1. #1
    Justin7
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    Week 12 Arena...

    I haven't forgotten it... I don't have a play on tonight's game, and I need the liquidity to go up on some of the other games. There might not be a "best bet" though... It has to be a 57% play

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    No worries Justin... If you don't like it, by all mean don't play it.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005


  3. #3
    Justin7
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    I have plenty of games I like... just not enough to list it as my "Free ATM withdrawal play of the week" yet.

  4. #4
    topcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I have plenty of games I like... just not enough to list it as my "Free ATM withdrawal play of the week" yet.
    i betted the over in .cleveland [116]at 5dimes.iam looking at the team total dallas,its been awhile for clint to be a to run the score up.i dont know if these games will win,i just thought i could help.seems like me,and you are the only people that bet are na,seriously.good luck on your plays.

  5. #5
    Justin7
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    I played Utah at +11... It should be about +7.5 or so - 11 is too high.

    It always makes me mad when it opens at +13, but I can't bet it early in the week until he liquidity goes up.

  6. #6
    HedgeHog
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    Most of my numbers were close to the lines as well, except for one. My Best Best is tomorrow on KC +8.5 (Bookmaker). I only have Orlando by 2 in this one.

  7. #7
    Justin7
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    My best bet for this week Kansas City +8 versus Orlando

    At 2-8, no one is giving KC any chance versus 7-4 Orlando. The line opened at Orlando-7.5, and has crept up to -8 and -8.5. When the line moves, that is usually a sign of sharp money pressing it.

    In this game, the market is wrong. If you used season-long stats, you'd expect this line to be about KC+5. Despite their poor record, they have lost most of their games by 8 or less.

    But there's more! Orlando lost their #2 receiver - Gessner. He'll likely be playing for the Seattle Seahawks next year.

    Here's another odd thing about Arena football. The injury reports do NOT include players are injured reserve. Look at Orlando's defensive stats here: http://www.arenafootball.com/afl/sta...&Q_SEASON=2008

    Nick Allison has a lot of tackles - he's a very active linebacker

    The weekly injury report is here:
    http://www.arenafootball.com/ViewArt...RIBER_CONTENT=

    Nick Allison isn't listed anywhere as injured.

    Now, go to the team roster here:
    http://www.orlandopredators.com/Spor...00&SPSID=21530

    Where did Nick go? He's gone - on IR.

    Orlando's defense is minus a starting LB, and its offense is minus its #2 receiver. Another DB is questionable - Jason Perry. He left the game early this week. I have good information he will NOT play.

    I was very surprised that the market moved from 7.5 to 8 and 8.5. I didn't want to give this out until I was sure that Perry wasn't playing. In this case, the fair line should be about KC+1, and the market and sharp action is simply wrong.

    My best bet this week is Kansas City +8 versus Orlando.

  8. #8
    durito
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    Why will pinnacle take a $5,000 bet on an opening night WNBA total, but their limit on AFL sides tomorrow is still only $500?

  9. #9
    Justin7
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    It's easier to get info about WNBA than Arena.... Sadly, WNBA is a bigger market.

  10. #10
    durito
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    Seems a bit counterintuitive, though it must be true. I only looked around at arena for a few hours once, but I couldn't find much data. Gonna give it another spin this off season. Whereas I had no problem building a wnba database and getting info.

    The one thing that scares me about wnba is this sport has no fans, so it must be sharps betting it.

  11. #11
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I played Utah at +11... It should be about +7.5 or so - 11 is too high.

    It always makes me mad when it opens at +13, but I can't bet it early in the week until he liquidity goes up.
    another close winner. the closing line is utah +10. i had to buy that extra 1/2 pt to get the close win this time.

  12. #12
    bigboydan
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    Looks like you did find a gem after all Justin.

    Congrats

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  13. #13
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post

    My best bet this week is Kansas City +8 versus Orlando.
    nicely done again. kc lost by 7. another close win i have a suspecion you're setting the lines for the books

  14. #14
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by picoman View Post
    nicely done again. kc lost by 7. another close win i have a suspecion you're setting the lines for the books
    I don't set them anymore... unless you count banging them into shape with bets.

    Best bets now 8-2 on the year

  15. #15
    oakas
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I don't set them anymore... unless you count banging them into shape with bets.

    Best bets now 8-2 on the year
    Keep up the great work, Justin.

  16. #16
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I don't set them anymore... unless you count banging them into shape with bets.

    Best bets now 8-2 on the year
    if i can get better closing spreads than you in AFL, i am marking those bets down as winners. from now on, whenever i see "game of the week", i know the score will be right at the spread, and someone (not me) is making a killing off middling.

    that is pretty impressive how your best bets are right on the spread...way more impressive than blowouts.

  17. #17
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by picoman View Post
    if i can get better closing spreads than you in AFL, i am marking those bets down as winners. from now on, whenever i see "game of the week", i know the score will be right at the spread, and someone (not me) is making a killing off middling.
    There have been a lot of games near the line, but don't count on that going forward. The volatility in arena scores is HUGE. On average, there are about 1.5 defensive/special teams TDs per game. Someone is will often get screwed by bad luck.

  18. #18
    Justin7
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    Monday night game... I'm on LAA. I got them at +16. I'd play it down to +14.5. Fair line is about +9.

  19. #19
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Monday night game... I'm on LAA. I got them at +16. I'd play it down to +14.5. Fair line is about +9.
    i beleive you already sharpen the lines.

  20. #20
    topcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by picoman View Post
    another close winner. the closing line is utah +10. i had to buy that extra 1/2 pt to get the close win this time.
    good job man.

  21. #21
    frostno98
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    Is this sports handicappable? Let me see all the games yesterday went low and all today's went high, whats the trend here?

  22. #22
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by frostno98 View Post
    Is this sports handicappable? Let me see all the games yesterday went low and all today's went high, whats the trend here?
    low->high->low

  23. #23
    topcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by frostno98 View Post
    Is this sports handicappable? Let me see all the games yesterday went low and all today's went high, whats the trend here?
    i won last year,but iam having a hard time this year.i bet mostly overs,and iam having a hard time the last two weeks.the refs have no idea of calling these games.

  24. #24
    topcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by frostno98 View Post
    Is this sports handicappable? Let me see all the games yesterday went low and all today's went high, whats the trend here?
    there is one trend .the home teams love to run up the score.5dimes is the only one that carries team totols.good luck.

  25. #25
    topcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    Seems a bit counterintuitive, though it must be true. I only looked around at arena for a few hours once, but I couldn't find much data. Gonna give it another spin this off season. Whereas I had no problem building a wnba database and getting info.

    The one thing that scares me about wnba is this sport has no fans, so it must be sharps betting it.
    besides the orlando predatos,and the sabercats they are alot of empty seats.

  26. #26
    topcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    Why will pinnacle take a $5,000 bet on an opening night WNBA total, but their limit on AFL sides tomorrow is still only $500?
    i dont know if you remember the rattlers,and sabercats game.the quarter back for the rattlers got hurt,so jeff smoker took over.when the game went halftime,you couldnt find a place that had the line.i was on the losing side.


  27. #27
    pico
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    Quote Originally Posted by topcat View Post
    there is one trend .the home teams love to run up the score.5dimes is the only one that carries team totols.good luck.
    you're dead on about home team running up the score. LA looks pathetic today. chicago won the division. got the under 110

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