New to the forum, starting a hopefully long running thread of my picks.
Mainly NFL picks but will occassionally stray into NBA, College FB & BB and some exotics. Don't look for NHL or any kind of soccer ever but I have been known to jump on a tennis matchup if something looks strange.
Turkey Day Picks
New England is still one of the best teams in the NFL even if they have been a little under your radar to start the year. Yes they are on the road on a short week but they also have one of the most creative and experienced coaches in the NFL and run a system that has been in place for a long time. Their system is such that they don't spend as much timing preparing for an individual team as they do playing their own game. Detroit is a bad team in the weaker NFC but they have been an ATS machine this year going 7-2 in all games and 4-1 as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 pts. Both of Detroits wins have also come at home which is where they will be hosting NE Thursday. So your initial thought is NE will kill Detroit, but then you look at the trends and you think, oh no Detroit will lose but by 6 or less. So which one is it? In this case go with your initial thoughts, everyone knows these trends and they are figured into the line. This line should be 10-12 pts, not 7!!! It opened at 7 and should have shot up to 9 almost instantly but the ATS trends of both Detroit and NE are keeping it at 7 which provides a great value for a smart player. Look for New England to get up early and put it in cruise control. Detroit will exploit NE's weakness in pass defense to stage a late comeback in the 2nd half and will get within 2 scores but NE should be able to milk the clock and play just enough defense to cover the 7 pts. Expect to sweat out a 10 point win but a payday none the less. PICK New England -7 over Detroit.
I liked another pick a lot on Thursday but the Carson Palmer injury is keeping me from recommending it. I still like the pick but I would have loved it if Palmer was 100%. The New Jets have only 1 win against a team with a winning record this year and they seem to win their games with heroics in the 4th qtr. even against bad teams. Cincinnati is a bad team again this year (Marvin Lewis next head coach to be fired??? I think he makes it to the end of the year but isn't back next year) but they have a lot of talent at the skills positions. Even on this bad team, TO is the #3 reciever in yardage and still has the ability to break games open and Cedrick Benson is in the top half of running backs behind a OL that needs major help. Jets are the far superior team and will be at home on a short week but they will overlook Cincinnati and instead will be focused on their week 13 game at NE on MNF. The play here with a healthy Carson Palmer would have been Cincinnati +9 as the Jets win but do it with a drive in the final 2 minutes and win by 7pts or less. I may still take this play myself after the Pre-Game injury report but it won't be an official pick for me on this forum.
Sunday Games
So far I only like one game this Sunday (Week 12) but it is a SU +130 underdog play. San Diego is showing a penchent for slow starts and FIRE finishes the past couple of years and this year appears to be no exception. Their destruction of Denver on MNF in Week 11 announced the start of their FIRE SEASON. The Colts are down to one player....Payton Manning. Almost a football god on the gridiron Payton is one of the best players to ever play the game and some games he is able to play 1 on 11 and come out on top, however against this San Diego team at this time of year Payton won't be able to do it himself. While the Jets will be pulling out a victory over Cincinnatti with a last minute drive Payton's Colts won't be close enough at the end of the game to even have a final 2 minute drive. Look for a good 1st drive from the Colts but then San Diego takes over and own's the rest of the game. San Diego is getting 3pts but ignore the points as the Bolts win outright. PICK San Diego SU +130 over Indianapolis.
GL to all which ever plays you make and have a SAFE and happy holiday.