[PhillySouljah]

I was just looking at some of the AFC Champion odds and I'm puzzled by something:

Baltimore Ravens +800
Indianapolis Colts +1000
Kansas City Chiefs +1500
New England Patriots -160
New York Jets +1000
Pittsburgh Steelers +275

Doesn't it work like +800 means a successful $100 bet nets you $800?

If so, what the heck? If you put $100 on each of the Colts, Ravens, Jets, and Chiefs, your net gain/loss profile would look like this depending on which team finally wins the AFC:

Pats win: -400 (lose your $400 wager)
Steelers: -400
Ravens: +500 (+800- $300 lost wager)
Colts: +700
Jets: +700
Chiefs: +1200

That seems to indicate to me that the bookkeepers believe that there is a 55% chance the AFC champ will be either PIT or NE and another 45% that it will be any of the other 4 playoff teams.

If the actual probability of PIT or NE winning the AFC is lower than 55%, then that would be a steal of a wager.

Are the Pats or Steelers that likely to win the AFC?

I looked at the NFC and you can't do the same put $100 on 4/6 team strategy; best case scenario there (unless you bet on the Seahawks and they win), you'll net ~0 but are exposing yourself to possible losses for nothing. In the AFC, the average net gain is $383 if the probability of teams winning is equal.

Is this like a duh betting opportunity?


Thanks

[k13]

You can get way better odds and yes they think its that likely those two will make the super bowl.