[green7]

Good day to all, I have researched my methods for the past 3 years and have had success with this. I will try to avoid the dreaded posting jinx theory, which says your picks automatically start to suck when an individual decides that he should/could post. I have been good in the NFL and MLB, and horrible in the NBA and I'd like to learn how to be good in the NHL, which I think has a lot of parallels to MLB. If I ever place a pick on the NBA here in this forum, it is an automatic fade!

The most important things I consider are, head coaching records, much like people look at starting pitching records in MLB, defenses, and some regression. Almost all of my picks will be away underdogs.

Games this week

1) Philly +3, Philly has been very good on the road with Reid at the helm, and though Fisher has been great as a dog, he is not very good as a favorite.

2) Washington +3, love Shanahan and McNabb, and hate Chicago's offensive line and Cutler covers less than 30% of the time as a home favorite in his career.

3) Vikings +2', I think Minny ends up at 10-6 or so, and Green Bay's injuries are well documented,....teams that can't run the ball don't cover at home much, you'll notice over the years the best throwing teams are very good on the road generally, but not as good at home, unless they have a good running attack too. If you have access to a database, check out how teams do at home if they are outrushed. Forget it, I'll do it for you, home favorite divisional teams cover at a rate of 41% if outrushed, and non-div home favorites (see Chicago above) cover at 43%.

4) Arizona +5', divisional dogs always are premium plays under my method and divisonal dogs have been insanely successful this year. It helps that the public views AZ as not capable. According to SBR only 37% of the public is on AZ and Carroll, Seahawk's coach has not done well in his NFL career after a dog win.

5) Jax +9, another stinky dog, this one is difficult to put your money down on......but sometimes winning in the NFL in counterintuitive.

I will throw out some totals, these I have only looked at for the past two weeks and they were 9-6.....consider them experimental and if you are tailing I'd recommend you play them at 1/3 of what you'd play the sides.

6) Miami OVER 40'

7) NE UNDER 47

8) Titans UNDER 43

9) Bears OVER 40

10) Chiefs UNDER 37'

Good luck.

[ttrace35]

This is ridiculous. I can't believe you wasted your time writing this nonsense. Put your money on a bunch of road dogs. Real smart.

[ttrace35]

Now that these games are played, this thread looks even sooooo much more f-cking stupid.