Here are the stats comparing pittsburgh's opponents pass yards compared to their average pass yards per game:
Team Pass rank W/L Yards compared to average
NO - 3rd L +11
NE - 11th L +110
CINx2 - 13th W,W -97
ATL - 15th W (OT) +15
MIA - 16th W +29
TB - 17th W +18
BALx2 - 20th L,W,W -57
NYJx2 - 22nd L,W -15
OAK - 23rd W -77
BUF - 24th W +58
CLEx2 - 29th W,W +68
CAR - 32nd W -98
The steelers give up more yards than the opponent averages. The only major anomalies are Cincinnati, who are garbage, and Carolina, who they played week 17 and were the worst team in the league far and away at that point. Oakland is no good to begin with either.
New England had the most success against Pit, and they lined up with 4 wide receivers almost the entire game, which is the same type of attack that GB will employ, and with better receivers.
Here are Green Bay's Passing yards compared to the opponents average pass yards against:
Team Yards-against rank W/L Yards Compared to Average
BUF - 3rd W +63
NYJ - 6th W -44
MIA - 8th L +74
NYG - 9th L +187
MNx2 - 10th W,W +249
PHIx2 - 15th W,W -92
DET - 16th W,L -49
CHIx3 - 20th L,W,W +101
ATLx2 - 22nd L,W +237
SF - 24th W +43
DAL - 26th W +34
NE - 30th W -32
WSH - 31st W +9
The only anomalies here are the Eagles and Lions. In both games against the Eagles the Packers got out to big leads early and ended up playing conservative because of it. I can't see them getting out to a 'big' lead against the Steelers. Against the Lions, they got out to a big lead in the first game and played conservative. In the second game Greg Jennings had a pass bounce off his helmet that would have been a 70ish(don't remember the exact yardage) yard touchdown but was instead intercepted. Rodgers was knocked out of the game shortly after.
They have consistantly gotten many more yards than the defenses they have played average, and they are built for turf. In fact in Rodger's 4 games on turf this year GB averaged 337 yards on 80/103 (77%).
The packers have also played against a top 10 pass D 6 times this year, compared to the Steelers who only played against one top 10 passing O, and one 11th ranked, in which they were beat handily in both and gave up massive passing stats.
The steelers don't allow teams to run on them. Period. No argument. And the Packers just plain can't run. Which means as long as the packers arent blowing out the steelers (and even then), they will be passing the entire game. No matter what side you're playing this looks like a very good bet to me.
(Edit: The o/u number in the SBR sportsbook is only 244! If you're looking to make some easy points you could look into that...)
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Aaron Rodgers passing yard prop
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