[ScottLocke]

Prob not, not expecting too much line movement this week

[ScottLocke]

Early leans... just cause there is so many good plays this week, best slate of games to bet on so far this year by far IMO. If anyone has any opinions on these game feel free to chime in cause its its gonna be tough cutting these down to 6-7 plays.


Atlanta at Philly -2.5... very slight lean on Philly here

Cleveland at Pittsburgh -13... No opinion, would lean Pitt but I will never lay 10+ in a division game.

Seattle at Chicago -6... Love Chicago so far right here, Seattle sucks on the road and are historically really bad coming off a bye.

Detroit at NY Giants -10... If Calvin Johnson doesn't play I love NY here, Detroit finally got a win and they normally dont play well off of the few wins they get. Even if he does play its still a decent lean on NY

Baltimore at New England -3... No opinion

New Orleans at Tampa Bay +4... Very slight lean on Tampa

San Diego at St. Louis +9... Love St Louis here, potw potential, how is San Diego favored by more than a td on the road vs anyone?

Miami at Green Bay ??... Love Miami coming off the bye here, Green Bay is really banged up, I see this line a -2 GB if Flynn goes and -6 or -7 if Rodgers can go, either way, I like Miami

Kansas City at Houston -4... Love Houston here, most likely my potw, neither of these teams can stop the pass and both are good vs the run. KC can't pass the ball, Houston can. This has blowout written all over it, Houston is also 3-0 with Gary Kubiak going into the bye.

NY Jets at Denver +3 o/u 41... Slight lean on Denver here, NY coming across the country on a short week going into their bye next week, gonna be tough for them to get up for this one as they really just reeled off a bunch of emotional victories vs division opponents and nationally televised games, hoping I can get +4 with the public all over NY or I might stay away from this one. Also, love over 41 here and I normally on touch the over under 3 or 4 times a year.

Oakland at San Francisco -6.5... I really don't understand this spread, it just feels too easy... Kevin Kolb of all people just carved up San Frans defense and i don't know how San Fran can be favored by 6.5 to anybody. This feels like a gift from Vegas but when it looks too easy I normally stay away. So just a slight lean on Oakland

Dallas at Minnesota -1... Slight lean on Dallas

Indianapolis at Washington +3... Would lean Washington but its tough to go against Manning in prime time, so unsure on this one yet.

Tennessee at Jacksonville +3... No opinion, I have no idea how Jacksonville is 3-2 but they normally play well in division games and i'm not going against the home dog on mnf

[bobbyk1133]

Couldn't agree more about MIA. I was going to take them regardless if Rodgers played. Question though. If you are an Eagles fan how do you have a lean on them? Rose-colored glasses? You realize Peters and Bunkley are out? PHI will have 15 rookies on their active roster on Sunday which is one-third of their team.

[ScottLocke]

Couldn't agree more about MIA. I was going to take them regardless if Rodgers played. Question though. If you are an Eagles fan how do you have a lean on them? Rose-colored glasses? You realize Peters and Bunkley are out? PHI will have 15 rookies on their active roster on Sunday which is one-third of their team.

Eagles are very deep on the Dline, and Peters is terrible, misses blocks and commits dumb penalties every week. So while King Dunlap is also bad, its not as big a downgrade as you think. Also, I know the Eagles better than any other team, I'm able to pick their games unbiased. I picked the Skins correctly vs the Eagles a few weeks ago when everyone was on the Eagles and also the Packers in week 1. I had the Eagles in Jax in week 3 and last week vs San Fran so i'm 4-0 ATS in Eagles games. That being said, its only a slight lean and I doubt I will touch this game.

[bobbyk1133]

Eagles are very deep on the Dline, and Peters is terrible, misses blocks and commits dumb penalties every week. So while King Dunlap is also bad, its not as big a downgrade as you think. Also, I know the Eagles better than any other team, I'm able to pick their games unbiased. I picked the Skins correctly vs the Eagles a few weeks ago when everyone was on the Eagles and also the Packers in week 1. I had the Eagles in Jax in week 3 and last week vs San Fran so i'm 4-0 ATS in Eagles games. That being said, its only a slight lean and I doubt I will touch this game.

I'm a PHI fan too which is why I was surprised you'd lean their way. Peters hasn't played great, but I disagree about Dunlap not being a significant downgrade. PHI gave up 4 sacks vs SF and he was responsible for 2.5 of them. They might have a very good D-line, but with Bunkley out and Patterson hurting I don't see how they have a hope in hell stopping the run against ATL. I like Kolb's potential, but the only 2 wins he has in his career are against winless SF and winless KC. I fear for his life behind this O-line on Sunday.

[ScottLocke]

Yeah you're right Dunlap is bad, maybe really bad, I just think its gonna be hard to be much worse than Peters. The more I think about it the more I wanna lean over on Atlanta now, Jenkins coming back for them too, who is a great blocking wr and should help there run game even more. Patterson should be fine tho. Its just really tough to envision the Eagles going 0-3 at home and 3-0 on the road and they've also owned the Falcons in recent years including last year.

[Tower]

Any finalized picks yet?!

[ScottLocke]

Week #6 picks

I decided to go against the Eagles after initially leaning on them, I looked more into Karlos Dunlap who is replacing Jason Peters and I have come to the conclusion that it could get very ugly. But hopefully the Eagles win by a point or 2, then i'm really happy.

Atlanta Falcons +2.5... 2.2U to win 2U
Miami Dolphins +3(even)... 1U to win 1U
St Louis Rams +9... 2.2U to win 2U
Chicago Bears -6... 2.2U to win 2U
Oakland Raiders +7... 1.1U to win 1U
Dallas Cowboys +2... 1.1U to win 1U
NY Giants -10... 6.6U to win 6U

POTW
Houston Texans -4... 11U to win 10U

[udlock4life]

bol tomorrow

[Tower]

GL!!

[ScottLocke]

thanks guys!

[ScottLocke]

awful day, losing 3 and tying one by a combined 4 points is pretty frustrating

[Tower]

No kidding! What's record and net so far now??

[ScottLocke]

No kidding! What's record and net so far now??

Updated record in my sig. Still up on the year.

Looking back, I still like my picks yesterday, except for the Falcons, I think I just overthought that game. Texans should have easily had that game had they decided to not wait until the 4th quarter to show up, they did the same thing in their game vs the skins. The Lions had an ugly backdoor cover and had 2 50 yard FGs in strong winds, how often will that happen. Vikings had a special teams td the changed the whole game, things like that are impossible to cap and predict. Unfortunately they ALL went against me this week.

There is so much luck involved in sports betting and right now I have hit a rough patch of negative variance. I have not been winning any close games as of late. I am certain it will turn and I will end the year in the 58-62% win range as I always do.

[bobbyk1133]

Updated record in my sig. Still up on the year. Looking back, I still like my picks yesterday, except for the Falcons, I think I just overthought that game. Texans should have easily had that game had they decided to not wait until the 4th quarter to show up, they did the same thing in their game vs the skins. The Lions had an ugly backdoor cover and had 2 50 yard FGs in strong winds, how often will that happen. Vikings had a special teams td the changed the whole game, things like that are impossible to cap and predict. Unfortunately they ALL went against me this week. There is so much luck involved in sports betting and right now I have hit a rough patch of negative variance. I have not been winning any close games as of late. I am certain it will turn and I will end the year in the 58-62% win range as I always do.

Wow these rationalizations are more impressive than those on court TV. CHI and DAL didn't really have any matchup edges. OAK were prime candidates for a flat performance on the road after upsetting SD. NY had an inflated line and DET is a young team looking to improve that can move the ball in garbage time. That game had backdoor written all over it. HOU's defense is so bad that KC had more long drive points against them than they've had allllll season long.

I was with you on ATL though. My rationalization is that's what I get for betting against my team.

[ScottLocke]

Houstons defense is bad, yes, I knew that going in. They were not playing all that bad at all until their best defensive player and the key to stopping the Chiefs run game went out in the 2nd quarter. I think if Demeco Ryans stays in the game it really helps Houston. KC converted A LOT of 3rd downs and even a 4th down running the ball and breaking tackles due to poor tackling. Fact is, KC played about perfect for 3 quarters and still lost and pushed the cover.

Chicago was just a small trends play, Seattle is not a good road team, especially playing on the road in the 1pm games(10am their time) So I put a small play following a hot trend, doing that is gonna pay off more often than not.

And you say Dallas didn't have a matchup edge??....uhhhh WAT... Dallas averaged 5.23 yards per play vs Minnesotas 3.76 yards per play yesterday. If that is not a matchup edge then I do not know what is.

Oakland was another team that played as bad as possible and still almost covered, if Frank Gore doesn't break a 70 yard run with 7 mins to go from their own 10 yard line just trying to grind down that clock then Oakland gets the cover.

If you like being on the side that everything has to go right for them to cover, then good luck with that. I do admit Atlanta was a bad pick, my initial analysis was right in that game. Chicago was bad too in hindsight but as I said that was a trends play. As for every other pick, I am positive my side is coming out on top >50% of the time in the longrun.

[bobbyk1133]

Houstons defense is bad, yes, I knew that going in. They were not playing all that bad at all until their best defensive player and the key to stopping the Chiefs run game went out in the 2nd quarter. I think if Demeco Ryans stays in the game it really helps Houston. KC converted A LOT of 3rd downs and even a 4th down running the ball and breaking tackles due to poor tackling. Fact is, KC played about perfect for 3 quarters and still lost and pushed the cover. Chicago was just a small trends play, Seattle is not a good road team, especially playing on the road in the 1pm games(10am their time) So I put a small play following a hot trend, doing that is gonna pay off more often than not. And you say Dallas didn't have a matchup edge??....uhhhh WAT... Dallas averaged 5.23 yards per play vs Minnesotas 3.76 yards per play yesterday. If that is not a matchup edge then I do not know what is. Oakland was another team that played as bad as possible and still almost covered, if Frank Gore doesn't break a 70 yard run with 7 mins to go from their own 10 yard line just trying to grind down that clock then Oakland gets the cover. If you like being on the side that everything has to go right for them to cover, then good luck with that. I do admit Atlanta was a bad pick, my initial analysis was right in that game. Chicago was bad too in hindsight but as I said that was a trends play. As for every other pick, I am positive my side is coming out on top >50% of the time in the longrun.

DAL might have outplayed MIN in yardage, but DAL has been killing themselves with penalties and turnovers all year. That isn't bad variance, that is part of who they are. If you factor that in before the game neither team had much of an edge going into it.

OAK did seem to have an edge and I thought they would cover under normal circumstances, but as I said they were in a major let down spot and don't play good on the road. SF sucks too which is why I stayed away. The under was the much better play.

Not sure what you are talking about with everything going right in order to cover though. Variance is part of the game yes, but there are ways to anticipate some of it (DAL example). My main point is that there are so many angles to a game that it's fairly easy to rationalize the losses even when it's not justified. I see it every Monday on these boards. Go over to Kroyrunner's thread and you'll see a spin-master at his best.

You have a good overall record so far this year so who cares about yesterday. We all have bad weeks.

[ScottLocke]

DAL might have outplayed MIN in yardage, but DAL has been killing themselves with penalties and turnovers all year. That isn't bad variance, that is part of who they are. If you factor that in before the game neither team had much of an edge going into it.

OAK did seem to have an edge and I thought they would cover under normal circumstances, but as I said they were in a major let down spot and don't play good on the road. SF sucks too which is why I stayed away. The under was the much better play.

Not sure what you are talking about with everything going right in order to cover though. Variance is part of the game yes, but there are ways to anticipate some of it (DAL example). My main point is that there are so many angles to a game that it's fairly easy to rationalize the losses even when it's not justified. I see it every Monday on these boards. Go over to Kroyrunner's thread and you'll see a spin-master at his best.

You have a good overall record so far this year so who cares about yesterday. We all have bad weeks.

I admit my bad picks, everyone has them sometimes. But i am also able to see when I was on the right side and still lost. I don't make shit up to rationalize it, you have to remain unbiased in order to be a good capper. And while I am off to a bad start this year, mostly the past two weeks, I have no doubt things will turn around.

Also, please don't come into my thread and start spewing bullshit. Going into yesterday the Vikings had 63 penalties for 503 yards and the Cowboys have 59 penalties for 484 yards. So please don't tell me i'm supposed to anticipate the Cowboys all of a sudden committing more than double the amount of penalties as the Vikings.

[ScottLocke]

Oh and also, Minnesota had 11 turnovers going into yesterday vs Dallas' 7 turnovers on the year... so yeah....

[bobbyk1133]

Also, please don't come into my thread and start spewing bullshit. Going into yesterday the Vikings had 63 penalties for 503 yards and the Cowboys have 59 penalties for 484 yards. So please don't tell me i'm supposed to anticipate the Cowboys all of a sudden committing more than double the amount of penalties as the Vikings.

I'm not saying MIN was a disciplined team because they haven't been, but all penalties/yardage aren't created equal. Penalties have been costing DAL games in critical spots all year and if you haven't noticed that then you aren't paying attention. They did the same thing again on Sunday and you are the only one surprised?

You blame the Harvin return for the reason they lost, but that's pretty laughable. What about Romo's 2 INT's that turned into 10 points? AP had a fumble that turned into a TD for DAL too.

Since you don't seem to have write-ups, maybe you can explain here exactly where DAL had an edge going into this game? To me, the game went exactly how I thought it would. Dumb DAL penalties and turnover blunders from both teams. Flipping a coin would have had a better chance choosing a side.

[ScottLocke]

I'm not saying MIN was a disciplined team because they haven't been, but all penalties/yardage aren't created equal. Penalties have been costing DAL games in critical spots all year and if you haven't noticed that then you aren't paying attention. They did the same thing again on Sunday and you are the only one surprised?

You blame the Harvin return for the reason they lost, but that's pretty laughable. What about Romo's 2 INT's that turned into 10 points? AP had a fumble that turned into a TD for DAL too.

Since you don't seem to have write-ups, maybe you can explain here exactly where DAL had an edge going into this game? To me, the game went exactly how I thought it would. Dumb DAL penalties and turnover blunders from both teams. Flipping a coin would have had a better chance choosing a side.

And i'm the one who makes dumb rationalizations to prove my points...

My point is, you can't predict special teams TDs and turnovers. You can lean one way or another, but its hard to know exactly what will happen, and if anything, Minnesota is more turnover prone than Dallas.

I went with Dallas cause I thought they would win on the line of scrimmage and they are more talented IMO, that and I liked getting the 2 points even though 2 points will rarely come into play. If you knew going into the game that Dallas would win the line of scrimmage and get 5.23 to 3.76 yards per play obv you would go with Dallas. Thats the main thing I look at when capping games along with what kind of spot the team is in.

Also, Dallas had a TD taken away in which I think everyone can agree was a VERY ticky tack penalty. Yes it was technically a penalty, but I think that very rarely gets flagged. Its kinda like holding, the refs could call holding every play and be correct about it if they really wanted to.



I don't wanna talk about this anymore, so lets just agree to disagree.

[bobbyk1133]

if anything, Minnesota is more turnover prone than Dallas. I went with Dallas cause I thought they would win on the line of scrimmage and they are more talented IMO, that and I liked getting the 2 points even though 2 points will rarely come into play. If you knew going into the game that Dallas would win the line of scrimmage and get 5.23 to 3.76 yards per play obv you would go with Dallas. Thats the main thing I look at when capping games along with what kind of spot the team is in. I don't wanna talk about this anymore, so lets just agree to disagree.

If Romo is on the other side of the ball then the opposing team is NEVER "more prone to turnovers". As an Eagles fan you should know this. And if you want to talk about the situation they are in, Romo is probably the worst QB in the league in pressure situations, but if you are surprised he cost his team another win then more power to you.

[ScottLocke]

If Romo is on the other side of the ball then the opposing team is NEVER "more prone to turnovers". As an Eagles fan you should know this. And if you want to talk about the situation they are in, Romo is probably the worst QB in the league in pressure situations, but if you are surprised he cost his team another win then more power to you.

I do know this, Romo is prob the most turnover prone QB in the league... right behind Brett Favre, and then you gotta add in the fact that AP is very fumble prone.

[ScottLocke]

Week #7 picks

Posting my picks a bit early this week, did a lot of research into these games and do not wanna over think anything this week.

Miami Dolphins +3... 2.2U to win 2U
Jacksonville Jaguars +10... 3.45U to win 3U
Tennessee Titans -3... 1U to win 1U
Carolina Panthers +3... 2.2U to win 2U
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3... 1U to win 1U
Oakland Raiders +9... 2.2U to win 2U
Arizona Cardinals +7... 1.2U to win 1U
Green Bay Packers -2.5... 1.1U to win 1U

POTW
San Diego Chargers -3... 5U to win 5.25U

[rsnnh12]

Good luck


What do you like about Miami and San Diego? I am heavily on the other side in those 2 matchups, curious to see your reasoning for taking them (and having SD as the POTW)

[ScottLocke]

Good luck


What do you like about Miami and San Diego? I am heavily on the other side in those 2 matchups, curious to see your reasoning for taking them (and having SD as the POTW)

For San Diego, New England is ranked 28th vs the pass. Lets look at the QBs they have played, Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Henne, and Joe Flacco... not the greatest group of QBs and they all had no trouble passing on the Pats. Now they face an elite qb in Phillip Rivers. I know he is missing some of his guys, but this does not worry me so much vs such a weak secondary. Also, New England has been a bad road team as of late, and now they have to fly all the way across the country for this game, this is just a great spot for San Diego.

And its also pretty much a must win game for San Diego, they start slow EVERY single year, and then when they have to start winning, they do and I don't expect that to change here.


For Miami, I like the home dog here in what I think will be a very close game, so I like taking the points. Miami has a good pass rush that matches up well against a very weak pass blocking Pittsburgh oline. Pittsburgh does have a great run defense tho and should be able to shut down the Dolphins run game. I just think this will be a low scoring game decided by turnovers, it could go either way. I really like the under but I rarely bet over unders.

Also, the James Harrison stuff may have been a bit of a distraction this week not to mention the Steelers play New Orleans next week on SNF and this could be a potential look ahead for them.

[rsnnh12]

Sounds like solid reasoning to me. Nice to see well-thought out reasons for picking a team, that seems to be scarce around here.

As a Pats fan (I usually hate betting on them, for or against, but couldn't pass up this line), I've watched every game, and the defense isn't quite as bad as numbers indicate. Teams have had to play a lot of catchup, especially the Bengals, and the Pats were mostly trying to prevent a quick TD. That being said, they are average at best, although they have been playing better. I think Gates, Floyd, and Naanee being banged up and potentially out will really hurt the passing game, and Ryan Matthews is nursing an injury too. I think this is the 1 game where Rivers plays poorly, then they use this game as motivation for the rest of the season. I don't see the Chargers stopping Tom Brady and the faster Pats offense. Should be a great game, but I see the Pats winning 31-24

Agree with you on the Steelers-Phins, should be a great game

[bobbyk1133]

Brave picks with JAX, DEN, and ARI. I have MIA and SD much closer than the public think too, but not enough to take them. And yur going against our Eagles this week? That's going to be a tough one with Young out. He does so much for the running game it's not even funny. Collins isn't going to have a fun day against that pass rush. He's a cement statue. Good luck nonetheless.

[ScottLocke]

Sounds like solid reasoning to me. Nice to see well-thought out reasons for picking a team, that seems to be scarce around here.

As a Pats fan (I usually hate betting on them, for or against, but couldn't pass up this line), I've watched every game, and the defense isn't quite as bad as numbers indicate. Teams have had to play a lot of catchup, especially the Bengals, and the Pats were mostly trying to prevent a quick TD. That being said, they are average at best, although they have been playing better. I think Gates, Floyd, and Naanee being banged up and potentially out will really hurt the passing game, and Ryan Matthews is nursing an injury too. I think this is the 1 game where Rivers plays poorly, then they use this game as motivation for the rest of the season. I don't see the Chargers stopping Tom Brady and the faster Pats offense. Should be a great game, but I see the Pats winning 31-24

Agree with you on the Steelers-Phins, should be a great game

Yeah I also think people don't realize the Chargers have the topped ranked defense in the league(yardage wise) to go along with their top ranked offense( yardage wise) SO how does a 2-4 team have the top defense and offense.... special teams, TOs and Rivers has gotten sacked a bunch. New England doesn't worry me too much when it comes to forcing TOs, they only have 10 sacks on the year. Special teams could be worrisome after what I saw their special teams do to the Dolphins. Of course, the Pats always have a legit shot with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

[ScottLocke]

Brave picks with JAX, DEN, and ARI. I have MIA and SD much closer than the public think too, but not enough to take them. And yur going against our Eagles this week? That's going to be a tough one with Young out. He does so much for the running game it's not even funny. Collins isn't going to have a fun day against that pass rush. He's a cement statue. Good luck nonetheless.

Young is playing

And I have Oakland not Denver. LOVE getting +9 in a divisional Rivalry game.

[ScottLocke]

Brave picks with JAX, DEN, and ARI. I have MIA and SD much closer than the public think too, but not enough to take them. And yur going against our Eagles this week? That's going to be a tough one with Young out. He does so much for the running game it's not even funny. Collins isn't going to have a fun day against that pass rush. He's a cement statue. Good luck nonetheless.

Also, this is mainly a small trends play against the Eagles here. AND the Titans lead the league in sacks, not good news with Jason Peters out again and this weak pass blocking line.

The trends

Andy Reid is 4-7 ATS before a bye
Andy Reid is 13-20 ATS vs the AFC
Jeff Fisher is 21-6 ATS vs the NFC

Some recent games vs the AFC where the Eagles just decided not to show up

The Raiders last year when they lost 13-9 when the were 14 point favorites.
They also lost to San Diego and struggled vs Denver

2 years ago when they got blown out vs Baltimore 36-7 when the game was a pickem
and they also tied Cincy(when they sucked) when they were 10 point favs

Also, last time they played Jeff Fishers Titans, they were 13 point favs and lost 31-13, not that means much since it was 4 years ago. But its still the same coaches and systems.

[bobbyk1133]

Young is playing And I have Oakland not Denver. LOVE getting +9 in a divisional rivalry game.

Yep I meant the OAK pick. Division game is the only thing to like about them this week. I wouldn't put my trust in Boller unless he was getting a +21 spread.

I didn't hear that Young was playing. I think Fisher is playing coy and he doesn't suit up. You're right about the Reid trend though. They don't win before the bye, and win after. I will be playing the under instead.

[ScottLocke]

Yep I meant the OAK pick. Division game is the only thing to like about them this week. I wouldn't put my trust in Boller unless he was getting a +21 spread.

I didn't hear that Young was playing. I think Fisher is playing coy and he doesn't suit up. You're right about the Reid trend though. They don't win before the bye, and win after. I will be playing the under instead.

Yeah I would lean under too. It wasn't officially announced he is playing, I know he is questionable, but he is going to play.

Oakland has beaten Denver in Denver each of the last 2 years as big dogs. They always play tough in the division. Yeah Boller sucks, but +9 is still way too high, this spread should be Denver -4 IMO.

Also Champ Bailey might be out, Denvers defense is real beat up. Mcfadden will be back and one thing Oakland can do is run the ball. Denver has a lot of trouble stopping the run.

[bobbyk1133]

Yeah I would lean under too. It wasn't officially announced he is playing, I know he is questionable, but he is going to play. Oakland has beaten Denver in Denver each of the last 2 years as big dogs. They always play tough in the division. Yeah Boller sucks, but +9 is still way too high, this spread should be Denver -4 IMO. Also Champ Bailey might be out, Denvers defense is real beat up. Mcfadden will be back and one thing Oakland can do is run the ball. Denver has a lot of trouble stopping the run.

DEN did pretty well vs NYJ last week but you're right that doesn't mean they've solved their problems. This is another game where I like the under. I wouldn't play DEN -9 either, but they look juicy for a teaser.

[ScottLocke]

Brave picks with JAX, DEN, and ARI. I have MIA and SD much closer than the public think too, but not enough to take them. And yur going against our Eagles this week? That's going to be a tough one with Young out. He does so much for the running game it's not even funny. Collins isn't going to have a fun day against that pass rush. He's a cement statue. Good luck nonetheless.

Looks like you are right, Vince Young was just downgraded to doubtful so he may not play.