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C-Gold's walk through of the week 10 card
It's Friday night and I'm here with my laptop giving you degenerates my thoughts on the NFL card. I'm not going out and getting drunk and chasing skirts because I just got back from a long vacation and don't want to spend more money and want to finally get some sleep tonight.
Week 10
Home Dogs
Denver +1
Chicago +1
Miami +2
Cleveland +3
Washington +3
West Coast team traveling East for a 1 PM start
None although Dallas & Houston are traveling East
Special situations
New Coach for Dallas... good riddance Wade, so is it Brad Childres, Mike Singeltary or Marvin Lewis next?
Pennington relieving Henne at QB for Miami
Dog that won outright that is favored the following week
Jacksonville was a dog, beat dallas, but did have a Bye and is now laying a point vs Houston
Jeff Saragin ratings gap
Detroit 8.2
Tampa 7.38
St. Louis 6.83
Chicago 4.15
Cleveland 2.22
Indy 1.97
Leans... Please tell me why I'm wrong so that I can get the right ones right, and fix the wrong ones. If you convince me to change my pick from logic... I'll give you betpoints and make it worth your while.
Minnesota -1
So I told you I just came back from vacation and was in a city with no NFL team. There were a lot of drunken bears fans at the bar and they HATE cutler and wanted to bust out the Rex Grossman jerseys. They had Jay Cutler as the Dox Equis most interesting man in the world.... " I don't throw interceptions, but when I do, I throw them in the Red Zone.
Seriously, the Bears defense is quietly doing very well. Peppers is a beast when he's motivated ( and he is), but the Bears offense is doo doo. You especially want to go against their offense when they are facing a strong pass rush. I love deeper routes for the WR's as much as the next guy but you have to be able to protect your QB to run those deeper routes and the Bears O-Line can't do that. Look at the Vikings front 4 and Jared Allen and it doesn't take a creative person to picture the sacks and turnovers... Think Giants game or Seattle game all over again where the Bears D played well, but the offense was so bad they single handidly lost the game.
My hunch says the Vikings pull this off, with Sidney Rice coming back and don't underrate that. Look at even the 1st Vikings game of the year where it was Favre going to Shancoe over and over again because the WR Corps was so weak. Now he has some more weapons... Favre having another week under his belt... the team with their backs to the wall knowing they MUST win this game... I think the Vikings pull it out and live to die another day. They have a better shot at going to the playoffs and doing something than Mike Martz and that Bears offense that will get killed against a strong pass rush. It's just not going to happen with that personel and it's a shame to waste that underated defense.
Indy -7
The Colts are so injured it's not even funny, but Manning makes it work. He has such an excuse to quit and lose but he's the best player of this generation. I don't know how he'll make it work but he will. It could be those tight ends you've never heard of, or Blair White from the practice squad, or he could be using Mike Hart, the worst player in the NFL but he'll make it work. Those tight ends etc. will find the open space and catch the ball and win. The Bengals LB core is hurt, the team is going nowhere and they seriously need to think about firing Marvin Lewis. This team will NEVER WIN in the playoffs with him and Carson Palmer is actually regressing. Could have something to do with 2 distracting clowns at WR that both want the ball every play.
The Colts defense is MUCH better at home with Freeney and Mathis rushing around the edges. Look at what they did to the Giants. It's going to make Palmers day much harder and he's actually not his normal self, he has regressed. I predicted the Bengals to fall this year and you're witnessing it with your own eyes.
If you convert a -7 spread to a ML or winning pct, it says the Colts have about a 75% chance of winning this game, and I think it's a higher chance of winning the game and that they do win by more than 1 possession, especially coming off of a loss and at home. I like playing good teams after a Loss and like betting on Peyton Manning.
Tampa -7
Tampa is overrated but everybody already knows that. So what. They are like that overachieving Bears team that was 13-3 winning on last second Mike Brown defensive touchdowns, overated, made the playoffs and then got their ass whooped back down to earth. Tampa isn't going 13-3 but they could beat the Panthers by more than 7.
Jeff Saragin has Carolina rated as the worst team in the NFL
He says the true spread should be Bucs -14, which is a 7 point difference, 2nd biggest this week
Tampa already beat Carolina 20-7 earlier this year.
But that's not all, Carolina is starting Jimmy Claussen... on the road. Do I have to repeat that, are you kidding me, Jimmy Claussen on the road?
The Bucs Run D sucks but how is Carolina going to exploit it with Deangelo Williams out, Jonathan Stewart out and Jonathan Ogden still out. I mean I think the position of RB is overrated, it's largely fungible, performance is based largely on the line and offensive system... to a point. A true stud RB has value... the Adrian Petersons, Chris Johnsons aren't fungible, they add something. I think Deangelo williams moves/explosion is up there and not replaced as well. You can't throw a Teshard Choice type guy in there and get the same, you just can't.
Tampa beat Carolina by 13 last time, and they are facing a weaker Carolina team at home, Saragin says the line should be Tampa -14, I say lay the 7 points for the overrated Bucs team... It's just their year... They are similar to that 13-3 Bears team winning games and living the dream to die another day.
KC -1
Saragin ratings say KC should be favored by 3.92 more than the 1 point spread, but then again Denver is coming off a bye, and the Denver homefield advantage is probably worth more than 3 points... That air is thick and the homefield is real, maybe the best in all of professional sports. So I do think the line is fair.
But I like how KC matches up. I watched the KC game vs Indy and thought they were well coached with Romeo on Defense, Weis and Haley. The defense pressured Manning and kept him in check. The Broncos offense run by Mcdaniels is arrogant. He tries to emulate the 2007 Patriots offense minus the deep balls to Randy Moss.... No running game, lots of short/intermediate plays but with a little bit more on the manufactored side of things as opposed to read and react. KC should do a good enough job at slowing them down...
On offense, KC is tops at running the ball and Denver sucks at stopping the run. I just see the Chiefs coaching staff breaking down film and finding holes for the speedy Charles to run through. Denver is clearly the worst team in the divsion in my opinion and KC is the best coached team in the divsion and just might win the west.
Buffalo -3 ( Fools gold sucker bet special)
This is a sucker bet if I've ever saw one. Detroit may be 2-6, but they are better than their record and covering spreads at a fantastic rate. People know this. So you looked at the line and thought you read it wrong right? It's supposed to be Detroit -3 not Detroit +3 right? Play Detroit because at worst they will lose a FG type game right? Buffalo's defense sucks right? They are destined for the #1 pick in the draft right?
Buffalo has had a spark from Fitzpatrick and he has impressed me a lot. He nearly beat the Ravens by himself a few weeks ago. He was putting the ball where it needed to go but his receivers not named Evans were dropping balls and not running the right routes and he wasn't getting particularly good blocking. He was smart, quick and his effort @ Baltimore with the Bills personal was easily much more impressive than Matty Ice's effort with Roddy White, Turner the Burner and the homefield Refs in Atlanta last night.
Buffalo has lost some close ones and is fighting, they break the trend and win this sunday. Vegas set this line because they know the Bills have a >70% chance of winning this game by more than 3.
Why?
- Fitzpatrick is playing very well, even if he is surrounded by trash. He deserves to be a starter in the NFL. He's not a game manager and played well enough to "win games" for his team. Boggles my mind how he could throw for 300 as a rookie with the Rams, throw for 300 when he's a starter, play hard on bad teams, and yet NFL teams keep bringing in guys like Jason Campbell who have been given every opportunity, and he has maybe 5 300 yard passing games in 6 or so years as a starter and a fat losing record.
- Detroit has been switching QB's week to week, that's not good for practice, timing, game planning.
- Detroit is a dome team going out on the road to Buffalo in an interconference game
- Detroits RB's and speed RB are banged up, which won't be able to explot Buffalo's D as much.
If you don't think these things matter you need to realize it. Teams and their scouts know their division best, then their conference, then the other conference. Do you think the scouts/coaching staff in Detroit know a lot about Buffalo and vice versa? They know a hell of a lot more about the teams in their divsion and scouting and game planning matter. So going on the road, dome team in an inter conference game vs a hard fighting Buffalo team with a stupid point spread and I know the Bill swill pull this one out.
Just don't cry Fix when the Lions blow this game.
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Originally Posted by C-Gold
give me tampa v giants and watch the giants crush them :P but against the panthers that 20-7 game was their biggest win of the season, and was against a much better carolina team than is out there this sunday. Tampa knows what works against the panthers and with injuries all over the place i think tampa will be looking to exploit even more weak spots. I know why some people on these forums like the panthers to cover, tampa has had afew close games but i don't know where carolina can get any points from i seriously don't know 
