1. #1
    Brady2Moss
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    Profitable NFL Week 1 Stat

    Over the 2000-2007 seasons I have come across a nice little stat.

    In week 1 of those years (112 games) the under has hit 24 more times than the over.

    Under is 68-44 (60.7%)

    Just thought you guys would like to know about this profitable angle in Week 1 NFL action

  2. #2
    LT Profits
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    It's not just Week 1. Under is 646-548-18, 54.1% in ALL SEPTEMBER games since 1985, a percentage that could be improved on with some simple filters.

    For example, Sepember Under improves to 440-337-14, 56.6% if a team is coming off of an Over.

  3. #3
    pharmorjac
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    Anyone just going to blindly bet all the unders? If you bet $1,000 on each under, and hit 60% what sort of profit would that be?

  4. #4
    Brady2Moss
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    Hey LT, where did you get those numbers? Because I had to enter in the data from each year into an Excel file and do some number crunching on there. Ive been looking for a stats website like that but nobody gives the exact link. PPL just say covers.com but I never find what im looking for.

    Pharmorjac. If you bet all 16 games under for Week 1 in the nfl at 60% you would be approx 9.6-6.4 (on avg). for a profit (w/ 20cent lines) of 2.56 Units

    If you cannot do this calculation I highly doubt you should be gambling

  5. #5
    Brady2Moss
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    Also, can you really trust data from 1985, the game has changed since then, thats why I only included 2000-2007

  6. #6
    LT Profits
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    Brady,

    I use WinPicks, available at http://microbro.com/

  7. #7
    LT Profits
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    Now let me work on Septemeber numbers since 2000 only

  8. #8
    FreeFall
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    will you be betting pre-season NFL LT?

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    Since 2000 only:

    ALL September Unders - 225-189-5, 54.3%
    September Under off of Over - 188-151, 55.5%

  10. #10
    LT Profits
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    FreeFall,

    Yes but starting next week. If you MUST make a play tonight, go small on the UNDER

  11. #11
    Bread
    I beat Robyn. A lot!
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    Why is the o/u on tonight's game only 31'?

    Won't there be at least 3 accidental def tds?

    Ug.

  12. #12
    FreeFall
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    FreeFall,

    Yes but starting next week. If you MUST make a play tonight, go small on the UNDER

    thanks, I'll be patient. Sadly I've learned self-control so I won't be betting it.

  13. #13
    CHRISSANGEL
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    this is stretch stat but good luck.

  14. #14
    Justin7
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    The market has gotten smarter.

    How are unders in the last 3 years?

  15. #15
    durito
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    As Justin suggested, you need to be very careful betting into situations like this.

    You can find all sorts of angles like this, if you data mine hard enough you can find 75% ATS angles, but they may very well have no predictive ability at all.

    Home underdogs were 55% ATS from 1978-2000. They are 50% since.

    There are no easy ways left to make money betting full game sides and totals in the NFL. As Justin said, the market incorporates all of this information.

    If I come across something like this, I want to know why it has happened. Has scoring historically been lower in Sept? Why? Can you account for this in your model?

    If you blindly bet angles you'll never know when it's already been incorporated into the line.

  16. #16
    treece
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    FreeFall,

    Yes but starting next week. If you MUST make a play tonight, go small on the UNDER
    I think we all MUST make a play tonight. Even if it is a preseason game. Its the NFL, we've been waiting months for this. I got Under 31.5 -105.

  17. #17
    Brady2Moss
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    As Justin suggested, you need to be very careful betting into situations like this.

    You can find all sorts of angles like this, if you data mine hard enough you can find 75% ATS angles, but they may very well have no predictive ability at all.

    Home underdogs were 55% ATS from 1978-2000. They are 50% since.

    There are no easy ways left to make money betting full game sides and totals in the NFL. As Justin said, the market incorporates all of this information.

    If I come across something like this, I want to know why it has happened. Has scoring historically been lower in Sept? Why? Can you account for this in your model?

    If you blindly bet angles you'll never know when it's already been incorporated into the line.
    Thats a good point

    But Im still going to bet unders, since the avg O/U for games wont change.

  18. #18
    Brady2Moss
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Brady,

    I use WinPicks, available at http://microbro.com/
    Do you have to pay for this? Arent there any free services?

  19. #19
    LT Profits
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    WinPicks is worth the price, especially the 4-sport parlay pack.

  20. #20
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brady2Moss View Post
    Thats a good point

    But Im still going to bet unders, since the avg O/U for games wont change.
    why

  21. #21
    Brady2Moss
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    If you take the average of the O/U total for all nfl games this season (not including preseason) it will be very close to 41.107 points/game.

    for 2000 - Avg was 41.45
    2001-39.77
    2002-41.5
    2003-41.01
    2004-41.82
    2005-41.10
    2006-40.54
    2007-41.60

  22. #22
    Brady2Moss
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    So LT, what exactly do you get with this winpicks program? Is it just a stats archive where you can enter different parameters and factors to filter the stats?

  23. #23
    LT Profits
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    Yes. Just download the free trial version and play with it. I have also developed some nice formulas and consensuses that have seemed to hold up so far.

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