1. #1
    F42294
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    Just My Picks

    New to the forum, starting a hopefully long running thread of my picks.

    Mainly NFL picks but will occassionally stray into NBA, College FB & BB and some exotics. Don't look for NHL or any kind of soccer ever but I have been known to jump on a tennis matchup if something looks strange.

    Turkey Day Picks

    New England is still one of the best teams in the NFL even if they have been a little under your radar to start the year. Yes they are on the road on a short week but they also have one of the most creative and experienced coaches in the NFL and run a system that has been in place for a long time. Their system is such that they don't spend as much timing preparing for an individual team as they do playing their own game. Detroit is a bad team in the weaker NFC but they have been an ATS machine this year going 7-2 in all games and 4-1 as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 pts. Both of Detroits wins have also come at home which is where they will be hosting NE Thursday. So your initial thought is NE will kill Detroit, but then you look at the trends and you think, oh no Detroit will lose but by 6 or less. So which one is it? In this case go with your initial thoughts, everyone knows these trends and they are figured into the line. This line should be 10-12 pts, not 7!!! It opened at 7 and should have shot up to 9 almost instantly but the ATS trends of both Detroit and NE are keeping it at 7 which provides a great value for a smart player. Look for New England to get up early and put it in cruise control. Detroit will exploit NE's weakness in pass defense to stage a late comeback in the 2nd half and will get within 2 scores but NE should be able to milk the clock and play just enough defense to cover the 7 pts. Expect to sweat out a 10 point win but a payday none the less. PICK New England -7 over Detroit.

    I liked another pick a lot on Thursday but the Carson Palmer injury is keeping me from recommending it. I still like the pick but I would have loved it if Palmer was 100%. The New Jets have only 1 win against a team with a winning record this year and they seem to win their games with heroics in the 4th qtr. even against bad teams. Cincinnati is a bad team again this year (Marvin Lewis next head coach to be fired??? I think he makes it to the end of the year but isn't back next year) but they have a lot of talent at the skills positions. Even on this bad team, TO is the #3 reciever in yardage and still has the ability to break games open and Cedrick Benson is in the top half of running backs behind a OL that needs major help. Jets are the far superior team and will be at home on a short week but they will overlook Cincinnati and instead will be focused on their week 13 game at NE on MNF. The play here with a healthy Carson Palmer would have been Cincinnati +9 as the Jets win but do it with a drive in the final 2 minutes and win by 7pts or less. I may still take this play myself after the Pre-Game injury report but it won't be an official pick for me on this forum.

    Sunday Games

    So far I only like one game this Sunday (Week 12) but it is a SU +130 underdog play. San Diego is showing a penchent for slow starts and FIRE finishes the past couple of years and this year appears to be no exception. Their destruction of Denver on MNF in Week 11 announced the start of their FIRE SEASON. The Colts are down to one player....Payton Manning. Almost a football god on the gridiron Payton is one of the best players to ever play the game and some games he is able to play 1 on 11 and come out on top, however against this San Diego team at this time of year Payton won't be able to do it himself. While the Jets will be pulling out a victory over Cincinnatti with a last minute drive Payton's Colts won't be close enough at the end of the game to even have a final 2 minute drive. Look for a good 1st drive from the Colts but then San Diego takes over and own's the rest of the game. San Diego is getting 3pts but ignore the points as the Bolts win outright. PICK San Diego SU +130 over Indianapolis.

    GL to all which ever plays you make and have a SAFE and happy holiday.

  2. #2
    F42294
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    Ok, not exactly how I thought it would go down but a nice cover in the 2nd half. Nice not to have to sweat out a last touchdown drive by the Lions. 1-0 to start my picks on the forum. Not taking anything in the NO vs DAL game but if you held a gun to my head I'd take NO with Reggie Bush back and everyone high on a Dallas team that has both under and over achieved this year.

  3. #3
    F42294
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    Quote Originally Posted by F42294 View Post
    Sunday Games So far I only like one game this Sunday (Week 12) but it is a SU +130 underdog play. San Diego is showing a penchent for slow starts and FIRE finishes the past couple of years and this year appears to be no exception. Their destruction of Denver on MNF in Week 11 announced the start of their FIRE SEASON. The Colts are down to one player....Payton Manning. Almost a football god on the gridiron Payton is one of the best players to ever play the game and some games he is able to play 1 on 11 and come out on top, however against this San Diego team at this time of year Payton won't be able to do it himself. While the Jets will be pulling out a victory over Cincinnatti with a last minute drive Payton's Colts won't be close enough at the end of the game to even have a final 2 minute drive. Look for a good 1st drive from the Colts but then San Diego takes over and own's the rest of the game. San Diego is getting 3pts but ignore the points as the Bolts win outright. PICK San Diego SU +130 over Indianapolis. GL to all which ever plays you make and have a SAFE and happy holiday.
    Can anyone say EZ WIN!!! So glad I took this game SU (actually I took San Diego -3.5 +190). Hope everyone was with me and several other cappers on this forum and took San Diego to the bank.

    I don't make a lot of pick recommendations but I hope to be on the money everytime I throw one out here.

    2-0 isn't a "Oh we gotta follow this guy" type record but I don't want to just throw out games I think are good picks, I want every game I post to be what others would call a 5* lock or whatever their "best pick" reference happens to be this week.

    GL to everyone whatever games you happen to be on and I'll be looking to post another pick or 2 real soon.

  4. #4
    F42294
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    Heads up everyone....

    NCAA B pick coming on Tuesday and another NFL underdog SU winner that I'm looking at for Sunday. Look for the NCAA B pick around NOON and then NFL pick will come out sometime Thursday if I still feel it is a good pick. Looking to get an NBA or more NCAA B picks later this week.

    GL whoever you are on this week.

  5. #5
    F42294
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    Ok, I really like this pick but so does 93% of the public. I HATE taking a pick when 93% of the public is taking the same pick but I feel like I have to make this an official pick anyway. The public can't be wrong 100% of the time, right?

    NCAA B - ACC vs Big 10

    The ACC usually does very well in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge as evidenced by the Virgina upset of #13 Michigan on Monday night AT Michigan. Tonight Ohio State travels to Florida State for another ranked vs unranked matchup. Florida State is off to a good 5-1 start with easy cupcake victories and a tough loss to a ranked Florida team. Ohio State loss National Player of the Year Evan Turner to the NBA last year but they still return 4 starters and had an awesome recruiting class landing the #2 High School center as well as William Buford who was chosen as one of only 20 players to make up the practice squad for the US National Team this past summer. Ohio State is only 3-5 in the ACC/Big 10 challenge again showing the strenght of ACC teams, however Ohio State is 4-0 vs Florida State all time including a 13 point win last year. This game promises to be a defensive struggle and foul trouble could play a major part in the final score. Again this gives and edge to an extremely deep Ohio State team that should find plenty of ways to score while still putting up a good defensive effort against a Florida State team that relies on defense to win. I look for the total to go UNDER, however the play is Ohio State (buy the .5pt) -4. OHIO STATE -4 (buy the half point).

  6. #6
    trevor123698
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    After my win last night on SF and the under I tossed 5 bucks on a parlay of OSU and the under..Hope your right but its cool either way...nice picking so far though

  7. #7
    F42294
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    Good job with SF last night, Trevor. I didn't look at anything yesterday until it was too late. SF was a great pick that I totally missed out on, I did get a little last second bet down on Dallas in the NBA over Houston. A few too many Ace Pear Cider's Sunday night to do any serious capping Monday. Special thanks to the Mavs for picking up my bar tab....lol.

    Thanks for your support.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  8. #8
    F42294
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    Under looks GREAT trevor!!! Ohio St looking good too but I'm never happy with any lead in College BB when 10-0 runs are common. Lets hope they hold on and continue to pull away!!!

  9. #9
    fuggles
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    3-0 start for you.

    Keep posting your well thought out and, so far, dead on picks.

  10. #10
    trevor123698
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    Yeah good job man. I just had a feeling about this game after you broke it down about this toruney. Gambling is easy you just gotta not worry about who your betting on and pick off the broken lines. I started this year(7 weeks ago for me) with $50 and I'm up to $128 right now. You got me 13 of them so I'm gonna tail you.

    As for this week I got nothing yet but and early lean is teasing Houston and the Over 7 pts for that thursday night game. Houston getting 8.5 looks pretty tasty by itself though.

    Another one that looks really tasty is The Rams against the Cards but we'll see about that. The Rams played the Falcons pretty close and if Bradford didnt throw a costly pick in the endzone they may have beaten the falcons. What do you think of the monday nighter this week Pats vs Jets?

  11. #11
    trevor123698
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    As soon as I turned that OSU game on I knew for a fact the Under was gonna hit and then it was pretty obvious after a few minutes they were gonna cover.

  12. #12
    F42294
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    Good night for us, wish I would of took the parlay with you Trevor, good move. I had a small little bet on the Celtics too that paid off but I didn't make it an official play due to a new thread I'm following on plays based on who the REF crew is on any given night. I think there is something to that thread but its gotta be worked out and maybe a little better data analysis. I'm thinking there is another good ACC/Big 10 play for Tuesday I'll be looking to see if there really is anything there, Duke is REALLY that good this year.

    As for the Thursday night Houston/Philly game I'm not too sure. Back in the day I would have looked and looked and took something just for the action, but I like to think I'm older and wiser now and I'm not seeing a good play here on either team. The Houston pass defense is awful and Vick has proven he can be a pocket type QB. Houston has a good running game and a decent pass game and will hang points on an average Phil defense as well. As far as trends there is nothing standing out, both are losers ATS and when you break it down to home/away, against winning teams/losing teams, etc.... nothing stands out. If I was going to take anything on this game I would take the over. Both teams are able to score and both defenses give up points. Weather could be a factor in Phil so if you plan on taking the over I would check the weather report before commiting. The biggest factor in points scored is WIND, if its gonna be windy be careful on any OVER play. Rain, snow, cold without wind usually isn't as big a factor in scoring as WIND. I know TEASERS look good when you get an extra 7 points on your picks but I've never had much success with them and I feel that you give up too much in odds to justify playing them, but thats just me.

    The Rams seem to actually be a good team this year. They are one of the surprising teams of the year and they play in an awful division. Arizona proved against a terrible San Francisco team that they are one of the worst teams in football this year. Rams can score and Arizona can't stop anyone and they can't run or pass effectively. I am for sure going to do further research on these teams to possibly make a play and if I do that play will be on the Rams, good eye on that one.

    To me the Pats v Jets game is flip a coin in the air will be as good as any analysis anyone can do in predicting this game. This is a huge game for both teams, both teams will be motivated and anything can happen. I can give you solid reasons to take either team and you will be convinced its the right play right up until the final score and then we'll be complaining about some bad call a ref made that cost us a payday. I'm going to enjoy watching this game and I have a personal interest in seeing the Jets lose so I can rag on a friend of mine but no play for me on this one either way.

  13. #13
    F42294
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    Ok, 3-0 to start my thread so I'm pretty stoked. I think I have a NCAA BB play for Wednesday but its not an ACC/Big Ten Challenge play like I thought. I do like Duke today but the line is too high, I always think back to a game years ago when I took Duke in a 1st round tourney game with a 30 point spread. Duke was up over 30 points at half time and I hit the bar buying rounds counting my money. Well turns out Duke stopped playing in the 2nd half and only won by about 20 points. I think they pulled a couple of fans out of the stands to finish the game. Next time I thought, hey I learned my lesson, take Duke 1st half only, they'll cover easy and I won't have to worry about how they finish the game. Needless to say Duke came out flat didn't cover the 1st half spread and then blew them away in the 2nd half for an easy cover. Anyway I don't think thats going to be the case today, but I just don't feel good giving up 11.5 points.

    Check back around noon for my NCAA BB pick if I still like it after I see lines and movement. It is a CHALK pick but the line is moving the wrong way right now which could make it an even easier play.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  14. #14
    F42294
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    I was looking at Florida -3 (buy the .5pt) over Central Florida as an official pick but there is a nagging thought in the back of my head that I can't quite grasp that is telling me no. Florida is 10-0 all time vs a 2nd tier Central Florida team. Central Florida is off to a hot 5-0 start and lead by Marcus Jordan (yes the son of that Jordan) but their current marque win is over a good but not great South Florida team and that was 1 of only 2 games that have had a betting line meaning they haven't played anybody else of note. They play an up-tempo run and gun style of play and are averaging over 85 pts per game. South Florida is coached by, former assisant to Florida's Billy Donovan, Donnie Jones. The Florida Gators are currently ranked number 18 and have already been tested by top tier programs Florida State and Ohio State going 1-1 in those matchups both SU and ATS. Florida is currently only 1-4 ATS this year in part I think resulting in the small -3.5 line vs Central Florida and a seemingly good value. Billy Donovan is 5-1 against former assistants losing only to a John Pelphrey coached Arkansas team. The public is all over Florida in this game but the line has gone down which is always a warning sign to me meaning the big money is going against Florida. I so want to make Florida -3 (buy the .5 pt) an official pick but I just can't pull the trigger. Looks like no picks for me today.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  15. #15
    F42294
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    That almost feels like a win and sometimes NO PLAYS are as good as wins because they help preserve your bankroll.

    Might have an in-game play on the Duke and or Maryland games later.

  16. #16
    hoku808pc
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    Good strart bro... And good analysis...

    Ill be checking in daily to see what you playing...

  17. #17
    F42294
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    Quote Originally Posted by fuggles View Post
    3-0 start for you.

    Keep posting your well thought out and, so far, dead on picks.
    Quote Originally Posted by hoku808pc View Post
    Good strart bro... And good analysis...

    Ill be checking in daily to see what you playing...
    Thank you for your support. Hopefully we can keep winning. Like I said I won't always have a pick but when I do I like to make sure its a strong winner. Obviously I won't be 100% but hopefully as close as possible.

    Looking at a strong NBA pick for Thursday. Not sure about the NFL game but I am still considering the over.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  18. #18
    F42294
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    I thought I liked the Suns in the NBA but I don't, I thought I liked the over in that game but then I thought I liked the under so I don't like either. I like the over in Eagles/Texans but not enough to recommend it to you. Then I looked at an in-state conference rivalry that will be taking place in Arizona tonight. ASU/Arizona. This is always a battle between two teams that hate each other and know each other very well. Arizona got off to a fast 7-1 start but have fallen back to earth getting routed by Stanford, losing to a not so good USC team and getting blown out in the 2nd half against Oregon. ASU has not been a good team this season and also are not bowl eligable without a waiver from the NCAA. These teams always play each other tight and a 3pt win by either team is expected. ASU lost their starting QB last week but backup Brock Osweiler stepped in and lead the team to a 55-34 win completing 27-36 passes for 380 yards. Arizona is horrible against the run and even though ASU plays a high flying spread offense expect to see them try and take advantage of Arizona's weak run defense to help give Brock a little protection. Neither team needs motivation for this game as the Territorial Cup is very important to both teams. That being said Arizona's bowl bid is locked up and a win against this ASU team will not improve their position. ASU is not bowl eligable but with a win tonight they could petittion the NCAA for a waiver and get into a low tier bowl, without a win they have no chance. The only reason they have a chance for a bowl waiver with a win tonight is that they are able to keep games close in losses. The were within 1 of a USC team that handled Arizona easily and they finished within 3 to an amazing Stanford team. I expect Sophmore QB Osweiler to be motivated to not only win this game but to put himself into position to be the starter next season. Both teams will score and it will most likely come down to the last team that scores wins. That being said a 5.5 pt spread in a game I expect to be won by either team by 5 or less pts is too nice to pass up. You know I love to buy the .5 point to give me the chance for a push so my pick tonight is ASU +6 (buy the .5 pt) over Arizona. ASU +6 (buy the .5pt) over Arizona.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  19. #19
    F42294
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    Sorry guys, I hope not but it looks like that blocked extra point could have cost us the game.

  20. #20
    F42294
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    Quote Originally Posted by F42294 View Post
    Sorry guys, I hope not but it looks like that blocked extra point could have cost us the game.
    Whew! Pulled it out, a missed extra point almost cost us the game and then another blocked extra point in the 2nd OT to win it.

    Game went pretty much as we thought just never amazes me how one or two turns of the football makes the difference between a cover or a loss.

    4-0 start, not bad.

  21. #21
    F42294
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    I feel we have a strong NCAA FB play tonight. #25 N Illinois takes on Miami Ohio for the MAC Championship at Ford Field in Detroit. The Huskies (N Illinois) dominated in their conference games this year thanks in large part to the #7 ranked rushing offense in the NCAA at 279 yards per game. Another factor in their dominating performance this year is their stingy defense which is giving up only 18.5pts per game in conference with 16 interceptions on the year. Between their defense and rushing attacked they are scoring over 39 pts per game which is 10th in the NCAA. By comparison Miami Ohio is ranked 114th in rushing at under 100 yards per game and ranked 108th in points scored at just over 20. The big key here is their rushing rank since Miami Ohio is without starting QB Zac Dysert but they need to throw the ball to win games. Backup QB Austin Boucher has been a servicable backup in the last two games for Miami Ohio but he hasn't faced a defense as good as the Huskies. Miami Ohio wins games with defense, however they won't be able to hold up the entire game against the pounding they will get from the rushing attack of the Huskies. Should the Huskies need to throw the ball they can depend on QB Harnish who although he doesn't pass much is the #18th most effective QB in the NCAA this year and he can run too. Miami Ohio is coming of a 1-11 season last year and most of their players are just happy to be in the conference championship game, they aren't hungry enough to make a difference in the game because they already exceeded their goals. Maybe they can keep it close in the 1st half, but their spirit is broken by the relentless pounding of the Huskies and in the 2nd half their heart goes out of the game as they just go through the motions in the 4th qtr. Expect an easy cover even at 17.5pts as the Huskies win by 20-30 pts. However you know I buy the pts, so the play is Northern Illinois -17 (buy the .5 pt) over Miami Ohio. Northern Illinois -17 (buy the .5 pt) over Miami Ohio.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on tonight.

  22. #22
    hoku808pc
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    Alright bro....

    Glad to see we're on the same side...

    Lets do it!!

  23. #23
    linewiz
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    Hey F42294....excellent thread. Solid write-ups and picks. Keep up the good work.

  24. #24
    F42294
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    Did Northern Illinois over look this Miami Ohio team like I obviously did? Guess I should have look at their coaching staff too. Northern Illinois doesn't look like they prepared for this game.

  25. #25
    linewiz
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    Quote Originally Posted by F42294 View Post
    Did Northern Illinois over look this Miami Ohio team like I obviously did? Guess I should have look at their coaching staff too. Northern Illinois doesn't look like they prepared for this game.
    Long way to go. You believed in the pick. Let it play out.

  26. #26
    F42294
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    Quote Originally Posted by linewiz View Post
    Long way to go. You believed in the pick. Let it play out.
    You're right, I expected them to pull away in the 2nd half anyway, just curious they aren't using the running game more, going away from their strength.

    Plus I saw Therber picked the other way and I have a lot of respect for his picks.

    Come on Huskies lets get rolling!!!

    lol

  27. #27
    linewiz
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    Quote Originally Posted by F42294 View Post
    You're right, I expected them to pull away in the 2nd half anyway, just curious they aren't using the running game more, going away from their strength.

    Plus I saw Therber picked the other way and I have a lot of respect for his picks.

    Come on Huskies lets get rolling!!!

    lol
    Hey man. Don't get discouraged. Alot of people went down with NI. Your write-ups and reasoning have been strong on all of your plays. Looking forward to seeing what you have this weekend.

  28. #28
    F42294
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    Ok 4-1 not terrible. Lets get it back rolling again. Should be lots of nice games today.

  29. #29
    F42294
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    Sorry I didn't get any picks out for Saturday...slept late missed the early games and then was running all day. Did get in on VTech over Florida State thanks to Therber (what an amazing year for Therbers picks). And I did get on Duke in the 2nd half and the over in the 2nd half of Oregon/Oregon State game. Didn't have time to write up either one and I'm not comfortable making half-time picks OFFICIAL PICKS anyway. Hope everyone had a profitable Saturday and hope everyone will have a profitable Sunday.

    As for Sunday I don't think I'm gonna be able to write up anything for the games. I am gonna roll with Therbers picks and I have a good feeling about Buffalo over Minnesotta. I like Buffalo SU in this game but I'm gonna cover my action by taking the 5pts. The only thing that scares me about this team is Buffalo hasn't proven they know how to be winners. I hope they aren't stuck in that bridesmaid mentality and finally learn how to put another team away. Winning in the NFL has a lot to do with attitude and mindset, winning leads to winning and losing leads to losing. Buffalo hasn't proven they have a winning mindset but I think maybe they are ready to turn that corner.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  30. #30
    Poppa Catfish
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    I also have a good feeling about Buffalo

    Best of luck to you

  31. #31
    trevor123698
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    Keep the picks coming. I didnt take your Buffalo pick but I wish I had taken Minnesota. Their Defense is underrated again.

    I'll post a pick I like this week. If the Pats and the under hits tonight i win big but If its jets and over I win big somehow. Jets ML and under absolutely screws me

  32. #32
    F42294
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    Quote Originally Posted by trevor123698 View Post
    Keep the picks coming. I didnt take your Buffalo pick but I wish I had taken Minnesota. Their Defense is underrated again. I'll post a pick I like this week. If the Pats and the under hits tonight i win big but If its jets and over I win big somehow. Jets ML and under absolutely screws me
    Pats and over, hoepfully you won just not the big win you were hoping for. I was actually all over NE tonight but it was a feeling and not a write-up logical pick. Logically I couldn't justify taking either team, but with Leonard out and Brady hot I had a feeling NE. I screwed myself and brought the extra half point so I didn't win as much but it made up for my loss on Buffalo.

    Looking a games for tomorrow now, hopefully have something I can recommend.

  33. #33
    F42294
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    Ok next pick is ready and I like this one.

    Baltimore vs Houston promises to be a high flying shoot out of passing proportions. Ravens still maintain a stingy defense though it isn't what is has been in recent years. The big hole in the Ravens defense is the big pass play. Take your shots beyond 15 yards and the Ravens defense can be had. Once you get past the front four and the linebackers the secondary doesn't always hold up to the greatness that is Baltimore Defense. The Texans are an extremely efficient passing team, ranked 9th in the NFL and have some good weapons to get beyond that 15 yard range that can torch the Ravens. The only problem will be if the Texans get into the red zone and specifically beyond the 15 yard line they may have to settle for field goals as the Ravens can tighten up without the deep threat to protect against. So the key for the Titans tonight is scoring TDs from 20+ yards out and not having to battle in the red zone where they will be forced to settle for field goals. The Ravens should not have any trouble scoring on a Houston defense that is ranked 32nd against the pass. Joe Flacco should put up impressive numbers tonight and throw for 3 touchdowns with the running game adding a touchdown on the ground. A field goal for good measure by the Ravens and the Texans will only have to score 16 pts for this game to go over. Expect the Texans to find 17-28 pts making for an easy over for the night. Play Baltimore/Houston over 46.

    GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

  34. #34
    firehoyt
    Are you serious, Clark?
    firehoyt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-02-10
    Posts: 3,569
    Betpoints: 31

    I hope youre right. Before I found this thread I decided to put alot on the over. I know this "large bet" is against the "rules of profiting while betting", but I got bored with 1-3 unit bets. Just wanted a little excitement. I hope neither defense shows up tonight. LOL GL to us both!

  35. #35
    F42294
    F42294's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-10
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    Quote Originally Posted by firehoyt View Post
    I hope youre right. Before I found this thread I decided to put alot on the over. I know this "large bet" is against the "rules of profiting while betting", but I got bored with 1-3 unit bets. Just wanted a little excitement. I hope neither defense shows up tonight. LOL GL to us both!
    I hope you have excitement right up until the middle of the 3rd qtr when the over covers and then you can just watch the rest of the game while you figure out what to do with your winnings.

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