Hey everyone, I have been asked by a few people in my inbox to start an "official" thread for both college and NFL. For those unfamiliar to me (most of you), here is my background copied from another post:
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For those who don't know me, I'm new to forums, but far from new to the game. Been around handicapping since 04. My system is very detailed and takes a lot of stats and history into account that others do not contemplate.
My overall picks since 04 are around 65% and my system, which is a labby/chase original system has hit about 95% since 04.
**As always, picks are for informational purposes. Use your discretion.**
Also, feel free to check out my posts in the CFB handicapping forum. I'm 16-3 overall on the year and my system is undefeated. Had some good ones this week with Marshall, Troy, Gardner-Webb, Bama, and Florida.
Did lose a few though for first time this season.
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Back to now. I had Bears yesterday as my strongest play of the day. My system let me down. Actually if the Bears could score with four tries from the 1 or catch a 2pt conversion, it woulda hit. But I'm smart enough to realize a loss is a loss. My Titans pick hit hard though. On the NFL season I am 2-1. College I am 16-3.
Here is some background on my system from a previous post:
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I will preface this by saying, use a system that works for YOUR bankroll.
My labby/chase isn't anything special. 16-3 is not a pace that will stay, but I do hit about 65% of my picks using my system. Look above at some of the underdogs I had this weekend. Or go in the CFB forum and check my thread.
Lets make it simple: You wager 110 to win 100 on Chicago. If you win, bet 110 on your next bet too. If you hit 4-5 of these in a row, feel free to move up to maybe 150 per bet. Gradually increase as your bankroll does.
Now, if you bet 110 and lose. You are down 110. Next game I bet 220 to win 200. If you hit (and there's a good chance you will with a 65% rate like my system) you start back at your original 110. If you lose, you have a decision to make.
Sometimes if I'm confident on the 3rd game I'd bet say 440 to win 400 , or whatever the odds may be. It varies. I use more local resources so I'm not familiar with all the sportsbooks. If I win, I've got my winnings and I'm back to step 1.
OR, to lessen your risk, bet 220 again. If you hit, you bet 220 again. Now, after my 3rd game, or C game I guess you call it, I go back around and decrease my initial bet, (ie. 60 instead of 110) or just go back to 110. Rarely, RARELY do I chase a C game with a 4th game.
A lot of systems do that and it can put you in a hole. I will say this though. If you bet wisely with a system and percentages, the chances you lose a A, B, and C game are very slim.
Over time you will win more than lose, and when you lose you dont compound it. You go back to step 1 and let the percentages eventually work out in your favor.
But you don't have to use this system. If you want to bet $25 bucks every game, then do it. My picks are not in any way related to the labby/chase system. They are made outside of the system and then I bring them into the system when need be.
For example, yesterday I had like 8 games I was comfortable playing. I went like 5-3 I think. But, say your goal is to win 300 bucks on a saturday. I'd bet 3 early games. If I win all 3 I can quit and relax, or get greedy. If I lose 2, then I bet on two afternoon games. I bet to win 200 on each to make up for the losses and make 100 profit. If I hit, I've got my 300. If I lose again we can either bet to win 400 on two games in the evening (800 total) or we can be less risky and just bet for 200 on each game again. If you don't hit, cut your losses and restart. If you do hit, you are done for the night.
RARELY, and I will say rarely WITH MY SYSTEM FOR MAKING PICKS, do I end the day without making the profit I want. Occasionally it'll carry over if there are no games that fit my system to bet on. I'll never chase just to chase. The game must fit.
But the chase/labby will fail you if you just choose games at random. If you go with your gut and not percentages, you can easily pick 3 games wrong and end up with big losses. But if you have a system that gets you over 60% correct picks, the chances it will fail you three times in a row are very slim.
Imagine you are just randomly picking games. Its like flipping a coin. You will have a 50-50 shot. But with football with no research, you have less than a 50-50 shot. Now imagine I found a way to make the coin heavier in one area so that over the course of a year it landed on heads 65% of the time if flipped 1000 times. Wouldn't you feel more comfortable putting your money on heads than tails?
That's all I'm saying. If you have a system that over time tells you X amount of picks will win 60+% of the time, you've gotta go with those picks. Even if you lose some, you will eventually come out on top. Even if my gut tells me otherwise, THE NUMBERS DONT LIE!
I didn't feel comfortable betting on Marshall, Troy, Gardner Webb yesterday, but it paid off because the system told me those were the plays I needed to make.
**This is for informational purposes only. Use your own discretion!**
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Back to now. This will be my official thread for the NFL the rest of the year. If you want more info, or wanna tail me, or fade me, feel free. But please don't bet just because I tell you to. Make picks you are comfortable with. I don't like feeling guilty if someone loses because of my plays. But in the long run my plays do hit. It's a fact.
Now I realize the Monday night games have began. For guys who messaged me for my plays, you have them and can vouch. My system had plays for both games tonight. If you got Balt at +1.5 that was the strongest play of the night. +1 is still strong but my system had Balt at +1.5 clear and away. So we'll see if it hits. 3 first half TO's don't help.
In the 2nd game of the night my system told me to pick SD -4. Now if you have a -5 spread I do not recommend you take SD. At -5 my system was basically 50/50 on SD and KC. But at -4 it was pretty heavy on SD to cover.
So those are my picks. Balt and SD.
Hopefully I show you guys some skills and you follow. Be sure to check my college thread too.
Question: Considering the fact that your system recommends plays and rates the strength of those plays based on specific point spread amounts, do you yourself ever, or would you advise others, to buy points in order to obtain the ideal point spread that the system likes?
Example: say the Vikings are playing the Jaguars and your system states Vikings -5 is the strongest play. But my book has the Vikings at -5.5. Should I buy the half point to get down to 5? Or does the increased juice outweigh the rewards over the long run. As I'm sure you know, higher juice prices require higher winning percentages in order to maintain a consistant profit. Any advice or help would be appreciated.
Well the only consideration is on the day of games. If the line fits my system I play it. If it doesn't, I let it pass. I don't pay attention to the % of the people wagering on one team or another or it Vegas is adjusting the line.
My percentages are based on hard lines and stats and over 20yrs of historical data. If a game fits, it fits. It is pretty obvious when you input so much data whether a game fits, or is a square peg in a round hole.
oh ok...just wondering, cuz the RLM probably could have taken you away from betting the chargers, for example...just a thought, but i guess you have a proven track record with the system so keep doing what ur doing ..it was just a thought..
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..it was just a thought..
