, and 5-9 at the half. Just one little problem. Third string QB Hanie starts 2H for Chicago. So much for "starters into the 3Q". Nice going Lovie.

On the other end, Holmgren gave Hasselbeck the night off. It looked like he was throwing the starting Frye under the bus, damaging him for the rest of the season in a meaningless game, by leaving him in after throwing three INT's and no TD's. In spite of a total lack of offense, CHI got two quick TD's to take a 19-9 lead. Way to destroy Frye!

But wait. Suddenly the game is about something for the Seahawks. In the 4Q of a preseason game ..., and behind 9-19, Seattle goes on a mission: Saving private Frye. They score 17 unanswered points because Bears 3rd and 4th stringers can't stop the run. There goes 'SEA not caring'.

Somehow CHI still came back from a 19-26 deficit and, after a blocked punt, had a chance to win it with a last second 47 yard FG. At least Gould is good for that. Right? Wrong again.

SEA wins toss and kicks winning FG in OT. 29-26. In a preseason game about nothing...

I don't mind losing the bet, but as a capper I'm p*ssed off with myself for being drawn into a game that was so chaotically beyond what I had envisioned. I blame only myself. For some reason (football itch) I -again- allowed myself to be talked into the idea that preseason games can be capped. Next year, when people tell you in a matter of fact way that preseason games are easy and that the coaches will give you the gameplan upfront, remember this game, wish them luck, and move on.