[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

MY RECORD AFTER 3RD WEEK OF NFL INCLUDING A THURSDAY NIGHTGAME 3-0-1
I bet one game A week, [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games] I never bet spreads over 10, Never a road team, getting 7 more points, Never home steam giving up 7 more points I work off a spread sheet, Weather,injures, Power ratings, Defense and Offence analyzes, Team coaches comparisons My Betting Style>> Press one time on 2nd win,[Iam pressing this week after a win from last week] I will go back to a Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once ???[ I wonder who said that ??//lol] More Bets You Make in any given week of play, like ...Parlays,Over and under's on a game with the a team?? or whatever??with These Bookmakers .. Your percentage to win is cut in half


The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins are not what you would call traditional rivals, but they do have the makings of what could be an intense rivalry over the next few years. While Miami has traditionally been one of the better franchises in the NFL, New England has only recently run into success. The Patriots have become something of a measuring stick for everyone in the AFC East, since they won three Super Bowl championships in four seasons.
The Miami and New England rivalry picked up some steam two seasons ago, when the Patriots threatened to become the second team to finish the year undefeated. Miami had been the only squad to do this, so some bad blood began to brew between the franchises. When New England lost to the Giants in the final game, cheers went up from South Beach, and even more hostility began to grow. As Miami tries to fight its way back to being a perennial playoff team, the Patriots will be their biggest challenge.

It is probably more important for New England to try to figure out how to stop the run than it is for the Fins to actually be successful at it. We all know that the Dolphins are ultimately going to be deploying RB Ricky Williams and RB Ronnie Brown all game long in an effort to keep QB Tom Brady and his Brady Bunch off the field, but that isn’t the only way that they can move the ball. Without stopping the run though, Brady won’t ever touch the field. Remember the Monday Night Football showdown last year in Miami when the Fins nearly held a 2:1 time of possession ratio on the Indianapolis Colts and still lost? If New England ends up in that boat this year, it is in a ton of trouble.The Pats rank 20th in the NFL through three games, averaging allowing 119.0 yards per game on the ground..


Everything about the Patriots defense stinks, and Miami is a team that can rip them wide open.The fact that Belichik and Brady are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games shouldn’t be a big concern in what began as a pick ‘em. But their 1-5 SU record in their past six road games should terrify everyone in New England.


Credit Brady though for moving away from Moss and concentrating more on feeding his new targets.This includes rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez, who has already established himself as a dynamic threat.The Dolphins had major problems stopping Dustin Keller last week, and will have similar issues with Hernandez.


MY KEY POINTS FOR GAME....Brady Has to Use a Short Passing Game to Open Up the Deep Stuff: This is sort of up there with the whole keeping control of the football thing. Brady is one of these quarterbacks that isn’t afraid to use short passes as if they were runs, and he has all of the targets necessary to do just that. WR Wes Welker is Exhibit A in this case, man that has 18 catches, the majority of which are caught within five yards of the line of scrimmage. There really aren’t any running backs that Bill Belichick is going to be comfortable relying on, and with the Dolphins sending blitz after blitz with their 3-4 ‘D’, New England is going to want to try to slow things down. One and three step drops will make the difference and frustrate this Miami defense, as was shown by the New York Jets last week. When things opened up a little bit, New York hit three huge pass plays in the second half that helped propel it to a win. The Pats need to use that exact same strategy to knock off the Fins in Miami..


MY KEY FACTOR FOR THE GAME....Ever since his trade to New England, he's been another Dolphin killer. In six career games against his former team, Wes has 47 catches for 613 yards and two touchdowns. Wow. The Dolphins don't have a guy like Will Allen anymore to defend Welker when he moves into the slot - meaning this could be a matchup nightmare for the Fins.........For the second week in a row, I'm expecting the Dolphins to let Chad Henne throw it early and often. The Dolphins matchup well offensively against this New England defense. And I'm most excited about the mismatch Brandon Marshall is going to create against whichever unlucky corner has to attempt to cover him. Darius Butler? Devin McCourty? Jonathan Wilhite?Doesn't matter to me???...


MY ANALYSIS OF THE GAME & PREDICTION.... Miami Needs To Play as if Its Season Depended On It: And it does. Not only would a loss to the Pats drop Miami to 0-2 at home in divisional play this year, but it would leave a very sour taste in its mouth with back to back losses on primetime football at home going into its bye. After the bye week, the Dolphins have the following… @ Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Cincinnati, @ Baltimore, vs. Tennessee, vs. Chicago… Oh, and that doesn’t include the games in New York and New England in the winter when the temperature is certain to be significantly below freezing. This isn’t a game that Miami can afford to lose if it wants to make the playoffs, and if that sense of urgency isn’t there, the Dolphins are going to be in big trouble.New England's defense is garbage and I don't think Randy Moss is nearly the same guy we saw dominate back in 2007. He has just nine receptions in three games.Yes he caught two touchdowns last week to make his Fantasy owners happy..LOL.LOL ,Why is this team still being favored on the road against quality opponents? Most of the public is betting New England,thinking that the Patriots are a lock since all Brady has to do is win. Miami is for real, and they’ll prove it on Monday Night Football.


This is going to be a good game.Not only do you have a divisional matchup, but you have the Patriots, who played the Buffalo Bills a lot closer than Head Coach Bill Belichick would've preferred, but you have the Dolphins, who already are down one game in the division.The Dolphins allowed the Jets to make too many plays last week while the Patriots didn't prepare adequately for C.J. Spiller.This game is another tough one to call because New England has a better-ranked offense, but their defense is ranked 27th in the league at the moment.Going to take Miami in another great Monday Night Football matchup
Miami Dolphins +1

[cant call it]

nice writeup!

[Snowball]

i am on the Over.

[PeePee]

GL Mr. Thanks again.

[thebestthereis]

pats no defense over in every game so far, miami/jets sunday night over last week. all points to over easy money. take the under. good luck!

[mgcolby]

Decent write up. As a Pats fan I think the play has to be Miami or nothing. NE has been terrible on the road in the 2nd half over its past 9 road games.

A few key points:

1. Brady is 3-5 in Miami, they blew a 1st half lead in Miami last year.
2. The defense is not as bad as the numbers appear, but they have not put 2 good halves of play together yet. I could go into detail if you like.
3. The run defense is a bit misleading, in the base 3-4 NE's run d is very stout and has not been run on, against the Jets in the base 3-4 they allowed 36 yards on 14 carries. Their run woes come in sub packages. I don't expect to see much Nickel and Dime against Miami. Miami doesn't have much in the passing game outside of Marshall, I fully expect NE to go with a big front and play out of the base 3-4 for most of the game.

Bottom line I think you are on the right play, but what keeps me from betting Miami and ultimately making this game a no play for me is that Brady will get his 2nd half road troubles figured out at some point. And I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't during a Monday night road game against a division opponent.

[marcoloco]

i am on the over also

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I like Miami also

[815Sox]

I like Miami

[ukbro00]

Nice Writeup...I think Miami wins this one.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

MGCOLBY>> A VERY NICE AND WELL THOUGHT COMMENT AND REPLY OF MY POST. WISH YOU THE BEST LUCK IN YOUR 4TH WEEK OF PICKS IN NFL SEASON

[hitman2010]

Great job writing, but I like the Over and let's the game a side.

[mgcolby]

MGCOLBY>> A VERY NICE AND WELL THOUGHT COMMENT AND REPLY OF MY POST. WISH YOU THE BEST LUCK IN YOUR 4TH WEEK OF PICKS IN NFL SEASON

Thanks, I do my best to leave my emotions out of it when I analyze them. I know its tough for everyone to keep up with all 32 teams and often times we are left to use team stats to determine a team's level of play. But that excludes things such as starting field position, TOP etc... for example against the Bills the Pats defense allowed a TD off of a fumble at the NE 40, and a FG after a shanked punt that gave the Bills the ball on the NE 32. And the ST's allowed a TD on a kick return. NE gave up 30 points, but the defense only allowed 13 points on Bills drives that started outside the NE 40.

In the 2nd half of the Jets game the offense couldn't move the ball let a lone score. Which really put a lot of stress on a young defense.

Sorry for the rambling. But I think if more people on here gave unbiased write ups of their team it would serve the board well.

Good luck to you as well this week. I look forward to seeing more of your posts.

[El Peru]

Well I read this and now I don't feel so good betting NE as pk... 2nd thoughts now.

[ijrod21i]

I would bet all my points that the Pats cover. Why would you ever go against Brady on a Monday night? It's still the Dolphins with a Michigan quarterback from the last 5 years.

[thunderingherd23]

this should be a good ballgame...very close

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

This is going to be a good game.Not only do you have a divisional matchup, but you have the Patriots, who played the Buffalo Bills a lot closer than Head Coach Bill Belichick would've preferred, but you have the Dolphins, who already are down one game in the division.The Dolphins allowed the Jets to make too many plays last week while the Patriots didn't prepare adequately for C.J. Spiller.This game is another tough one to call because New England has a better-ranked offense, but their defense is ranked 27th in the league at the moment. Going to take Miami in another great Monday Night Football matchup Miami 30 Patriots 27

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

REPLY TO ijrod21i >>>>
Brady will not figure out the blitz, Miami will blitzing Brady all night long The Defense did great, but you sure didn't hear ESPN, NBC, ABC, CBS or Fox say anything good about them or even interview one of the Dolphins. Instead they interview Bret and listen to his crying about not winning! Oh yea, there isn't any bias by the networks for teams..- NOT - they want to talk about the JETS, COWBOYS and VIKINGS every night and their great dream to come true is to see a Jets vs Cowboys or Jets vs Vikings in the Superbowl! Pretty sad to see how the media has become so bias against team like Miami that pretty much handle the vikings but didn't get any credit for it afterwards.. Miami's Secondary Corners Are Excellent !!!Thanks to Big Tuna Draft/// ALSO I SENT YOU A CHALLENGE IF YOU ACCEPT FOR ALL YOUR POINTS

[4TH AND STUPID]

i agree with the hat. good analysis. there are 2 types of football cappers 1) that pick the team that 'should' win and lose all their money and beat their wife after she yells at them because there is no food on the table 2) the ones that pick the team that is hungrier and win money


dolphins for the people who understand NFL, pats for the 'gamblers' . take your pick bi***s

[uhuhahah]

Ne over

[samdapatriotsfan]

Yea, like the smart guys are saying...

It's gotta be MIA or no play. The last time NE played @ MIA on MNF it was 29-28 Fins. The Pats have not won a road game in a while. I don't know if the division road on a monday night is the best place to start

But we shall see.

GL All!!!

[raiders32]

I like New England to win.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

NFL UPDATE FROM NFL.COM>>>
Dolphins linebacker Channing Crowder returned to practice on a limited basis Saturday, one day after visiting a specialist for a groin injury that has sidelined him for the Dolphins' first three games, according to the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
Crowder returned to practice last week, and coach Tony Sparano increased his workload this week, only to be held out Friday.
Despite what appeared as a setback Friday, Crowder's participation in practice this week -- and especially Saturday -- likely means the seventh-year veteran and Dolphins starting inside linebacker is closer to returning to the active roster, though that is not expected to take place this Monday night when the Dolphins host the New England Patriots.
Crowder is listed as doubtful on the Dolphins' injury report.
Dolphins G John Jerry (illness) and DE Jared Odrick (ankle) are both out. OT Jake Long (knee) and CB Nolan Carroll (hand) are probable.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Miami covered both meetings a year ago but won the home meeting outright 22-21 as 4.5-point home underdogs.The Dolphins are unquestionably one of the top teams in the NFL and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. There will be a ton of money to be made by betting on them early and often during the first half of the upcoming season.

MY Projection: 11-5 (Tied 1st in AFC East) The pats have no CBs after bodden went down and certainly no one to cover marshall. they will double him all day and i still think he will have a great day. Miami will make stops against brady with there no rushing attack. me match up great,The Patriots stand just 2-6 ATS their L/8 against division rivals, the Dolphins will have one of the premier 3-4 defensive lines in the NFL. And who is anyone to doubt Parcells?


In addition to passing on a rush linebacker in the first round, the Dolphins eschewed selecting free safety Earl Thomas, who would have been a major upgrade at the position. Miami currently has nothing there; Chris Clemons is an underwhelming talent, and fifth-round rookie Reshad Jones hasn't been impressive in minicamp.Clemons ruins an otherwise terrific secondary. Corners Sean Smith and Vontae Davis really shined as rookies last year, and former starter Will Allen is an incredible nickel to have. Strong safety Yeremiah Bell isn't great in coverage, but is terrific in run support. While the Dolphins have gone 8-2 ATS their L/10 against the AFC East. The Patriots are a shocking 1-6 SU off a win against a division rival the L/7 times, while the Dolphins have tallied victories three of the L/4 times it played following a loss to a divisional foe. Look for the Dolphins to bounce back and prevent the Patriots from handing them back-to-back defeats in their own house!

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[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

You Welcome PeePee and good luck on your picks this week

[gshock1]

Nice analysis... I'm on the Dolphins myself.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

THANK YOU GSHOCK1 AND GOOD LUCK ON YOUR NFL PICKS

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

THANK YOU 4TH AND STUPID FOR YOUR COMMENT AND VERY GOOD LUCK TO YOU ON YOUR NFL PICKS

[Nomocino]

That's some good stuff, but gonna take the Pats who also have a division loss to the Jets. I believe Brady does exactly what you said spreading the ball around hes never had so many weapons and should only improve week to week.

Patriots 34
Dolphins 24

[SRBI]

LMAO nice job on that write-up but I got a feelin it was just a waste of time for you pal. Pats win this one easy, Miami sucks.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

TO NOMOCINO>> THATS A BIG NUMBER FOR TOTAL SCORE 58? "We all know that the Dolphins are ultimately going to be deploying RB Ricky Williams and RB Ronnie Brown all game long in an effort to keep QB Tom Brady and his Brady Bunch off the field, but that isn’t the only way that they can move the ball. Without stopping the run though, Brady won’t ever touch the field. Remember the Monday Night Football showdown last year in Miami when the Fins nearly held a 2:1 time of possession ratio on the Indianapolis Colts and still lost"{?

[PeePee]

LMAO nice job on that write-up but I got a feelin it was just a waste of time for you pal. Pats win this one easy, Miami sucks.

Why? Just because it's NE. NE is not close to where they used to be. Too many issues on the O-line and on Defense.
NE had been a poor road team dated back to last year.
Yes, Brady still can lead them to a win.... But that is playing based on "potential" or feeling. Stats give an edge over the home team in this match up. IMO.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

NICE REPLY..WTG PeePee .... Look for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to get going, moderately, and each put up some decent numbers. I like Brown better in this particular game, since Williams is battling some fumblitis as well as that pesky age thing. Projections: Ronnie Brown- 99 total yards – 3 receptions - 1 TD Ricky Williams- 73 total yards – 2 receptions. In what is looking like a major must-win for this Miami team, I like a hard fought “W” by way of a very entertaining AFC East showdown.

Miami 28 – Patriots 24

[nitty48]

I hope miami's luck will continue but i think the pats will win this one

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Two years ago, Miami debuted that crazy Wildcat offense against the Patriots and destroyed them 38-13 in Gillette Stadium, and since that point, the teams are split 2-2 SU and ATS. However, Miami has gone 3-1 ATS in those three games, and that’s a trend that we cannot ignore. There’s no way that I can figure on the Fins losing both of these critical home games..New England Patriots Vs Miami Dolphins Under The Lights !!!! OPP'S LIGHTS OUT FOR THE PATRIOTS