1. #1
    Willie Bee
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    Front Page NFL Picks (Sat., Aug 9)

    Dallas Cowboys, San Diego Chargers to sneak Under 35½

    Game Time: 08/09/2008 10:00 PM -
    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

    The Under has hit at 60 percent in Week 1 of preseason in games with totals set this high since 2000, and the recent trends for the Cowboys and Chargers support this.

    Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers have been notorious for giving their best players very limited action in the preseason, while the Dallas Cowboys have also shown little in exhibition road games in recent years, so look for a rather dull, low scoring game here.

    In fact, Turner held out LaDainian Tomlinson entirely last preseason, and that may have been a contributing factor to his slow stat when the real games began in September. As a result of their conservatism with their stars, the Chargers have traditionally struggled to score points in Week 1, averaging just 12.8 points in their last five openers with their largest point output being 17 points.

    As low as this seems, it looks like a downright explosion when compared to how the Cowboys have done in their last five openers! Dallas is averaging an anemic 9.40 points in preseason Week 1 since 2003 with the Under going a perfect 5-0, and even that low figure is skewed by a 23-point performance the only time they opened at home during this span. On the four occasions that Dallas has opened on the road in the last five year, they scored 0, 0, 11 and 13 points respectively.

    Finally, the Under is 79-52, 60.3 percent in all NFL Week 1 preseason games with a posted total higher than 35 since 2000, including 1-0 this season.

    Free Pick: Cowboys, Chargers Under 35½ (-110)

  2. #2
    Willie Bee
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    Cash Colts +4 at Carolina Panthers

    Game Time: 08/09/2008 07:30 PM -
    By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

    Even without Peyton Manning in their lineup, having a game under their belt should benefit the Colts on the road Saturday night when Indianapolis travels to take on Carolina.

    I like the 'one game under the belt' angle here as Indianapolis did produce some offense in the Hall of Fame Game but let Washington move the chains at will and they gave up big plays. While it is still the preseason, Indy will shore up defensive assignments and give the starters more playing time.

    Quarterback Jim Sorgi needs some snaps and word is he will get them in this game. And the Colts, even without Peyton Manning ready to play, have some depth at QB and RB. Manning's injury is a closely guarded secret after surgery, but just in case I expect Sorgi to get as full quarter or more in this one.

    Carolina is weak in depth at QB behind Jake Delhomme, and I do not expect him more than two or three series after an injury-riddled season last year. Many starters are out for Carolina, and even though they are at home, I like the visitors.

    Free Pick: Colts +4 (-107)

  3. #3
    Willie Bee
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    Dolphins -2½ swim past Buccaneers

    Game Time: 08/09/2008 07:30 PM -
    By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

    New QB Chad Pennington isn't going to see any action for the Dolphins tonight, but that won't stop new head coach Tony Sparano and Miami from going for the win vs. the Buccaneers.

    A new era begins in Miami. Head coach Tony Sparano is in his rookie season while director of football operations is under the watchful eye of Bill Parcells. The goal is to get better right away and that starts from Game 1.

    Tampa Bay is a veteran team and while the goal is to get back into the playoffs, that does not start in the preseason. With such a veteran team, coaches look at young players early for roster spots and we will get a glimpse of that right away on Saturday.

    Quarterback rotations are huge in the preseason and Miami is in good shape. Rookies get long looks in the exhibition games and there is already good news here. Michigan graduate Chad Henne has showed a grasp of the offense and a strong, accurate arm.

    “The game is starting to slow down for Henne,” Sparano said.

    The starter, veteran Josh McCown, has shown a better command of the system and is clearly the most accurate of the three quarterbacks in camp. John Beck got a lot of experience last year as well.

    On the other side for Tampa Bay, Jeff Garcia will not play against the Dolphins due to an injured calf. Head coach Jon Gruden said that he is not concerned and will be taking looks at rookie Josh Johnson as well as forgotten man Chris Simms. Going up against the Buccaneers will be a confident defense already. Miami has a more simplified defense and a veteran lineup that includes a couple of former Dallas players that can help with any schematic transitions.

    First year head coaches are more concerned than veteran coaches when it comes to winning and losing in the exhibition season. This especially holds true in the first ever preseason game where they want to hit the ground running and bring in a winning attitude right away. This especially holds true in Miami. The Dolphins had only one victory last season and if there is any team that is going to go out and try to win in the preseason, it is the Dolphins. Play Miami for 1½ units.

    Free Pick: Dolphins -2½ (-113)

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