1. 07-23-08 07:37 PM #1
    Justin7
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    Arena Bowl play...

    San Jose +4. Not quite lock board, but it is solid.
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  2. 07-23-08 08:13 PM #2
    diogee
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    Solid video Justin...thanks for sharing and good luck.
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  3. 07-23-08 09:08 PM #3
    BuddyBear
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    Damn, that was good. Nice job Justin!
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  4. 07-23-08 09:09 PM #4
    robmpink
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    gl
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  5. 07-23-08 09:15 PM #5
    onthewhat
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    great video...
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  6. 07-23-08 09:21 PM #6
    durito
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    Nice job Justin
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  7. 07-23-08 09:25 PM #7
    BeatTheJerk
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    intresting logic but nothing is a science ............. this game could go either way just like most games we bet on .........
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  8. 07-23-08 09:28 PM #8
    dwaechte
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    Very cool Justin. Best of luck this weekend
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  9. 07-23-08 09:30 PM #9
    gordon gekko
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    Nice break down Justin.. However I already took Philly and I am sticking with it.
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  10. 07-24-08 03:53 AM #10
    LLXC
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    Liking San Jose as well. Hoping for a repeat!
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  11. 07-24-08 04:00 AM #11
    pat venditto
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    I like the video justin. Keep em coming!
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  12. 07-25-08 09:38 AM #12
    InTheHole
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    Bump...excellent post....currently +3.5 @ 5 dimes. Which way do you see this line going Justin?
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  13. 07-25-08 09:40 AM #13
    Justin7
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    Not sure. Early money was on San Jose, which surprised me.
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  14. 07-25-08 09:54 AM #14
    InTheHole
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    Not sure which way I'm going to go on this one but you and your associates presented some overwhelming evidence to support SJ...I think the best bet is SJ but I suspect a lot of people are going to hammer Philly. BM has them at -4...may wait until tonight.
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  15. 07-25-08 01:39 PM #15
    Bill Dozer
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    Nice job J7. Anyone who hopes to win betting sports should bookmark a few of our posters starting with Justin IMO.

    Justin is doing a regular series for SBRforum and will eventually be featured on SBR.TV.
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  16. 07-25-08 02:59 PM #16
    max_asdf
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    sbr tv? o.O
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  17. 07-25-08 03:00 PM #17
    max_asdf
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    broadcast all games live plz
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  18. 07-25-08 03:05 PM #18
    VBOMBER
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dozer View Post
    Nice job J7. Anyone who hopes to win betting sports should bookmark a few of our posters starting with Justin IMO.
    Is there a way to bookmark posters? Does this enable you to go to their specific posts and threads from a certain unique individual home page?

    I know about clicking on a poster's name and "finding more posts by that poster," but was looking for something I could set up for multiple posters just to view those posts/threads quickly w/o having to sort through the rest.
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  19. 07-25-08 03:08 PM #19
    Bill Dozer
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    Quote Originally Posted by VBOMBER View Post
    Is there a way to bookmark posters? Does this enable you to go to their specific posts and threads from a certain unique individual home page?

    I know about clicking on a poster's name and "finding more posts by that poster," but was looking for something I could set up for multiple posters just to view those posts/threads quickly w/o having to sort through the rest.
    You will have a MySBRforum page soon where you can set up your handicapper network. One of the features will be to keep a group of your favorite posters to read.
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  20. 07-25-08 03:08 PM #20
    max_asdf
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    some my5 crap ppl were talking about earlier?
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  21. 07-25-08 03:44 PM #21
    Bill Dozer
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    right, it will give you something like you see what you click on "My Posts"
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  22. 07-25-08 03:50 PM #22
    InTheHole
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    I got SJ +4 because of what you presented. Without looking at the numbers I would guess that Philadelphia had the edge. I think SJ wins this one outright by 10.
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  23. 07-25-08 04:16 PM #23
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheHole View Post
    I got SJ +4 because of what you presented. Without looking at the numbers I would guess that Philadelphia had the edge. I think SJ wins this one outright by 10.
    good luck.

    Remember, I lose almost half my bets... so don't bet too much on any one play. 1% of your bank is a good normal limit.
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  24. 07-25-08 04:23 PM #24
    Immortality
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    Very nice video Justin.
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  25. 07-25-08 04:53 PM #25
    pico
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    justin, i don't understand your onside kick logic. if san jose falls behind, they'll do onside kicks also.

    another one, is it really luck to recover fumbles? talent could be mistaken for luck...if the offense team work together better, then they would recover more fumbles.

    other than that, great video...it is alway nice to put a picture to the poster name...i believe this is the first informative youtube video on sbr
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  26. 07-25-08 04:57 PM #26
    minet123
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    Great video justin I'm with you on Saber Kittys
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  27. 07-25-08 05:02 PM #27
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by picoman View Post
    justin, i don't understand your onside kick logic. if san jose falls behind, they'll do onside kicks also.

    another one, is it really luck to recover fumbles? talent could be mistaken for luck...if the offense team work together better, then they would recover more fumbles.

    other than that, great video...it is alway nice to put a picture to the poster name...i believe this is the first informative youtube video on sbr
    SJ doesn't do that many onsides kicks - only in the last minute. Their coach plays perfect onsides strategy. They will try it if down 2+ scores, AND last minute of game. If 5 minutes in q4, they'll let their D get it back.

    fumbles... If you look at fumble distribution in prior years, there is less than a 15% correlation of fumbles to offense, and even less to defense. Skill might be involved (e.g. Phili's line protects well), but the numbers suggest it is mostly a crap-shot.
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  28. 07-25-08 05:16 PM #28
    pico
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    justin, by your logic, isn't it much better to take sj ML?

    here is the reasoning. philly is not that good at FG, so they'll likely to win by a TD than a FG, so +3 to +4 doesn't do you any good. if SJ is more than 3 pts behind in the late 4Q, then why would they try for a FG?...so either they lose by more than 3 pts or win. i think your calculation is right, so why not take the ML...the 3 pts woudn't come in to play at all.

    the only possible scenario that +3 is important is when philly miss 1-3 extra points.
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  29. 07-25-08 07:30 PM #29
    Justin7
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    Pico,

    I like the moneyline also.

    What if Phili misses 1-2 PATs more than SJ, and SJ kicks a FG? Then +3x/4 become very valuable. Other weird things can happen in too.. safeties, 2-pt conversion. But I like both side and ML.
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  30. 07-27-08 06:45 PM #30
    InTheHole
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    Can't believe it Justin! I packed this one in with 45 seconds left and went to sleep. Everything in the AFL has fallen my way this season and in no way can I attribute any of that success to solid handicapping. This one reminded me of the over I hit on July 5th when Colorado and SJ scored a combined 56 in the 4th quarter.

    Good luck moving forward.
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