1. #1
    Justin7
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    Week 14 Arena

    My best bet is SJ/LAA UND115.5.

    Base on raw stats for the whole season, this number was a bit high - I made the total 111. There are several other factors that will push this down. First, teams are adapting to the increased flexibility of the Jack Linebacker. For the first few weeks, defenses were scoring 5.5 points per game. This has come down substantially - closer to 3/game for the last 4 weeks - you are seeing fewer defensive TDs on passes near the line of scrimmage.

    A second thing I expect to lower the scoring is LAA's QB. They have been flip-flopping between Hicks and Cumbie. Between the two, Hicks is better. If they use both, it drops the total two points. If the use just Cumbie, it lowers the game total 4 points.

    Third, LAA has hired a new offensive line and FB coach. I expect new blocking schemes and/or personnel. With this, I anticipate more problems the first week it is implemented.

    This line is off - it should be about 104, so I'll call this a best bet on the Under down to 112.

  2. #2
    Justin7
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    And the rest of the card - all sides on road teams.
    SJ-7
    Utah+3
    KC+16

  3. #3
    SlickFazzer
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    Good stuff, thanks.

  4. #4
    bigboydan
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    I've been sitting on the sidelines in the AFL for a while now, however your tempting me to jump back in Justin.

    Best of luck to you on your plays

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  5. #5
    pico
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  6. #6
    oakas
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    This line is dropping fast boys.
    Opened up at 117 yesterday and now is 114 at most places.
    There are a few books that have it at 115'.

    Good luck.

  7. #7
    frostno98
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    KC +16 looks good

  8. #8
    pico
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    my 7pm pick:

    STRAIGHT BET
    GEORGIA FORCE -3-110

    different books has different spreads...i can see georgia win by 4 or 7

  9. #9
    Justin7
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    pico,

    3.5 is a great number. Where do you see that?

  10. #10
    pico
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    ****. georgia won by 1 pt. 1 fg from covering...oh well...win some lose some.

  11. #11
    tomcowley
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    So did I misread something, or could they have just taken a knee and run out the clock that play instead of scoring to hit 115 (and then 122)? I showed 0:27 left, 3rd down, LA with no timeouts.

  12. #12
    diogee
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    Wow that is a bad beat on your best bet...unreal final minute.
    Congrats going 2-0 on the others so far.

  13. #13
    pico
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    san jose games looks great until the 50 pts 4th q. oh well, at least they covered -9.5...1-1...pushed for me.

    KC is a winner

    2-2 for me today.

    5/5 away teams covered the spread today.

  14. #14
    Justin7
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    You must advance the ball, or the clock stops.

    Those 2 meaningless TDs in the last 25 seconds of that game cost were about a 20k swing in the red for me, so I'm a bit bitter.

  15. #15
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    You must advance the ball, or the clock stops.

    Those 2 meaningless TDs in the last 25 seconds of that game cost were about a 20k swing in the red for me, so I'm a bit bitter.
    now i know why everytime you post a pick, the line moves at least a point.

    i am just glad i did not parlay sj -9.5 with the under. that last 2 tds cost me 1k.

  16. #16
    Justin7
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    I had a lot of parlays that included SJ-7 with under 115.5, as well as straight bets. That pathetic end of the game turned a monster weekend into close to break-even. Now it's all about Utah.

  17. #17
    oakas
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    You must advance the ball, or the clock stops.

    Those 2 meaningless TDs in the last 25 seconds of that game cost were about a 20k swing in the red for me, so I'm a bit bitter.
    I watched this game and I am so fvcking pissed off right now I can't even see straight. Unfvckingbelieveable.

  18. #18
    tomcowley
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    Ah, not quite as bad a beat for me then on 114/114.5 if they had to run a forward play. Losing anything over 115 to that crap is just unreal. I'm glad I won almost everything else today.

  19. #19
    Iwinyourmoney
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    I just read the play by play for the 4th Q.......

    Someone was in on a fix

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  20. #20
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwinyourmoney View Post
    I just read the play by play for the 4th Q.......

    Someone was in on a fix
    are you going to say the same thing about celtics game 6 2nd half over? 37 pts 3rd q...65 pts 4th q.

  21. #21
    Iwinyourmoney
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    Its more obv in this AFL then in Boston game.

    Pistons were freaking out and shooting, and boston was too. Simple enough

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  22. #22
    13th Street
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    That UNDER should have hit.
    I lost too. I thought they could just run the clock-out.
    Very frustrating!

  23. #23
    Justin7
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    I finished 3-1 this week, but lost my best bet.

    Dang, I hate losing!

  24. #24
    frostno98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    You must advance the ball, or the clock stops.

    Those 2 meaningless TDs in the last 25 seconds of that game cost were about a 20k swing in the red for me, so I'm a bit bitter.
    Damn tough beating dude, you can make 20k on arena?

  25. #25
    pico
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    one more game on monday night. if arena is anything like betting aussie football, i should probably let it pass. take the winning and move on to next week.

    thanks to justin, i made a little off arena this week. only if gerogia scored another fg and san jose let the clock run out, i'd finish perfect. oh well. on to next week.

  26. #26
    13th Street
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    NY vs COL

    OVER 103

    Small play on Monday Night AFL.

    GL

  27. #27
    pico
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    go dragons!!!!

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