Originally Posted by
durito
As Justin suggested, you need to be very careful betting into situations like this.
You can find all sorts of angles like this, if you data mine hard enough you can find 75% ATS angles, but they may very well have no predictive ability at all.
Home underdogs were 55% ATS from 1978-2000. They are 50% since.
There are no easy ways left to make money betting full game sides and totals in the NFL. As Justin said, the market incorporates all of this information.
If I come across something like this, I want to know why it has happened. Has scoring historically been lower in Sept? Why? Can you account for this in your model?
If you blindly bet angles you'll never know when it's already been incorporated into the line.