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Steelers, Patriots make for easy AFC picks
Steelers, Patriots make for easy AFC picks
While several of the NFC divisions appear to be up for grabs, the AFC provides some clear choices for their eventual division winners, including the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots.
Picking the division winners in the NFC wasn't too much of a stretch; only the NFC South was truly up for grabs in my mind – since there's no way I'm putting my money on Tarvaris Jackson (70.8 QB rating) to lead the Minnesota Vikings anywhere.
But figuring out the mighty AFC should be considerably more difficult. Shouldn't it?
Not according to the betting odds. Each of the four divisions has a favorite priced at higher than even money; the 4-7 Cowboys were the only such team in the NFC. We're talking four pretty damn good teams here, too. Yet I only see one of the divisions as being truly airtight. This could prove to be a great year for value handicappers in the AFC.
AFC East: New England Patriots
So the Patriots went 18-1 last year instead of 19-0. And they went 1-8 against the spread to finish out the season. Let's not hold that against them in this case. The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East and the entire league. Barring some catastrophe involving Tom Brady (117.2 QB rating), Gisele Bündchen (36-24-35) and a salad shooter, they're not going to be challenged by the Dolphins, Jets or the Bills. New England is a 1-8 chalk to win the AFC East and rightly so.
You'd have to dig pretty deep to find any aspect of the game of football the Patriots got wrong last year. They finished 19th in defensive run blocking, and their red-zone defense wasn't pristine. New England will focus on improving those areas in camp, content in the knowledge that their offense is all that and a bag of chowder.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have the longest odds of any of the AFC divisional favorites at 5-6. They'll get a run for their money from the Browns (3-2) and Bengals (9-2), both of whom are talented yet uncertain commodities capable of who knows what. With Pittsburgh, you know you're going to get QB Ben Roethliserger (104.1 passer rating), one of the absolute best in the game. You're also going to get a defense that was ranked second in the league in efficiency last year.
But the Steelers have been associated with power running for some time, and that was actually their weak link last year. Willie Parker ran for 1,316 yards last year. Big whoop - that was on 4.1 yards per carry, and he got into the end zone twice. I like first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall to come in right away and give Pittsburgh something more useful at running back.
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a brilliant football team. They're 5-8 to win the South, and they're coming off a 13-3 (9-7 ATS) campaign. Just one problem – okay, two problems: Jacksonville (11-5 last year) and Tennessee (10-6). None of these three teams is about to slack off in 2008.
As a pure pick, Indy is still the obvious choice. This team is only one season removed from winning the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning (98.0 QB rating) is still in his prime, his Colts offense is outstanding, and the defense improved from 27th to third in efficiency after winning the Super Bowl. But as a handicapper, I'm looking at Tennessee brimming with value at 7-1.
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
San Diego had two different seasons under Norv Turner. In his first year at the switch, the Chargers went 4-4 SU and ATS to start the season, then 7-1 SU and ATS to win the West. They even beat the Colts on the road in the Divisional round and gave the Patriots a rough ride in New England before finally bowing out.
Maybe they would have made the Super Bowl if Philip Rivers (82.4 QB rating) had been at full health. He wasn't the only gimpy Charger last year, either, which makes me unwilling to touch them at 1-6 odds when Denver is lurking. But like the Colts, San Diego has proven itself the team to beat.
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Originally Posted by Panic
bus stallions.i believe new england is the team to beat.
